Let’s Analyze Shohei Ohtani’s Return to the Mound in Excruciating Element

On Monday evening in Los Angeles, Shohei Ohtani made his first main league begin for the Dodgers. For some other starter signed earlier than the 2024 season, that may be a disastrous sentence to kind. Ohtani, in fact, turned the constitution member of the 50/50 membership, received the Nationwide League MVP, after which helped his group win the World Collection. However he got here to the Dodgers to hit and pitch, not simply to play DH, and final evening marked a key step in that course of, his first recreation motion as he rehabs from a 2023 elbow surgical procedure.

I watched each pitch of Ohtani’s one-inning outing to compile a report. Clearly, these are the observations of a knowledge analyst, not a scout. I’ve supplemented them with the Statcast and pitch mannequin information generated in a single day. I’m not the kind to disregard the numbers, however realistically talking, 28 pitches isn’t sufficient for an actual pattern, so the info is extra supporting than main. I’ll begin with my first impressions, stroll by way of every of the 4 pitch varieties Ohtani threw, after which share some common conclusions.

First ImpressionOhtani was giving rusty high-leverage reliever vibes to me proper from the beginning. He opened the sport sitting 98 mph and leaning fastball-heavy, with 9 of his first 10 pitches sinkers or four-seamers. He appeared dissatisfied along with his fastball command, yanking a number of to his glove facet, and picked up his sweeper utilization thereafter. He ended up throwing extra sweepers than anything, although that’s partially as a result of he break up his fastballs into two varieties. He labored out of the stretch after the primary batter he confronted and displayed mechanics that, to my eye, had been the identical as his pre-injury supply. Nonetheless, he didn’t work out his command jitters, and his fastball wasn’t the one pitch that he stored pulling too far glove facet. Check out the chart:

That stated, we are able to nonetheless glean some perception into his combine (even when a number of his pitches ended up within the left-handed batter’s field) and see if Ohtani has modified something about his total recreation for the reason that final time he pitched.

SweeperDepend: 10Velo: 84-88 mph, topped out at 89Average Motion: +6.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical

Ohtani’s sweeper was his finest pitch in 2023 any manner you slice it, and for my cash, it seems no worse for the layoff, and perhaps even higher. It’s a real sweeper, with plus horizontal break. It’s too quickly to say something about Ohtani’s eventual arsenal with authority, however he’s added two to a few ticks to his sweeper since 2023 and hasn’t sacrificed a lot of its chew in doing so. Manny Machado managed to get a bat on this one, however you’ll be able to see each the velo and motion:

That’s the great case, and PitchingBot agrees with my evaluation, giving Ohtani’s slider a 77 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Stuff+ was effusive as nicely, giving it a 143 (100 is common), larger than in any earlier full season of his profession. Uh, yeah, that’ll play. However whereas the highs had been very excessive, Ohtani’s sweeper location was inconsistent. He hung just a few, most notably middle-middle on the primary pitch to Machado. He yanked a pair too far to his glove-side, although he and Will Smith had been sensible about making an attempt these sweepers in counts the place bouncing one or sending it huge had been acceptable outcomes.

Command is a tough factor to regain, and I didn’t count on to see it from Ohtani in his first begin again. His really feel for the pitch was higher than I anticipated, in truth. The Padres made contact on 5 of their six swings, however three of these had been on poorly positioned choices and the opposite two had been Machado taking lunging swings exterior the strike zone to place a bat on it.

4-Seam FastballDepend: 9Velo: 98-99 mph, topped out at 100Average Motion: -3.3 inches horizontal, +8.0 inches vertical

Ohtani’s four-seamer was piping scorching final evening, sitting within the higher 90s and topping 100 when he reached again for further. Sadly, he had little or no command of it. The highest line is nice – two swinging strikes in 9 pitches! However, nicely, right here’s one in every of them:

I’m really undecided what Luis Arraez was considering there, however “I’ll take this pitch if it’s a ball” definitely wasn’t a part of it. That four-seamer seemed like a number of Ohtani’s misses with the pitch. He stayed on all the pieces too lengthy, and solely managed to land two of his 9 four-seamers within the strike zone, with the opposite seven all off the sting in the direction of the left-handed batter’s field. His lack of ability to identify the pitch clearly annoyed him, and he used it much less because the inning wore on.

Location shakiness apart, that’s an excellent pitch. It has loads of life, and clearly the rate doesn’t damage. In pitch mannequin phrases, PitchingBot says it has 63 stuff however actually 20 location, and I’ve a tough time arguing with both of these. Stuff+ had it at 98 stuff (I disagree) and 68 location (certain). Command typically takes longer to return after rehab, and Ohtani’s rehab is unquestionably probably the most difficult in historical past because of the truth that he’s additionally hitting at an elite stage whereas doing it. Lastly, right here’s a four-seamer within the zone so you’ll be able to see the way it seems when it’s not at ankle top:

SinkerDepend: 8Velo: 97-98 mph, topped out at 99, dropped to 95 lateMovement: -9.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical

Ohtani added a sinker on the finish of 2022, however he didn’t use it a lot both that yr or the subsequent. Time will inform how a lot he integrates it into his arsenal this yr, however within the early going, he had meaningfully higher really feel for it than his four-seam fastball. He opened the sport with a trio to Fernando Tatis Jr., however I can’t fairly observe the plan after that – he threw extra sinkers to the 2 lefties he confronted than the 2 subsequent righties, which isn’t often the way you’d draw it up.

Whereas the utilization was complicated, I believed the pitch seemed nice. In contrast to his four-seamer, he had an affordable really feel for location with the two-seam selection. I used to be jotting down how impressed I used to be with this pitch at the same time as Arraez turned it round for a single:

That’s why you don’t throw a sinker to a lefty; the form and Arraez’s pure need to swing mixed poorly for Ohtani there. However that’s one outcome, in opposition to one distinctive hitter, and he was capable of hold the ball low and across the plate, with way more contact than his four-seamer. It’s a heavy sinker, too, with three inches extra drop than its comparables.

Earlier than this yr, Ohtani’s sinker was nothing greater than an afterthought. He threw it 6% of the time in 2023, and that was his profession excessive, what with him having developed it in late 2022 and all. I’m undecided whether or not the utilization is manner up as a result of he’s nonetheless regaining confidence in his secondaries or whether or not it’s right here to remain, however fairly frankly, I feel it may be his finest fastball proper now. The fashions agree, with PicthingBot giving it a 70 and Stuff+ a 113, each elite numbers for a sinker. Mixing fastball varieties relying on depend and handedness is all the fad, and Ohtani appears to have added to his capacity to take action throughout his rehab.

SplitterDepend: 1Velo: 91 mphMovement: -7.8 inches horizontal, +1.0 inches vertical

Nothing to see right here, people. Ohtani threw one splitter, in an 0-2 depend, and spiked it:

I’ve to say, that seemed fairly regardless that it didn’t draw a swing. Just a few inches larger on the preliminary trajectory, and Gavin Sheets may nonetheless be pinwheeling from a swing. But in addition, sure, the ball bounced, and Ohtani gave a bit of sigh of annoyance after throwing it, if you happen to’re curious how he felt about it.

I’m hesitant to provide you my visible impressions of a pitch with only one to take a look at, notably a splitter, which by its very nature has a wide-ranging motion profile. One factor I can say for sure is that Ohtani threw it 91 mph, however I can’t even inform you how notable that’s. His splitter velo vary in 2023 was 83-95; he’s at all times been able to rushing it up or slowing it down as acceptable.

I’ll be on the lookout for both extra splitters or some cutters the subsequent time Ohtani pitches, so we are able to get a greater thought of the state of his full vary of choices. However in a one-inning burst, in his first time again on a giant league mound in fairly some time, I feel his strategy was cheap: convey the pitches you belief most, perhaps throw in a splitter or two if you happen to get an ideal depend to go looking for a strikeout, however largely follow your bread and butter. I received’t trouble with the mannequin grades right here; once more, it was one pitch.

Common ConclusionsOhtani seemed like an excellent starter coming back from surgical procedure. Whether or not he was simply amped for the sport, reached again for a bit of further in a brief stint, or has added lasting velocity throughout the board is an open query, however I’d guess that it’s largely a mix of the primary two. He had visibly drained by the tip of the 28-pitch inning and guided the previous couple of sinkers in. As he works as much as longer begins, I count on his common pitch velocity will decline throughout the board, with the attainable exception of his sweeper; I feel he’ll nonetheless hit triple digits along with his fastball, however sparingly.

Clearly, Ohtani struggled with really feel in his outing. The host of glove-side misses suggests to me that he’s nonetheless getting used to his new supply and new elbow at most effort. I don’t have arm angle information but, however regardless that his movement seems similar to my eye, he’s releasing each pitch decrease this yr. Many pitchers drop their slot barely whereas they ramp up after UCL reconstruction, and whereas Ohtani had a barely completely different surgical procedure, it might hardly be shocking to see him comply with the identical pattern.

Ohtani seemed irritated on the misses, however in any other case didn’t seem like laboring on the mound in any respect, one thing I at all times control when pitchers are adapting again to recreation pace. He took an ungainly step off the mound when he thought he’d must cowl first on a grounder, however it didn’t seem to have an effect on him in any respect, and he vehemently declined the supply of a coach’s go to.

General, I believed Ohtani seemed wonderful. Command is hard to get proper rapidly; it takes a number of time and a number of pitches. Stuff is extra steady, extra predictive, and Ohtani definitely isn’t lacking stuff. His sweeper has chew. His sinker, specifically, seemed superior to me. He hit 100 when he reached again for it and flashed good location every now and then at the same time as he battled his command. One inning doesn’t show something, however outcomes apart, I believed this was an excellent, albeit rusty, outing.