Alcaraz's final nullifier: Contained in the Spaniard's first-serve return success

ATP Tour

Alcaraz’s final nullifier: Contained in the Spaniard’s first-serve return success

Infosys ATP Past The Numbers digs into the Spaniard’s dominance

December 22, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz possesses the last word nullifier in his arsenal.

The ATP Yr-Finish No. 1 offered by PIF is a dynamic all-around participant who places on a present along with his shotmaking. However his secret weapon is his first-serve return.

Based on an Infosys ATP Past The Numbers evaluation, Alcaraz has led the Tour in first-serve return factors gained in three consecutive seasons. In 2025, the Spaniard gained 35 per cent of these factors, with solely Jannik Sinner (33.6%) and Francisco Cerundolo (33.4%) profitable greater than 33 per cent.

First-Serve Return Factors Received (2025)

The primary serve is a key weapon on the ATP Tour, with many gamers placing foes on the again foot instantly and incomes loads of free factors. Even the Spaniard wins simply a couple of out of each three first-serve return factors. That’s the reason his edge over his rivals within the class is much more vital. 

The 22-year-old’s 35 per cent win fee towards first serves in 2025 was no less than 10 per cent higher than seven of the opposite 9 gamers who completed within the year-end Prime 10.  

2025 Yr-Finish Prime 10: First-Serve Return Factors Received

*Draper shouldn’t be listed on the leaderboard because of not assembly the minimal variety of matches performed, however would have slotted in at ninth.

Alcaraz’s first-serve return profitable proportion was 33.9 per cent higher than World No. 9 Ben Shelton’s (26.2%) and 33.2 per cent higher than World No. 6 Taylor Fritz’s (26.3%). 

This was not a one-year success story, both. Alcaraz has dominated the class for years. Relationship again to his first season on the ATP Tour in 2021, the 24-time tour-level titlist has by no means completed outdoors of the highest 5 on Tour.

Over the previous three years, no person has been near Alcaraz. His 35 per cent win fee towards first serves since 2023 is greater than six per cent higher than Alex de Minaur, who ranks second on Tour throughout the identical interval (32.9%). Daniil Medvedev (32.9%) is true behind De Minaur.

First-Serve Return Factors Received (2023-2025)

Alcaraz tallied a 71-9 document in 2025 in line with the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index. However there was a development in his losses: below-average first-serve return efficiency.

The Tour chief in titles (8) and match wins (71) misplaced simply 9 occasions, and in seven of these defeats he gained 31 per cent of his first-serve return factors or much less. In 5 of these matches, he claimed at most 27 per cent of his first-serve return factors.

The one outliers had been within the Australian Open quarter-finals towards Novak Djokovic and the BNP Paribas Open semi-finals towards Jack Draper. Alcaraz gained 36 per cent of factors towards his opponents’ first serve in these clashes.

On the entire, Alcaraz does a greater job than anybody else of neutralising his opponents’ first-serve effectiveness. That was one of many the explanation why he was capable of end year-end No. 1 for the second time and will probably be one thing the Spaniard will depend on transferring into 2026 and past.

First-Serve Return Factors Received (Profession)