Cheesesteaks vs. French Dips: Dodgers vs. Phillies NLDS Preview

Meat + bread + mess are probably the most iconic meals mixtures recognized to humanity. Two of my favorites are classics of Philadelphia and Los Angeles, great amalgamations that make a sloppy mess of whiz or jus go down my chin and, too usually, the shirt that I’m carrying. I’ve at all times lived within the jap a part of america, so I’ve extra sensible expertise with cheesesteak places (I’m a fan of Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork). However the French dip is great as properly — I’ve not less than gotten to attempt it at Philippe the Unique — and I additionally love its cousin, quesabirria. Whichever you like, you’re selecting from two of the heavy hitters in good, informal meals.

I’m not speaking about deliciousness as a result of I’m hungry, although it’s virtually dinnertime, however as a result of the Dodgers and Phillies play an analogous position in baseball: They’re not everybody’s favorites, however they’re two of essentially the most profitable franchises of the final 15 years, and for those who’re an NL workforce, there’s a superb likelihood you’ll need to undergo one or each of those groups en path to a championship.

The Rotations

This yr’s Phillies haven’t been bitten by as many accidents because the Dodgers have in latest seasons, however the ones they’ve had have been important. Zack Wheeler gained’t be discovered this postseason, or a lot of anyplace subsequent yr both, after present process thoracic outlet melancholy surgical procedure final month to deal with probably the most dreaded of pitcher illnesses. The longest-standing legacy member of the rotation, Aaron Nola, completed the common season along with his greatest begin of the season, however it got here after a half-season of basic ineffectiveness and a half-season of recovering from an ankle damage and a fractured rib. That’s the unhealthy information. The excellent news is the breakout season of Cristopher Sánchez — arguably his second consecutive one — that noticed him change into the most important rival to Paul Skenes for this yr’s NL Cy Younger award. Ranger Suárez additionally put up profession bests in innings, ERA, FIP, and WAR, and Jesús Luzardo rebounded to his 2023 efficiency. A five-game sequence with three off days offers the Phillies nearly their optimum rotation, not less than from among the many wholesome hurlers, as they shouldn’t want a fourth starter (in all probability Nola) till the NLCS in the event that they get there, and shouldn’t must go to both Taijuan Walker or Walker Buehler (signed August 31) in any respect.

Los Angeles is definitely in a fairly good place when it comes to rotation well being, not less than in comparison with its regular situation. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are wholesome, and although he didn’t make any appearances in opposition to the Reds, Tyler Glasnow was a bullpen possibility throughout the Wild Card sequence and will additionally seize a begin within the Division Sequence. For the primary time shortly, the Dodgers ought to be capable to get by means of the postseason with 4 wonderful starters. In actual fact, this yr, they’ve a surplus of strong beginning pitchers, as Clayton Kershaw in his farewell season and rookie Roki Sasaki, now again from damage, are anticipated to get high-leverage innings in aid.

If I inform ZiPS to solely take a look at the highest three beginning pitchers in these two rotations, the Phillies and Dodgers rank first and second, respectively, with a chasm earlier than the Mariners. The Dodgers inch forward in a seven-game sequence because of the prevalence of their fourth-starter choices, however I’d be mendacity if I stated both workforce had an important benefit right here.

The Lineups

The injured Will Smith was on the Wild Card Sequence roster, however he made no pinch-hitting appearances in opposition to the Reds, and he hasn’t caught a recreation in a month. Ben Rortvedt did the majority of the catching down the stretch and within the two Wild Card video games, and I don’t assume there’s any approach to not name this a large downgrade. ZiPS sees this as a bigger concern within the NLDS as a result of all three of the Phillies beginning pitchers are lefties. The Dodgers didn’t have a giant platoon cut up throughout the season (5 factors of OPS), however that’s as a result of Smith was within the lineup, and ZiPS sees him because the second-best hitter in opposition to lefties on the workforce (a projected .798 OPS). Regardless of the drop-off from Smith to Rortvedt, ZiPS views the Dodgers are the second-best playoff workforce in opposition to southpaws, behind the Yankees, however in a decent matchup, small variations could make a serious influence on the end result of a sequence.

Even with out Smith beginning, the Dodgers have a lineup with Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, so the supporting solid must be completely atrocious to make this offense not scary. And this supporting solid is greater than satisfactory, with outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Andy Pages, in addition to third baseman Max Muncy, who continues to keep away from the mid-30s offensive decline. Tommy Edman has his moments, and the Dodgers appear to have lastly seen that Michael Conforto now not hits like a serious leaguer. The workforce’s bench is strong, with Dalton Dashing a lot better than the standard third catcher on a roster, and loads of alternative to play platoons, particularly with infielders Muncy and Miguel Rojas.

The Phillies have the front-end expertise to deal with the Dodgers, however their depth is way weaker. Kyle Schwarber is an offensive beast who would have discovered residence with the 1993 Phillies, and I doubt I’ve to trumpet the bonafides of Bryce Harper or Trea Turner. However J.T. Realmuto isn’t fairly the participant he was a number of years in the past, and each nook outfield spots (largely dealt with by Max Kepler and Nick Castellanos this season) ranked within the backside third of the league in WAR. Heart fielder Harrison Bader has excelled since coming over on the deadline from Minnesota, and his addition has offered the additional advantage of sliding Brandon Marsh to left area, however there’s nonetheless a major distinction within the total offensive projections. Discover I say total right here, as a result of there’s some excellent news on the projection entrance: ZiPS sees the workforce disparity as largely being in opposition to left-handed pitchers. Towards righties, ZiPS has each groups as being projected to attain 5.2 runs per recreation (in opposition to common pitching), however in opposition to lefties, it sees a 5.0 to 4.4 runs per recreation edge for the Dodgers. Three of the 4 Los Angeles starters anticipated to pitch throw right-handed, and as issues are stand, the lone lefty, Snell, is lined as much as solely begin as soon as on this sequence, in Sport 2, although due to the three off days within the sequence, he may begin Sport 5 on 4 days of relaxation. These platoon splits are excessive sufficient that if I have been Dave Roberts, I might do no matter is important to get Snell the ball two instances if this sequence goes the gap.

The Bullpens

It seems like a lot of the relievers traded on the deadline didn’t really work out, however the Phillies had one of many exceptions in Jhoan Duran. The highest 4 within the Phillies bullpen (Duran, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, David Robertson) is sufficient that ZiPS thinks that that is one of the best bullpen in baseball proper now, even with out José Alvarado (who can be disqualified from the postseason if he have been wholesome). Mainly, any reliever that Philadelphia is probably going to make use of over the subsequent week initiatives as above common, even Buehler if he’s on the roster and utilized in aid.

I’d argue that the bullpen accidents are extra consequential for the Dodgers than their starter accidents proper now, although the return of Sasaki and the power to have additional starters within the pen mitigates this to a point. I’m not as bullish on a Tanner Scott rebound as some are (together with the projections) given the drop-off in his strikeout price the previous few years, however once you add in Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Sasaki, the spare starters, and the surprisingly strong Jack Dreyer, it’s nonetheless an excellent group, even when it’s a hair behind the Phillies and scares the crap out of Dodgers followers on a nightly foundation.

The Projection

I went with two totally different situations right here, primarily based on how the Dodgers use their rotation.

Whereas it’s only some share factors, the situations during which Snell will get two begins are the optimized ones, not less than based on ZiPS. In any case, the projections recommend a small, however constant edge for the Dodgers, with their slight offensive benefit outweighing a slight bullpen drawback and the Phillies’ getting residence area benefit.

We’re not going to settle any sandwich debates within the subsequent week, however we are going to discover out which certainly one of these groups will go residence hungry, with the bitter aftertaste of an early postseason elimination.