The Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor are within the closing levels of understanding a five-year contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan studies. The deal will grow to be official when Naylor passes a bodily, in accordance with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. WHDH’s Ari Alexander studies that the contract is within the vary of $90MM-$100MM. Naylor is represented by ISE Baseball.
Assuming the deal crosses the end line, Naylor turns into the primary headline title of the 2025-26 free agent class to land a brand new contract, simply two weeks after the World Collection concluded. It counts as a shock to see any main free agent signal their subsequent contract this rapidly, even earlier than the gamers who obtained qualifying presents have made their selections. (Naylor was notably not eligible for a QO, since he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners through the season.)
MLB Commerce Rumors ranked Naylor twelfth on our checklist of the offseason’s prime 50 free brokers, and the five-year time period matches our projection that Naylor would obtain a five-year, $90MM deal. The five-year size of Naylor’s contract additionally matches the longest free agent deal the Mariners have given out throughout Jerry Dipoto’s decade accountable for Seattle’s baseball operations division. The M’s inked Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM pact through the 2021-22 offseason, and Ray’s contract and Yusei Kikuchi’s four-year, $56MM deal in January 2019 have been the one free agent offers of the Dipoto period to exceed even two years.
There are a number of causes behind the dearth of huge free agent strikes. The Mariners’ notorious 10-year, $240MM cope with Robinson Cano from December 2013 may’ve led to some organizational wariness over blockbuster signings. Since John Stanton’s possession group purchased the staff in 2016, the M’s have solely as soon as completed a season with a top-10 payroll, and are solely transferring again into the center vary of spending league-wide. There’s additionally “Dealer Jerry’s” personal private choice to construct rosters by way of trades slightly than free brokers, as Dipoto has grow to be identified for being very lively in negotiating swaps. Gamers might have had misgivings about becoming a member of a Mariners staff that has two simply postseason appearances within the final 24 seasons, and hitters specifically weren’t precisely lining as much as play in a notoriously pitcher-friendly setting.
With all of this in thoughts, there was such mutual curiosity between Naylor and the Mariners that it actually appeared just like the staff was very prepared to stretch past its regular free agent consolation zone. Dipoto was open in telling the media — together with Darragh McDonald on the MLBTR Podcast again in September — that re-signing Naylor was a precedence for the group, and Naylor himself was simply as effusive in how a lot he loved taking part in in Seattle.
Contemplating how Naylor carried out after arriving within the Pacific Northwest, it’s simple to see why each side moved rapidly on a long-term deal. Naylor was already having fun with a powerful season with the Diamondbacks, however with Arizona falling out of competition, the D’Backs dealt the slugger per week earlier than the commerce deadline, touchdown rookie left-hander Brandyn Garcia and pitching prospect Ashton Izzi.
Naylor proceeded to hit .299/.341/.490 with 9 homers and 19 stolen bases (and not using a single caught stealing) over 210 regular-season plate appearances for the M’s, and he adopted that up with a .340/.392/.574 slash line over 51 postseason PA. Including this kind of pop into the lineup was maybe the first motive the Mariners gained the AL West, after which outlasted the Tigers within the ALDS earlier than falling simply wanting the primary World Collection berth in franchise historical past in shedding the ALCS to the Blue Jays in seven video games.
This sort of success made the Mariners need to kind of convey the band again collectively for 2026, which was no small feat since Naylor, Jorge Polanco, and Eugenio Suarez (amongst others) have been all set without cost company. Re-signing Naylor is the primary main domino to fall, and it how stays to be seen if both Polanco or Suarez can be retained within the wake of the staff’s sizeable dedication in Naylor. The M’s entered the offseason with roughly $34MM to spend, in accordance with Dipoto’s statements after the playoff run was over, with extra money probably accessible on the deadline if extra in-season reinforcements have been required.
For now, the Mariners and their followers can no less than benefit from the concept of Naylor suiting up at T-Cellular Park for the subsequent 5 seasons. Naylor turns 29 in June, so his contract will run by means of his age-33 season. There was some league-wide hesitancy lately about giving main contracts to first base-only gamers (particularly as these gamers enter their 30’s), but Naylor’s manufacturing exterior of simply his stretch run with the Mariners makes him a strong alternative for a five-year funding.
Naylor’s 128 wRC+ in 2025 was a profession excessive, narrowly topping the 127 wRC+ he posted with the Guardians in 2023. Since rising as a daily with Cleveland in 2022, Naylor has hit .275/.336/.464 with 88 residence runs, translating to a 123 wRC+ and 9.9 fWAR over the past 4 seasons. His barrel and hard-hit ball charges are okay however uninspiring, and his stroll charge from 2022-25 was beneath common, so Naylor doesn’t precisely match the profile of a traditional slugging first baseman.
His largest offensive weapon is his means to make contact, as Naylor is among the many league’s tougher gamers to strike out although he’s susceptible to chasing pitches off the plate. There’s additionally the amusing oddity of Naylor’s 30-for-32 document at stealing bases in 2025, which speaks to his ability as an opportunistic baserunner regardless of being one of many slowest gamers in baseball. Defensively, public metrics are combined on his glovework. The Outs Above Common metric has him solidly above common with +12 OAA, whereas his -6 Defensive Runs Saved paints a less-flattering image of his work at first base.
Naylor joins Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez as Seattle gamers locked up by means of no less than the 2029 season, and Rodriguez’s deal may really lengthen by means of 2039 relying on an advanced set of choices following the 2029 marketing campaign. These three All-Star place gamers, veteran righty Luis Castillo, and a core of homegrown starters (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller) have grow to be the constructing blocks of an AL West title staff that appears to stay aggressive for no less than the remainder of the last decade.
Although many pundits — together with three of us at MLBTR — predicted Naylor would re-sign the Mariners, the truth that he has discovered a brand new deal so immediately creates an fascinating ripple impact on the remainder of the free agent class. Groups in want of lineup assist have one much less huge bat to contemplate, and the primary base market specifically has now misplaced a reputation many groups would’ve thought-about as maybe a most well-liked various to Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakami, or Kazuma Okamoto. Murakami or Okamoto may very well be deployed at third base and Cody Bellinger may very well be seen as a primary baseman or outfielder in equal measure, relying on a suitor’s wants.
Inset photograph courtesy of Stephen Brashear — Imagn Pictures
