Carlos Santana is effectively into the stainless grid portion of his 16-year profession. After spending 10 of his first 11 seasons in Cleveland, Santana has performed for seven groups over the previous 5 seasons (together with one final stint with the Guardians final yr). On Tuesday, we discovered that he might be becoming a member of his latest, and southernmost, franchise in 2026, because the veteran first baseman has agreed to a one-year, $2 million take care of the Diamondbacks.
With simply 0.3 WAR and a wRC+ of 81, Santana is coming off the second-worst season of his storied profession. He’ll flip 40 every week after the season begins. All of that makes him an ideal match for a Diamondbacks workforce whose mantra was introduced by proprietor Ken Kendrick again in September: “We won’t be spending on the similar degree.” Kendrick has to date lived as much as his phrase. RosterResource at the moment has Arizona projected for a payroll of $173 million, down from $188 million in 2025. Santana stated final yr that the Diamondbacks had been thinking about him earlier than he determined to return to Cleveland, and he’s an inexpensive bounce-back candidate and an inexpensive possibility for a workforce that’s solely thinking about low cost choices.
Proper now, RosterResource exhibits Santana because the on a regular basis Diamondbacks first baseman, with Pavin Smith and James McCann platooning within the DH spot (although McCann can even again up Gabriel Moreno at catcher). It additionally exhibits nonroster invite Ildemaro Vargas because the workforce’s utility infielder, which is to say that this doesn’t seem to be a whole roster but. The switch-hitting Santana appears prone to share time with the left-handed Smith at first, too, as earlier rumors had Arizona linked to right-handed platoon first basemen like Ty France and erstwhile Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt. Over the course of his profession, Santana has been higher from the correct aspect, working a 125 wRC+ as a righty in comparison with his 109 wRC+ as a lefty. These splits have gotten extra stark lately. Since 2021, Santana has an 87 wRC+ as a lefty and a 119 mark as a righty.
Earlier in his profession, Santana was a really glorious hitter. Over his first 10 years within the majors, he posted a 123 wRC+, falling beneath 115 simply twice in that interval. Extra not too long ago, he’s been nearer to a league-average hitter, with a mixed 99 wRC+ from 2020 to 2024.
In 2025, again in Cleveland for the primary time in 5 years, Santana bought off to a scorching begin. Via June 1, he had a 121 wRC+. He made the Guardians look sensible by spending $12 million on his one-year deal. Nevertheless, from that time ahead, he was, as the youngsters say, buns. After June 1, Santana batted simply .184 with a wRC+ of 47. The Guardians launched him in late August, and though the Cubs picked him up, they deployed him in simply eight video games as a platoon first baseman towards left-handed pitching. We are able to’t even blame this downturn on a FanGraphs curse, as a result of Ben Clemens waited to write down about Santana’s scorching begin till June 6. (Effectively, perhaps we are able to, as a result of though his manufacturing had declined, Santana was nonetheless on a 14-game hitting streak. That streak died the day Ben’s article got here out, so, yeah, it’s all Ben’s fault.)
I’m going to be trustworthy with you. I don’t know what the hell occurred to Santana final summer season. I haven’t seen any studies of an harm. In actual fact, he hasn’t hit the IL since 2022, when he was however a 36-year-old child. While you break up up his season stats, he simply appears slightly bit worse throughout. He chased a bit extra, which brought about him to whiff a bit extra, which brought about him to strike out a bit extra. He misplaced a tick of bat velocity and exit velocity, together with 5.6 factors of hard-hit price. Though his assault angle and swing-path tilt barely modified, he bought beneath the ball extra, working greater fly ball and line drive charges. Usually, that’s a great factor, however he additionally began hitting extra of these air balls to heart and left discipline, the place they had been much less prone to lead to injury. In that story from early June, Ben wrote about Santana’s sudden capability to tug the ball within the air. That capability promptly deserted him, and the outcomes had been ugly certainly.
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Understandably, the projections don’t count on a lot from Santana in 2026. They see a man who took an absolute nosedive in his age-39 season, and so they don’t consider he’ll flip again into an above-average hitter once more at 40. Additional, as a result of they by no means belief defensive excellence, even when it’s sustained for so long as Santana has sustained it, they assume his protection will crater, too. How far ought to we belief these darkish digital prognostications? This isn’t the primary time that Santana has struggled in a serious manner. In 2021, he put up the worst season of his profession, ending with -0.8 WAR and a wRC+ of 81 in his lone yr with the Royals. Nevertheless, that yr gave the impression to be an aberration, pushed by batted ball luck (and perhaps a stadium that wasn’t actually suited to his batted ball profile). DRC+ and xwOBA graded his offensive efficiency as above common, and he bounced again the subsequent yr. That wasn’t the case in 2025. Santana’s .288 xwOBA and 98 DRC+ had been the bottom marks of his profession. He wasn’t simply unfortunate. He bought worse in some necessary methods.
Nonetheless, that’s not normally how age-related decline works. You don’t simply get up at some point in the course of the season and lose the whole lot. Midway by means of the season, Santana was a productive hitter. When issues began going south, his intercept level didn’t transfer deeper, so it’s not like he immediately stopped having the ability to catch as much as the fastball. His zone contact price really went up, so it’s not like he simply couldn’t join anymore. Furthermore, Santana nonetheless put up first rate plate self-discipline numbers, which led to good stroll and strikeout charges. No matter occurred to him is horrifying, as is the sight of 41 candles on a birthday cake (one for luck, Matt!), however it nonetheless appears too early to imagine that he can’t return to one thing approaching a median hitter, particularly from the correct aspect of the plate.
Santana additionally has one different necessary membership in his bag. Even at 39, his protection at first base nonetheless graded out as impeccable in keeping with all three main defensive metrics. First base protection doesn’t rack up that a lot worth, however Santana is genuinely nice there. Over the previous two seasons, he ranks second in DRS and first in FRV. If he can simply get his offensive manufacturing again within the neighborhood of the league common, then he may be one thing like a one-win participant. That’s nonetheless a little bit of a roster gap for a Diamondbacks squad that hopes to contend for a playoff spot, however it’s not dragging the complete workforce down both, and the value definitely suits their price range.
