Marcus Semien Tries to Shake a Season-Opening Hunch

Maybe it was the batting order switcheroo, or possibly it was the minor league ballpark. Bumped out of the leadoff spot for the primary time since final August 11, and right down to fifth within the order for the primary time throughout Bruce Bochy’s run as supervisor of the Rangers, Marcus Semien recorded his first multi-hit sport of the season on Tuesday evening in Sacramento. The 34-year-old second baseman went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer, a stroll, a sacrifice fly, and 4 runs batted in in opposition to the Athletics — a much-needed optimistic signal given his season-opening droop.

Semien’s huge evening passed off at Sutter Well being Park, the place the relocated A’s and their opponents have bashed out 5.4 runs per sport whereas batting .270/.342/.466. Whether or not or not the venue was an element, Bochy’s new lineup labored like a allure, as new leadoff hitter Josh Smith, new no. 2 hitter Wyatt Langford, and the slumping Jake Burger all homered for the Rangers as properly. All the photographs had been served up by 29-year-old righty Osvaldo Bido; Semien, who had already plated the Rangers’ second run with a first-inning sacrifice fly, crushed a middle-middle sinker 417 toes to heart discipline to interrupt open a 4-2 sport within the fifth inning:

The homer was simply Semien’s second of the season, and simply his third extra-base hit. He entered the sport batting .141/.209/.192 for a 17 wRC+, with all 4 of these numbers rating among the many backside 4 among the many 170 gamers with sufficient plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His new and improved slash line (.160/.231/.247, 39 wRC+) now places him among the many backside 10 qualifiers in these classes, however he isn’t near being the worst on the crew. Joc Pederson (.052/.141/.069, -37 wRC+) is having even greater issues, together with an 0-for-3 on Tuesday, however the Rangers don’t have practically as a lot invested in him as they do in Semien, whom they signed to a seven-year, $175 million deal in December 2021.

Because the signing, Semien has been the linchpin of the Rangers’ lineup, combining energy, velocity, robust protection, and sturdiness. In his three full seasons with the crew, he’s averaged 161 video games and twice led the majors in plate appearances and at-bats. He’s additionally made two All-Star groups and helped the Rangers win their first World Collection, and over that span has ranked 14th within the majors in fWAR (14.8) and eighth in bWAR (17.5). By that latter measure, which incorporates his 7.7 bWAR in 2023 — tops amongst American League place gamers, however nonetheless behind the two-way work of Shohei Ohtani (10.0 bWAR) — he’s emerged as one thing of a stealth Corridor of Fame candidate, provided that he’s crossed the 40-WAR threshold for seven-year peak (40.6), a powerful indicator of future election.

All through his 13-year profession with the White Sox, A’s, Blue Jays and Rangers, Semien has confirmed to be one thing of a sluggish starter. He’s a profession .239/.311/.392 (95 wRC+) hitter in March and April, in comparison with .257/.324/.448 (112 wRC+) from Could via the top of the common season. That’s a considerable distinction; utilizing our Splits Leaderboard instrument and a few Excel magic, I discovered it to be the Seventeenth-largest hole amongst gamers since 2010 (a cutoff I selected out of skinny air):

Semien ranks within the 81st percentile on this odd cut up, which isn’t whilst excessive as that of his double play companion (Seager) however it might assist to elucidate his comparative dearth of All-Star alternatives (three) relative to his excellence as a participant. That thought occurred to me after I noticed Francisco Lindor a number of spots down the record with a 14-point distinction (109 wRC+ in March/April, 123 the remainder of the yr) and no All-Star alternatives since 2019.

I don’t have any clarification for this oddity, but it surely persists and it’s apparently not that unusual. Recall that Semien bought off to a equally dangerous begin in his first yr with the Rangers, hitting .157/.226/.217 (26 wRC+) via April following the lockout-abbreviated spring coaching of 2022, and whereas his last offensive numbers had been unremarkable (.248/.304/.429, 107 wRC+), that was nonetheless good for a 4.4-WAR season due to his wonderful protection. Nonetheless, after a stellar 2023 (.276/.348/.478, 126 wRC+, 6.3 WAR), he slipped to .237/.308/.391 (99 wRC+) with 4.2 WAR final yr, so as with every 34-year-old participant, it’s pure to surprise if he’s all of a sudden on the downslope of his profession.

We’re early sufficient within the season that just some statistics are beginning to stabilize, so the conclusions we draw shouldn’t be too agency, however no, I don’t suppose that is the start of the top for Semien. Just a few areas of his efficiency do stand out, with most of them merely a bit askew — however inside the small pattern, the downturn seems to be greater than the sum of its components.

Swing charges begin to stabilize across the 350-pitch threshold, which Semien crossed on Tuesday evening, so it’s noteworthy that he’s swinging extra steadily than ever (51%), up even from final yr’s full-season excessive (50%) and properly above his profession mark (45.4%). His 25% chase fee is a bit under final yr, however nonetheless about three factors above his profession mark. In reality, Semien is a really disciplined hitter, one who scores properly in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which measures the standard of a hitter’s swing choices. He’s been within the ninetieth percentile or above in every of his three full seasons in Texas, together with the 94th percentile final yr, however he’s right down to the 84th percentile this yr. That’s nonetheless spectacular, in that it’s not like he’s all of a sudden up there taking determined hacks, and it’s up from the 78th percentile, the place he was coming into Tuesday; his huge sport gave most of the stats inside this piece a lift. That mentioned, his 10% swinging strike fee is his highest mark since 2017, up half some extent over final yr and a pair of.2 factors over ’23. Even when he’s making good choices about what to swing at, they’re not fairly nearly as good as common, and he isn’t connecting as steadily as he as soon as did.

Semien’s swing metrics inform us he’s participant who doesn’t have nice bat velocity. Even with the restricted pattern of late-season information from 2023, his 68.7 mph common swing velocity positioned within the thirteenth percentile, and he was right down to 68.3 (ninth percentile) final yr; this yr, he’s at 68.6 (twelfth percentile). His 6.5% quick swing fee may be very low (the main league common is 22.8%), however properly above final yr’s 4.2%, so if something, one wonders if he’s swinging too arduous on the uncommon events that he does dial it up. Each his squared-up and blast charges are down (from 30.7% to 27.3% for the previous, and 9.8% to six.5% for the latter), indicating his high quality of contact is off. He’s by no means lit up the Statcast leaderboard; his barrel charges have been round league common, however his exit velocities and hard-hit charges have positioned within the decrease quartile. Right here’s a take a look at his time with the Rangers:

As you’ll be able to see, there’s not an incredible distinction between this yr’s numbers and final yr’s; Semien’s barrel fee is at present within the 52nd percentile, however his exit velo and hard-hit fee are within the twenty third and fifteenth percentiles, respectively. Regardless of the same performances and the improved barrel fee relative to final yr, his anticipated numbers — which he’s far in need of, clearly — have fallen. I think that has loads to do together with his distribution of batted balls to date, because it’s out of whack together with his norms:

Semien is hitting way more grounders than common, and he’s pulling them way more usually. He’s batting simply .207 on grounders, down from precisely .255 in every of the previous three seasons (uncanny!). That would appear to elucidate a part of what’s occurring.

When a participant in his mid-30s begins to wrestle, it’s cheap to wonder if he’s having hassle dealing with fastballs. We’re entering into smaller samples inside an already-small pattern, however Semien is doing superb in opposition to four-seamers (.333 AVG/.500 SLG, in comparison with .243 AVG/.437 SLG final yr). What’s odd is that he’s simply 1-for-20 (.050) in opposition to sinkers, which he dealt with fairly properly final yr (.273 AVG/.405 SLG), if not in addition to the common main leaguer (.284 AVG/.421 SLG). Of the 18 sinkers he’s put into play, 12 have been grounders. He’s additionally a mixed 1-for-24 in opposition to sliders and sweepers — each of which he struggled in opposition to final yr — although of the 19 put in play, solely eight have been grounders.

As to why Semien is hitting extra grounders, and why fewer of these grounders have gotten hits, I can’t say, but it surely’s early sufficient that every one of this might very properly come out within the wash. We’ve seen Semien undergo funks like this earlier than, and with growing frequency throughout his Rangers years:

The variations in Semien’s underlying metrics relative to current years are small, however they’ve added as much as a really giant drop that, once more, most likely owes a lot to pattern dimension and to the timing of our focus; we wouldn’t discover his droop practically as a lot if it occurred in August, 4 or 5 hundred plate appearances into the season. A season-opening droop inevitably raises questions concerning whether or not a participant has all of a sudden gone over the hill with the flip of the calendar, but it surely’s comprehensible if psychological components come into play as properly. As former YES Community broadcaster Ken Singleton — an distinctive hitter who nonetheless endured some sluggish begins — used to say, it’s no enjoyable to lookup at that scoreboard and see that you just’re nonetheless “caught on the interstate” with a batting common that begins with a 1 (as in, wanting like a capital I).

Whereas the Rangers are off to a 14-9 begin regardless of a -12 run differential, they entered Tuesday ranked twenty fifth within the majors with an 84 wRC+ (.220/.274/.363), and twenty ninth in scoring (3.05 runs per sport). The time was ripe for Bochy to shake issues up.

“I don’t have any say proper now, till I begin getting again to doing what I do,” Semien mentioned when requested in regards to the lineup previous to the sport. “I’ve no say, in order that’s the place I’m at. I hit some balls arduous final sport. There’s sure days the place I come again into the clubhouse after the sport considering that day may have been loads totally different on the stat sheet, if I discovered the hole right here or there. However it hasn’t been that manner proper now. It’s irritating. However like I mentioned, the Rangers are enjoying properly. That’s what issues.”

Perhaps the downscaled venue had one thing to do with Semien’s huge evening. “All of us hit properly within the minors,” he mentioned afterwards. “So let’s simply faux it’s the minors. That’s how all of us bought right here, possibly that’s why.”