The Western Convention’s Southwest Division would possibly simply be probably the most intriguing in all the NBA this upcoming season, with a league-high 4 groups we challenge will win no less than 45 video games in 2025-26.
The Houston Rockets start the primary season of the Kevin Durant period with sky-high expectations after incomes the No. 2 general seed within the Western Convention with 52 wins final 12 months. The Memphis Grizzlies are hoping to maintain Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson wholesome for the rest of the season to keep away from a second straight journey to the play-in spherical, whereas the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs look to capitalize on an injection of younger expertise within the type of the last decade’s two most prized prospects.
Houston Rockets
Final season: 52-30
Predicted 2025-26 document: 54-29
Tier: Western Convention contenders
Write up: The overall consensus following the Rockets’ Sport 7 loss to Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors within the opening spherical of final season’s playoffs was the Houston Rockets, regardless of successful 52 video games and incomes the No. 2 general seed within the Western Convention, have been nonetheless a star away from legitimately contending for an NBA Championship.
Effectively, they received their transformative star. Type of. Houston acquired 37-year-old Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns in alternate for Jalen Inexperienced and Dillon Brooks. Durant, in fact, stays one of many league’s finest scorers and among the finest scorers in league historical past at that, however he’s actually not getting any youthful and his stint with the Suns didn’t precisely produce encouraging workforce outcomes.
Regardless, I anticipate the Rockets to be a a lot better and extra well-rounded offensive workforce with Durant’s talent set and intelligence on board. The distinction in common season win whole could also be negligible as a consequence of how a lot Houston overachieved final season, however it must be a much more formidable risk within the postseason.
Memphis Grizzlies
Final season: 47-35
Predicted 2025-26 document: 49-33
Tier: Not a workforce you need to face within the playoffs
Write up: The principle determinant in whether or not the Grizzlies could have a profitable season or not is the well being of stars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., each of whom have been nursing accidents suffered both throughout the offseason or in coaching camp which have put their well being in query to begin the season.
With the presumption that this doesn’t develop into a lingering subject for both participant, the Grizzlies must be proper round that 48-50 win mark that they neared final season. Remember, they received 47 video games final season, regardless of Morant lacking 32 video games as a consequence of damage.
The lack of Desmond Bane, who was traded to Orlando, might be felt early on within the season whereas Morant and Jackson work their manner again to 100%, however I anticipate Memphis to finally discover its manner simply advantageous with out him. Like Houston, nonetheless, the win enhance could also be negligible as a result of it overachieved within the win column in 2024-25, given the circumstances Memphis confronted.
Dallas Mavericks
Final season: 39-43
Predicted 2025-26 document: 46-36
Tier: Playoff contenders
Write up: It looks like the Mavericks are receiving the broadest vary of opinions from pundits and analysts, with some very credible people suggesting the workforce is a legit championship risk, whereas others query the workforce’s capacity to make the playoffs in any respect if Kyrie Irving doesn’t have a immediate return from the ACL tear he suffered in March.
Whereas I anticipate the Mavericks to inch close to that 50-win mark, they’ll nonetheless doubtless should make their manner out of the play-in spherical, contemplating the power of the Western Convention as a complete. Cooper Flagg must be a direct affect participant for Dallas, and his growth has been so fast that it isn’t far-fetched to consider he may progress right into a essential contributor late within the season, which might solely enhance the Mavs’ probabilities at making a splash within the postseason, no matter how they get there.
San Antonio Spurs
Final season: 34-48
Predicted 2025-26 document: 43-39
Tier: Welcome to the postseason, Wemby
Write up: Assuming Victor Wembanyama can preserve his well being late into the season, this must be the primary 12 months we see San Antonio take the leap from a workforce we consider might be a playoff risk sooner or later to a workforce that’s a playoff risk within the current.
Earlier than a scary blood clot scenario in his shoulder shortened his sophomore marketing campaign final 12 months, Wembanyama was basically a shoo-in to win the Defensive Participant of the Yr Award. Contemplating the truth that a celebrity’s third season is broadly thought-about the 12 months the place they make their most pivotal soar, the model of Wembanyama that we see this season may very well be downright scary.
A full offseason with De’Aaron Fox within the fold ought to solely profit the workforce’s cohesion, and the addition of No. 2 general choose Dylan Harper to a backcourt that already included Fox and reigning NBA Rookie of the Yr Stephon Fort is a recipe for a tangible enchancment.
New Orleans Pelicans
Final season: 21-61
Predicted 2025-26 document: 30-53
Tier: Higher, however nonetheless dangerous
Write up: The New Orleans Pelicans remade their roster round star Zion Williamson this offseason, including two gamers with NBA championship expertise in Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney. Whereas some might even see that as New Orleans attempting to ascertain some sort of significant core round its former No. 1 general choose, it may be seen as a warning to Williamson that that is the final alternative for the star ahead to show he will be the anchor of an NBA franchise.
If this season goes unsuccessfully, which it most certainly will, it’s laborious to think about a motive why the Pelicans would proceed forcing the Williamson experiment. Nevertheless, one subject with buying and selling Williamson is that the Pelicans’ entrance workplace is so inept that the return would doubtless be laughable.
Up Subsequent
Our subsequent and closing preseason NBA preview will function the Northwest Division. After that we’ll dish on our unique playoff projections!
