The Genesis Invitational is again at Riviera Nation Membership after final 12 months’s detour to Torrey Pines due to the wildfires, and that adjustments all the pieces. Torrey requested gamers to outlive round 12 underneath, whereas Riviera often calls for nearer to 17 to win. Similar “arduous course” label — however fully totally different scoring strain. Right here, you continue to want elite irons and contact across the greens, however you additionally must convert.
I am focusing on gamers who can create birdie seems with strategy photographs, save themselves after they miss the greens and truly capitalize on momentum. Riviera is iron-first, poa-sensitive and separates the sector by means of tee to inexperienced consistency.
From a pricing standpoint, I do not love this board. Most high 20s are juiced, and I am not paying tax simply to have motion. I not often step into High 10 until there’s a actual ceiling case. So this can be a mild card, however not a fairly one, which implies passing is at all times an choice. If we’re taking part in, here is what I’ve.
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Hideki Matsuyama: High 10 (+170)
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Full odds
High 20 (-142)
High 5 (+365)
To win (22-1)
I often reside within the top-20 streets as a result of that is the place consistency pays, however Deki is likely one of the few guys I am snug stepping as much as a High 10 for this week — as a result of he spikes.
Matsuyama’s complete recreation is constructed for arduous golf programs. He is elite together with his irons, high 10 within the discipline from tee to inexperienced, first across the greens and among the best scramblers on tour. All which means is when Hideki misses the inexperienced, he saves himself, which retains rounds alive and prevents huge numbers.
He is gained right here earlier than but additionally has two missed cuts, making volatility a chance. But when his irons are crisp and he finds his contact together with his quick recreation, Matsuyama can soar the leaderboard. That is why I do not thoughts the High 10 as a result of I see him extra as a High 5 — a ceiling play.
Maverick McNealy: High 20 (+115)
Full odds:
High 10 (+280)
High 5 (+620)
To win (41-1)
McNealy is healthier than the market thinks. The plus-money worth on a High 20 exhibits skepticism. Maybe it is the streaky placing or the dearth of bombs off the tee, however that is superb as a result of Riviera calls for management.
Riviera is an approach-first course with missed greens baked into the design. You need to create seems with irons after which survive across the inexperienced. That is the place McNealy quietly matches. He is high 25 from tee to inexperienced, lengthy sufficient off the tee and — extra importantly — exact from the green. His placing additionally helps (high 10 within the discipline) on a course that neutralizes elite putters, however rewards guys who can keep regular on poa and convert momentum seems. McNealy does that.
He does have a T7 at Riviera in 2022 gaining over 9 strokes whole and completed tenth at Torrey Pines earlier this month, exhibiting that he likes lengthy, demanding setups the place tee to inexperienced play carries weight. High 20 asks for strong ball hanging and common saves, which inserts his present kind and Riviera profile. This can be a respect guess.
Scottie Scheffler: To Win (+320)
Full odds:
High 10 (-300)
High 5 (-144)
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This worth could have you wrinkling your nostril. Positive, it feels quick and appears costly, and feels such as you’re paying retail pricing, however then you definately have a look at the sector and suppose, “Oh, Scottie is profitable this week.”
He is the gold customary as a result of his recreation travels anyplace, however what makes this week fascinating is that his irons, that are nonetheless high 5 within the discipline, have been the “weakest” a part of his recreation … and that tells you all the pieces. When your baseline is that prime, you do not want perfection.
He is additionally first from tee to inexperienced and off the tee, and third in scrambling. Place your self, miss within the right spots and survive when greens are inevitably missed. Scottie does that higher than anybody. Even when his iron play is just not as its ceiling, it is nonetheless elite sufficient to generate seems. And when he does miss, he saves par at an absurd price.
His opening rounds have not been sharp this 12 months, dropping strokes tee to inexperienced on Thursdays. In reality, the splits are wild: detrimental Thursday, adopted by plus-three or minus-three strokes gained per spherical Friday by means of Sunday. I would not name that volatility, however extra calibrating. He figures out the course, then suffocates the fields.
The value seems gross, but it surely’s the perfect golfer on the earth on a course that magnifies his edge. Look forward to a greater worth? You do not hand over the pre-tournament worth chasing a hypothetical dip. The books know this sample, too. If he is a couple of strokes again, you might even see +400, not an enormous low cost relative to his true win likelihood.
High 5 at -144 is ok but it surely’s skinny, for a participant whose win fairness is actual right here. If his profile matches the winners’ template and he is the perfect tee-to-green participant, +320 is not gross. It is justified.
Gamers to think about for Each day Fantasy
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Ryo Hisatsune $6,800: That is pure upside. He is high 10 from tee to inexperienced proper now with high 25 strategy and powerful poa placing. Ball hanging right here creates separation and placing simply must be impartial. He has three straight high 10 finishes, coming off a T2 at Torrey, T10 at Phoenix and T8 at Pebble — three demanding setups, exhibiting iron ceiling. The danger is clear: first Riviera begin and common scrambling, however at this worth, you are shopping for strategy upside and up to date kind. If the irons journey, a High 25 is reside.
Patrick Cantlay $9,300: This can be a conditional sure. You are paying for Riviera match and never present momentum. He is gained double-digit tee to inexperienced right here earlier than with a number of high 5 finishes and his general profile does match what works for this course — sturdy strategy play, regular off the tee, and impartial poa placing. The priority is volatility: If his irons dip, that may very well be troublesome as a result of his scrambling is not elite. At this worth, Cantlay is not a ceiling play like Scheffler, however a stability piece. Money and single-entry viable or GPP provided that possession stays modest.
DFS participant to fade
Jake Knapp $8,600: Sure, he has 5 straight high 11 finishes and a T17 on this occasion final 12 months — however that was at Torrey Pines, not Riviera. Knapp’s present run is being fueled by elite driving distance and a scorching putter. Nice combo, however not essentially for this course. Suppose strategy precision and contact across the greens. He is ranked poorly in each strategy relative to the sector and his scrambling is common at greatest. This worth is paying for a current heater, and overlooking Riviera match.
