The Lengthy-Awaited Jonathan Aranda Breakout

You might be forgiven for not noticing Jonathan Aranda till now. The previous High 100 prospect spent the previous three years bouncing forwards and backwards between Triple-A Durham and Tampa Bay with out ever making greater than 143 main league plate appearances in a single season. He missed substantial time attributable to accidents final yr, and nearly all of his time within the majors befell in September, as soon as the Rays — a group that doesn’t get a ton of mainstream consideration even after they’re profitable — had been out of the working. This yr, the lefty-swinging 26-year-old has taken over the lengthy half of a primary base platoon for the Rays, and thus far he’s been hitting the stuffing out of the ball.

After a trio of latest three-hit video games — Might 4 towards the Yankees, Might 8 towards the Phillies, and Might 11 towards the Brewers — Aranda is presently batting .342/.429/.553, ok to position among the many AL’s high six in all three slash-stat classes. He ranks second in OBP and wRC+ (184), behind solely Aaron Decide. His common exit velocity, hard-hit price, candy spot price, anticipated batting common, anticipated slugging proportion, and anticipated wOBA all rank within the 94th percentile or above. Proper now, he appears just like the Rays’ subsequent All-Star, filling the void left by the commerce of Isaac Paredes, their lone 2024 consultant on the Midsummer Basic.

Any such success has been a very long time coming for Aranda, whom the Rays signed as a 17-year-old out of Tijuana, Mexico on July 2, 2015. Worldwide scouting director Carlos Rodriguez found Aranda whereas eyeing Cuban defector Randy Arozarena within the spring of 2015; after plans for a non-public exercise with Arozarena fell by — he signed with the Cardinals however would later be traded to the Rays, after all — native scouts instructed Rodriguez to take a look at Aranda on the Toros de Tijuana academy. Rodriguez preferred him nicely sufficient to signal him for a $130,000 bonus.

Aranda took his time climbing the ladder within the Rays group. He didn’t hit for energy previous to the misplaced 2020 season, and didn’t climb above A-ball till ’21. He broke out that yr to win MVP honors within the Southern League, hitting .325/.410/.540 — all tops within the league — with 10 homers in 81 video games after being promoted from Excessive-A Bowling Inexperienced to Double-A Montgomery. He grazed the Baseball America High 100 at no. 96 the next spring, and cracked the FanGraphs High 100 at no. 72 in mid-2022, when his sizzling hitting at Triple-A Durham earned him his first call-up. Although he began sizzling, a 2-for-38 end dragged his ultimate line to .192/.276/.321 in 87 PA for the Rays. Alternatively, he took residence Worldwide League MVP honors for his .318/.394/.521 line and 18 residence runs in 104 video games at Durham.

Aranda didn’t actually have a defensive residence at that time. “The Rays have performed Aranda all around the infield, and he’s such a poor palms and ft athlete that we really want him at second base reasonably than first, the place he’d should deal with the ball consistently,” wrote Eric Longenhagen in Aranda’s 2022 prospect capsule, which was accompanied by grades of 30 for his fielding and 40 for his throwing. “That is the kind of participant who you attempt to cover on protection on any given day, taking part in him when you’ve an excessive strikeout pitcher beginning, or shoehorning him in at 2B/3B relying on the place the opposing lineup is least more likely to hit the ball.”

At Durham that season, Aranda made at the least 24 begins apiece at first, second, and third base, plus one other seven in left discipline; he dabbled in any respect of these positions in Tampa Bay as nicely. He continued to shuttle forwards and backwards between Triple-A and the majors in 2023. He spent the ultimate six weeks of the season with the Rays, ending with a .230/.340/.368 (101 wRC+) line in 103 PA on the massive league stage. With a robust exhibiting within the Grapefruit League in 2024, he appeared on monitor to make the group out of spring coaching, however he fractured his proper ring finger whereas fielding a groundball in a drill on March 19 of that yr, and wanted surgical procedure to insert a pin. After a rehab stint, he joined the Rays in mid-Might however scuffled and was optioned to Durham in early June; almost three weeks later, he suffered a strained indirect, which sidelined him for 2 extra months. He lastly rejoined the Rays when rosters expanded in September, and with a sizzling month that included 5 homers, a .507 SLG, and common taking part in time at first base, he completed at .234/.308/.430 (113 wRC+) with a 22.4% strikeout price, a 7.7-point drop from 2023.

Supervisor Kevin Money was notably impressed by Aranda’s September run. “He was getting on pitches somewhat bit extra, and being able to hit from the primary pitch on, and making the mandatory changes inside the recreation from what he discovered in his earlier at-bat,” Money instructed the Tampa Bay Instances’ Marc Topkin. To Money’s level, 5 of Aranda’s six residence runs had been towards beginning pitchers in his second or third plate look towards them.

After a winter spent engaged on his protection whereas taking part in for Obregon of the Mexican Pacific Winter League, Aranda received the primary base job in spring coaching, bumping Yandy Díaz to common DH obligation. To this point, Aranda has began 25 of the Rays’ 27 video games towards righties, however solely three of their 13 video games towards lefties, with Díaz and Curtis Mead accounting for the remainder. Six of his first seven hits this yr had been for additional bases, and he’s been raking ever since.

As Topkin recommended within the aforementioned article, the most important consider Aranda’s breakout could also be the obvious: common taking part in time. The Rays have been awash in well-regarded infielders with offensive talent and positional flexibility akin to Paredes, Díaz, Mead, Brandon Lowe, and now Junior Caminero. Even when a few of them have been tough across the edges within the discipline, their bats have earned them taking part in time, and the Rays have discovered methods to make it work. So too with Aranda.

Aranda has a compact left-handed stroke, however he doesn’t have distinctive bat velocity. In truth, his 70.1-mph common velocity — matching final yr’s common — locations him in simply the twentieth percentile amongst qualifiers. Whereas his quick swing price has elevated from 9.2% to 13.4%, he’s squaring up barely fewer pitches (25%, down from 28.1% final yr). He’s a disciplined hitter by way of his swing and chase charges (44.8% and 27.4%, respectively), and his breakout has been fueled by a dramatic enchancment in his swing choices, as measured by Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric. From 2022–24, Aranda positioned within the tenth percentile or decrease, however this yr he’s within the 88th percentile, and his high quality of contact has improved:

As famous, a variety of these numbers this yr rank within the 94th percentile or greater, together with his hard-hit price within the 99th percentile, behind solely Shohei Ohtani, Rafael Devers, and Oneil Cruz.

These growing launch angles trace at Aranda’s success in getting the ball off the bottom. He had a 54.5% groundball price in 2022 and ’23, however minimize that to 50.5% final yr, and it’s now all the way down to 43.5%. Whereas his general pull price has dropped from 48.5% to 37.6%, his pulled air price has solely fallen from 20.6% to 18.8%, nonetheless a few factors above league common.

Pitch-wise, it’s helped that Aranda has seen the next share of fastballs this yr (63.3%, up from 58.6%). He’s annihilating four-seamers, hitting .379, slugging .724, and averaging a 97-mph exit velocity towards them. He does generally tend to whiff on excessive cheese; his 41.9% whiff price on four-seamers within the higher third of the strike zone or greater is almost 19 factors above the league common, however he’s additionally slugging 1.077 when he connects with these pitches (three residence runs in 17 PA). The trade-off has been price it.

Defensively, Aranda has been superb at first base — definitely higher than Longenhagen’s 2022 evaluation. Take the small-sample metrics with loads of salt, however thus far he has 2 DRS and 1 FRV at first and is as much as 3 DRS and a couple of FRV in 445 2/3 innings there in 2024–25. In a league with a resurgent Paul Goldschmidt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he’s bought his work minimize out to crack the AL All-Star group, nevertheless it was simply two years in the past that Díaz and Arozarena had been voted into the beginning lineup. However whether or not or not he earns the popularity he deserves, his breakout has turned him right into a lineup centerpiece, one cause to pay attention to the Rays whilst they battle to return to rivalry within the AL East.