Accounting for Free Agency’s Biggest Gainers and Losers

When free agent Matt Chapman signed with the Giants this previous weekend, most of my evaluation centered upon the ups and downs of his 2023 season and the character of his contract, which seems comparatively workforce pleasant. One factor I underplayed within the evaluation was the extent to which San Francisco’s winter stands out relative to the competitors. Even earlier than the addition of Chapman, the Giants had spent more cash on free brokers than every other workforce apart from the Dodgers, and likewise venture to obtain extra WAR from these additions than any workforce apart from their longtime rivals.

Primarily based on the information in our Free Agent Tracker, the Giants have now dedicated $261.25 million in assured salaries: $113 million to heart fielder Jung Hoo Lee, $44 million to righty Jordan Hicks, $42 million to DH/outfielder Jorge Soler, and $8.25 million to catcher Tom Murphy; this accounting doesn’t embody the key league salaries that shortstop Nick Ahmed or lefty reliever Amir Garrett will get in the event that they make the large league roster; final month, they every signed minor league offers as non-roster invitees. San Francisco’s additions is probably not as eye-catching as signing both Carlos Correa or Aaron Choose would have been final offseason, and the workforce nonetheless tasks for a middle-of-the-pack 82 wins after going 79-83 final yr, however the Giants is probably not executed spending a number of the cash that was burning a gap of their pockets. They continue to be taken with Blake Snell, particularly within the wake of accidents inside their rotation.

After all, the Dodgers blow the sector away on the subject of spending, even when we persist with the adjusted salaries as soon as deferred cash is factored in, with a complete of $853.2 million: $437.83 million to Shohei Ohtani (down from a sticker worth of $700 million), $325 million to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $20.434 million to outfielder Teoscar Hernández (down from $25 million), $10 million to Clayton Kershaw (with incentives that may improve the worth considerably for each 2024 and ’25), $9 million apiece to Ryan Brasier and Jason Heyward, $8 million to Joe Kelly, $7 million to James Paxton, and $4 million to Enrique Hernández.

Right here’s a take a look at the 30 groups’ free agent spending. Observe that, as above, these figures issue within the relevant deferrals however not incentives, escalator clauses, or split-contract salaries from minor league offers:

As you possibly can see, 5 groups dedicated lower than $10 million every this winter, and of the underside seven groups, 4 (the Orioles, Rays, Twins, and Marlins) made the playoffs final yr. Free company isn’t the one route to enhance a workforce, however notably close to the Orioles, one can empathize with followers who’re disillusioned that final yr’s success hasn’t translated right into a procuring spree to enhance their odds of getting again to the postseason.

The 30 groups have dedicated a complete of $2.74 billion to free brokers to date, and though that determine will improve as soon as Snell and Jordan Montgomery signal, general spending will nonetheless be decrease this offseason than in latest ones. Primarily based on the information at RosterResource, groups spent $4 billion final offseason ($2.22 billion on the highest 12 free brokers alone) and $3.22 billion within the lockout-interrupted offseason of 2021–22. For this winter, spending works out to a median of $91.38 million per workforce, however that determine is skewed by the highest groups to such an extent that the median is simply $49.25 million; solely 9 groups exceeded the imply.

Past the {dollars}, I assumed it will be value revisiting some free agent accounting we’ve executed previously, relating to WAR added and misplaced in free company. This isn’t fairly as easy because it sounds, as we’ll quickly see.

That is essentially the most fundamental accounting, lumping collectively gamers signed to main league offers and people who needed to accept minor league ones; the latter inflates the counts of a few of these groups nicely into double digits. It’s value noting that the place gamers frolicked with a number of groups in 2023, I’ve solely counted their WAR with their final workforce on the outgoing aspect, however their full-season WAR on the incoming aspect. Think about the case of Jeimer Candelario, who produced 3.1 WAR for the Nationals after which 0.2 WAR for the Cubs. To those eyes, crediting the Reds as including a 3.3-WAR participant correctly conveys the affect of a considerable addition. The query is whether or not to rely the Cubs as dropping 3.3 WAR (through a participant they acquired with out meaning to retain) or 0.2 WAR (reflecting the transient nature of a late-season addition). I went with the latter choice.

The overall variety of outgoing free brokers proven above (277) doesn’t embody 11 extra gamers from the KBO and NPB, eight of whom have signed (all however Trevor Bauer, Adam Plutko, and Yasiel Puig), that means that from amongst that complete, 73 — about 25% — are unsigned. Many of the unsigned are pretty low affect gamers, in that simply 13 produced a minimum of 1.0 WAR final yr, with Montgomery (4.3), Snell (4.1), Brandon Belt (2.3), Mike Clevinger (2.2) and J.D. Martinez (2.2) the one ones above 2.0. In the meantime, 35 of them produced zero or damaging WAR, although to be truthful, that was usually in restricted alternative.

Whereas the eight overseas gamers who’ve signed are counted within the complete variety of signed free brokers above, they didn’t produce any WAR inside MLB. Thus, the truth that three groups outrank the Dodgers by way of web free agent WAR comes with the caveat that the Los Angeles complete doesn’t embody Yamamoto.

I’ll come again to that difficulty, however first let’s word the groups on the extremes. Forward of the Dodgers are three groups who had a bunch of gamers hit the open market, however who have been at greatest minimally productive in 2023, and who all went out and made a minimum of just a few stable strikes. Of the dozen Reds to check free company, together with the still-unsigned Joey Votto, solely Harrison Bader produced even 1.0 WAR in 2023, and he nonetheless was 0.2 wins beneath alternative after being acquired from the Yankees. On the opposite aspect, along with Candelario, the workforce shored up its pitching by including starters Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas, relievers Brent Suter and Emilio Pagán, and extra — not massive strikes, however sufficient to place them on the prime. The Cardinals shed 5 gamers, most notably Dakota Hudson, and overhauled their rotation by including Sonny Grey, whose 5.3 WAR as a Twin tied Kevin Gausman for the AL lead, in addition to Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn; in addition they added Keynan Middleton to the bullpen and staffed their bench with Brandon Crawford and Matt Carpenter. Of the eight Royals who turned free brokers, solely Zack Greinke produced 1.0 WAR, however they beefed up their pitching, with starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha; their lineup, with Hunter Renfroe; and their bench, with Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson to their bench. These strikes received’t win them the division, however they’re a minimum of proof of life.

The Dodgers’ figures on each side of the ledger are inflated by their protecting Brasier, Enrique Hernández, Heyward, Kelly, and Kershaw, however they did shed the still-unsigned J.D. Martinez and Julio Urías, changing them with the market’s two costliest gamers. The Diamondbacks re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and didn’t lose anyone who produced a minimum of 1.0 WAR for the workforce, whereas the one departing Large to satisfy that threshold was Sean Manaea.

On the different finish of the spectrum, it’s placing that the underside 5 groups embody three AL postseason individuals plus one NL workforce that hardly missed it. Whether or not they received all of it or fell brief, their offseasons have resulted in some downsizing of payrolls and maybe expectations.

Within the wake of final yr’s $255 million flop, the uncertainty relating to their native broadcast deal, and the demise of chairman Peter Seidler, the Padres gutted their pitching workers, with Snell, Lugo, Martinez, Wacha, and nearer Josh Hader amongst these departing, together with catcher Gary Sánchez, whom they plucked off the scrapheap and who had his greatest season since 2019. Many of the cash they’ve spent this offseason was on their bullpen, with Wandy Peralta, Japanese lefty Yuki Matsui and Korean righty Woo-Suk Go becoming a member of the fold. The Twins shed Grey, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle from their rotation, and each Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor stay unsigned however unlikely to return; in the meantime their most impactful addition is first baseman Carlos Santana. The Blue Jays let Chapman depart, together with Belt, Hicks and Whit Merrifield; they cobbled collectively a lower-cost third base answer, which incorporates the incoming Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, retained heart fielderKevin Kiermaier, and took a flier on Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez, who spent three seasons in NPB. The Rangers should re-sign Montgomery, however for now he counts solely on the outbound aspect, and so they additionally shed relievers Aroldis Chapman, Chris Stratton, and Will Smith, plus catcher/DH Mitch Garver. Their rotation is stuffed with query marks as they financial institution on Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Mahle having sturdy returns from surgical procedure. Veteran righty David Robertson ought to bolster the bullpen, and Garver’s departure is mitigated by the eventual arrival of prime prospect Wyatt Langford.

For the reason that affect of the overseas free brokers isn’t mirrored within the desk above, I took yet another take a look at the panorama utilizing projected WAR on the incoming aspect. As a substitute of taking it straight from our Free Agent Tracker — that makes use of Steamer, which is offered in time for the opening bell of the offseason, however not ZiPS, which takes longer to organize — I took the extra labor-intensive route by swapping in our Depth Charts projections, which takes a median the 2 programs:

Regardless of accounting for Yamamoto, the Dodgers truly fall within the rankings as a consequence of identified accidents (Ohtani received’t pitch in 2024, whereas Kershaw could possibly be out till August) and regression (Brasier and Heyward, notably), whereas the Giants surpass them with the addition of Lee. Additionally notable on the higher finish are the Mets, primarily as a consequence of anticipated rebounds from Manaea, Bader, and Luis Severino. On the opposite aspect, the Orioles stand out greater than within the earlier desk, primarily as a result of the one free agent they signed to a serious league deal, Craig Kimbrel, is projected to regress. On condition that each Kyle Bradish and John Means have been sidelined with elbow accidents to start out the season, it appears attainable the O’s may add a low-cost starter who would possibly enhance their standing right here a bit.

Due to our instruments at FanGraphs, free company is simple to trace, even when I’ve made it extra labor-intensive for this train. It’s hardly the one route by which groups enhance, nonetheless. For instance, the Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes, who might outproduce any of the starters who have been signed. However within the massive image, the patterns I’ve illustrated supply us loads of hints about what to anticipate from the upcoming season.