It was shaping as much as be a boring commerce deadline day, with probably the most fascinating rental, Eugenio Suárez, already off the board and no large prospects or stars in play. However the San Diego Padres don’t restrict themselves to the blokes that everybody is aware of are on the block. They swung a large, sudden deal earlier in the present day, getting Mason Miller and JP Sears from the Athletics in alternate for Leo De Vries, Braden Nett, Henry Baez, and Eduarniel Núñez, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported.
Miller burst onto the scene final 12 months with one of many nice aid seasons of the last decade. He ramped up his fastball to nuclear velocities, sitting 100-101 mph and topping out above 103 en path to a 41.8% strikeout fee and a 2.49 ERA with peripherals that have been even higher. He did all that over 65 innings, a career-high workload for the 2021 draft choose. His fastball is a pitch modeler’s dream, all backspin and flat strategy angle, and his slider is almost unhittable for batters pondering “don’t get placed on a poster by this fastball” from the minute they step into the field.
Miller’s 2025 encore hasn’t gone fairly as effectively. For relievers not named Mariano Rivera, that tends to be the case. He’s nonetheless respiratory as a lot hearth as ever, however he’s aiming it a bit much less successfully, and his stroll fee has ballooned from 8.4% to 11.9%. Oh, don’t get me improper, he’s nonetheless been very efficient. Did you miss the half the place I stated he throws 103 with nice form and mixes in a nasty slider? In fact he’s nonetheless been efficient. The decline has solely been on the margins — ERA estimators within the excessive 2.00s as an alternative of the low 2.00s, a low strand fee, and bam, all of the sudden he has a 3.76 ERA as an alternative of a 2.49 mark. His stuff nonetheless appears to be like actually good, it’s simply exhausting to keep up a two-handle ERA. These are the numbers you place up when issues go proper, and 2025 appears extra like a mean 12 months for Miller.
Do the Padres want that talent set proper now? I don’t suppose so, which is making me go full A Stunning Thoughts whereas I take into consideration the implications of this commerce. San Diego’s bullpen is the perfect in baseball. Nearer Robert Suarez and setup man Adrian Morejon have each outperformed Miller in just about each metric this 12 months. So has Jeremiah Estrada, whom I had pegged because the workforce’s closer-in-waiting earlier than this commerce. I haven’t even talked about Jason Adam, who’s on his second straight 12 months of a sub-2.00 ERA. Sure, it’s enjoyable to construct the entire bullpen out of closers, however there are diminishing marginal returns in some unspecified time in the future. The 4 guys I’ve already talked about are the one Padres relievers who’ve come into the sport in spots with a higher-than-average leverage index this 12 months. In different phrases, they’re already absorbing all an important occasions to make use of good relievers. Miller will most likely get the highest-leverage spots now, however which means much less tight video games for Estrada, Morejon, and Adam.
One chance that might clear issues up a little bit: The Padres may commerce Suarez. Preller is not any stranger to purchasing and promoting on the identical time, and Suarez can choose out of his deal after this 12 months. Given the costs flying round for relievers in the intervening time, and notably provided that Preller himself has raised the ante with this commerce, Suarez may fetch a beautiful prospect return later in the present day. Heck, so may Morejon or Adam if the Padres need to retain Suarez and commerce a lower-leverage man with an additional 12 months of workforce management.
That is speculative, in fact. I’m simply making an attempt to determine why the workforce that maybe least wanted an important nearer went out and bought a man so good that it wasn’t even clear he was in the marketplace. That’s the most probably motive for me, however let’s attempt a number of others on for measurement earlier than attending to the return. Heck, we haven’t even talked in regards to the different participant San Diego bought but. That may be Sears, and that brings me to my subsequent concept: The Padres actually simply want starters.
The left-handed Sears went from the Yankees to the A’s as one of many key elements of the Frankie Montas commerce in 2022. He’s been a fifth-starter kind ever since, with ERAs within the mid-4.00s within the Oakland Coliseum earlier than this season and the excessive 4.00s in launching-pad Sacramento. He’s a fly ball pitcher with plus command and fringy stuff, an absolute nightmare in a hitter’s ballpark. He’s sneaky outdated for a man who didn’t graduate from prospect standing all that way back – he’ll flip 30 this winter – however gained’t hit free company till after the 2028 season. Even when you don’t know Sears particularly, you may most likely image a man like him in your favourite workforce. He completely deserves a significant league roster spot, and also you’d a lot somewhat see him take the mound than among the different choices your workforce has thrown on the market this 12 months, however you most likely wouldn’t need him beginning a playoff sport.
The Padres additionally undoubtedly don’t need Sears to begin a playoff sport. They’ve Nick Pivetta, Dylan Stop, Yu Darvish, and Michael King (slated for a rehab begin this weekend) for that. However proper now, Sears is their fifth starter, and including him enabled them to commerce two different beginning pitchers, Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert, in a separate commerce.
There’s even an opportunity they may use Miller as a starter, as Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported final night time. In the event you’re into chess notation, I give that possibility a “?!”. Perhaps it’s transfer. Perhaps it’s an terrible one. It’s definitely an sudden possibility. We’re speaking a few man who lives off of his explosive, triple-digit fastball and throws solely two pitches. Miller was developed as a starter, however solely type of; his largest workload earlier than changing to relieving was 52 2/3 innings throughout 4 ranges in 2023. His supply is so sudden and violent that he handled accidents all through his tenure as a starter: a scapula pressure in 2022 and a UCL pressure in 2023.
The unknowns don’t cease there. He’s nice with two pitches. His third and fourth choices are much less polished. He’s operating a 12% stroll fee in brief stints. This isn’t your standard starter conversion package deal. However after Garrett Crochet’s profitable transition from lights-out reliever with harm points to among the best starters in baseball, and given Miller’s hulking construct, I can see why the Padres may at the very least be keen to contemplate him for a starter’s position. I don’t suppose it’s very more likely to stick. I definitely don’t suppose it’s going to occur this 12 months. However given how precious starters are and the way impermanent reliever efficiency appears to be, I don’t hate that they’re going to have a look.
That’s the San Diego facet of the commerce. The Athletics’ return for Miller and Sears incorporates each high quality and amount. The headliner is Leo De Vries, both San Diego’s greatest or second-best prospect relying on how you’re feeling in regards to the injured Ethan Salas. De Vries is an 18-year-old switch-hitting shortstop who was the highest signing of the 2024 worldwide class. As is customary for San Diego’s prime minor leaguers, he was coping with a tremendously aggressive project: Excessive-A Fort Wayne, the place he was 4 1/2 years youthful than the typical participant. He greater than held his personal there, strolling virtually as typically as he struck out and displaying gap-to-gap energy.
We now have him graded as a 50 FV, proper on the borderline of 55 FV, however different retailers have him squarely in that larger tier. Our prospect workforce sees him as extra polished than toolsy, with already-mature abilities and a precocious really feel to hit. He’s extra comfy batting lefty than righty in the intervening time, to the purpose that he briefly stopped switch-hitting in 2024, however he’s again to doing each once more and appears good from either side.
There’s a ton of projection right here, in fact. We’re speaking about an 18-year-old who solely began enjoying skilled baseball in 2024. I’m enthusiastic about De Vries not for his uncooked efficiency however for the truth that he’s doing it in full-season A-ball regardless of his age. Meaning the subsequent few years are key; the vary of outcomes is very large and the trajectory is each unsure and essential. In two years, we’ll most likely really feel very in a different way about De Vries than we do now. His ceiling is definitely excessive, although, as it will be for any 18-year-old hitting higher than league common at such a complicated degree. He even performs shortstop, although whether or not he’ll stick there as he features power is an open query.
De Vries is the unquestioned headliner, however the A’s bought three different minor leaguers within the deal, and all of them are intriguing. Nett is the perfect of the trio, a 40+ FV starter working in Double-A at age 23. He throws exhausting and has regularly improved his command since signing with the Padres as an undrafted free agent in 2022. His 10.4% stroll fee is well the perfect of his profession, and he’s lacking a ton of bats with an upper-90s fastball plus an array of strong secondaries. With strike throwing the prime directive in the intervening time, Nett has shelved his slider in current months, as an alternative mixing in a cutter, curveball, and changeup. I’m undecided whether or not he’ll be a starter or a reliever as soon as he’s a completed product, however I feel he could possibly be fairly good in both position; he has the uncooked stuff to excel as a short-stint reliever, however his improvement arc to date provides me hope that he’ll maintain refining his pitchability and secondary stuff over time, sufficient to stay within the rotation. We now have him graded as a multi-inning reliever in the intervening time, however with appreciable volatility round that.
Baez tasks as a fifth starter, and I really suppose he’ll debut quickly; he’s already on a 40-man roster and the A’s may use some pitching. He appears to be like like a depth piece each to me and the prospect workforce, with a bunch of common pitches and respectable however unspectacular command. He doesn’t miss many bats, however he doesn’t stroll many batters both, and he will get a ton of grounders. For now, he’s most likely not more than an up-and-down pitching possibility, however he has so many peripheral abilities that he may increase his ceiling a bit if his stuff takes a step ahead. I’d be all in favour of seeing him within the majors this 12 months, even when he’s most likely not fairly prepared. Relying on how the remainder of the roster shakes out, Baez could possibly be susceptible to getting outrighted off the 40-man this winter, however that’s why the A’s ought to give him a glance earlier than they should make that call.
The final participant within the deal, Núñez, had a cup of espresso in San Diego initially of the month and is again in Triple-A. He has ludicrous stuff and subpar command of it. His minor league swinging strike charges leap off the web page, however sadly so do his walks. If he may repeat his supply extra constantly, he’d be wild however unhittable within the large leagues. Throughout his transient time within the majors, our pitching fashions stated precisely the identical factor: elite stuff, among the worst command within the sport. He sits 97-98 along with his fastball and drops in two completely different exhausting breaking balls. His curveball is mid-80s with large two-plane motion. Eric Longenhagen famous that the A’s have accomplished a greater job with pitching improvement of late and {that a} change of surroundings can typically unlock consistency features, however Núñez appears to be the least consequential of the 5 gamers concerned.
The better facet of this commerce to grade, at the very least to me, is the nomadic Athletics one. They’re going nowhere this 12 months, however they’ve a enjoyable younger core to construct round. They turned an thrilling reliever from their present squad right into a haul of prospects that incorporates a potential future star. If I have been operating a significant league workforce and never presently in playoff competition, I’d be seeking to commerce as lots of my good relievers as potential. You want bullpen to achieve the majors, nevertheless it’s extraordinarily troublesome to know which relievers will likely be good in two years. I’d want to determine that out as I’m going by constructing a deep farm system, signing free brokers, and making trades as crucial somewhat than counting on a singular ace nearer. In different phrases, I’d be seeking to commerce Mason Miller for Leo De Vries.
Sure, Miller is presently nice, however as my colleague Michael Baumann is all the time mentioning, workforce management of relievers is usually idiot’s gold. The half lifetime of an efficient reliever is brief. The highest 5 relievers of 2023 have been Tanner Scott, Félix Bautista, David Bednar, Matt Brash, and Camilo Doval. Bednar is the one member of that group who has been each wholesome and efficient this 12 months – and he was beneath substitute degree in 2024! That’s a very unsuccessful comparability group, however “don’t wager on relievers staying good for a number of seasons” is simply good enterprise. Don’t do it! It gained’t repay!
The Padres may not care about that a lot, although. For one factor, they worth the current a ton greater than the A’s do. They’re in a playoff race proper this on the spot and want to make a deep postseason run, and whereas Miller’s worth in 2027 and past is tough to pin down, he’s extremely precious this 12 months. He’s among the best relievers in baseball! Maybe the Padres have extra high-leverage relievers than there are high-leverage innings to cowl on a given night time within the common season, however that’s irrelevant to this commerce. Relatively, the ultimate innings of each Padres playoff sport will function nearer after nearer after nearer after nearer.
That is very a lot a dwell for the second commerce. San Diego could be underwater earlier than De Vries ever makes his main league debut. He may by no means make a significant league debut! Prospects are risky. In the meantime, the Padres are good this 12 months, and their greatest gamers are of their primes. Consider it this fashion: If the Padres had paid $4 million, De Vries’ reported signing bonus, for the rights to Miller final 12 months, we’d all agree that was a coup. This isn’t fairly the identical, nevertheless it’s absolutely at the very least a little bit bit related.
I reserve the correct to regulate how I really feel about this deal primarily based on what follows. I feel that Preller has one other commerce or two up his sleeve. Perhaps the elevated worth of aid pitchers – hey, did you hear the A’s bought a top-25 prospect for a more in-depth?! – will result in a Suarez deal. Till the deadline music stops, you may’t have a look at the Padres as a completed product. That’s not how they function.
I’ll give them a B for now, however with large error bars. I don’t like this commerce at face worth. The Padres are giving up a ton so as to add on the place the place they’re already deepest. I prefer it a bit extra primarily based on what trades they could nonetheless make. I prefer it a bit extra primarily based on some small probability of turning Miller right into a starter sooner or later. I prefer it a bit extra as a result of they’re in a win-now window and possibly don’t want an 18-year-old shortstop anytime quickly, although De Vries was a key commerce chip that loads of different groups most likely would have wished. I’m undecided that is the perfect the Padres may have gotten for him. Even so, this workforce is best now than it was this morning — and deadline day is much more enjoyable due to it.
