Becoming Jarren Duran Into the Pink Sox Outfield Puzzle

Jarren Duran loved a breakout season in 2024, making the AL All-Star staff, receiving down-ballot help within the MVP voting, and main the league in a number of key classes whereas rating fifth with 6.8 WAR. Although he remained an above-average participant final 12 months, his season didn’t go fairly so properly, and because the 2026 marketing campaign dawns, his position is among the many many questions the Pink Sox face this spring.

At a time when the Pink Sox are attempting to determine their main infield alignment — Will newly acquired Caleb Durbin play second or third? Will Marcelo Mayer man the opposite spot from the beginning, or start the 12 months within the minors after an injury-shortened rookie season? — they’re additionally sorting by their outfield choices. The scenario is kind of the identical because it’s been since final June, when Roman Anthony, the no. 2 prospect on our preseason Prime 100 Prospects checklist, was known as as much as squeeze into an outfield capably manned by Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, with platoon help for the final of these from Rob Refsnyder. The commerce deadline got here and went with out both Abreu or Duran being moved regardless of quite a few rumors, and accidents to Abreu, Refsnyder after which Anthony (who suffered a season-ending indirect pressure in early September) simplified supervisor Alex Cora’s juggling, although not for the betterment of the staff. Boston received 89 video games and claimed a Wild Card spot, however with out Anthony and sufficient wholesome beginning pitchers, the Pink Sox have been bounced out of the primary spherical by the Yankees.

Refsnyder departed for the Mariners in free company, however the different 4 outfielders are again and wholesome. The Pink Sox even have an costly platoon designated hitter, Masataka Yoshida, additional crowding the image, and final 12 months’s Opening Day second baseman Kristian Campbell — who entered the 2025 season seventh on our Prime 100 and inked an eight-year, $60 million extension only a week into his massive league profession — is understanding in heart discipline, as properly. Having too many good gamers isn’t a nasty downside to have, however it will probably develop into one when questions on enjoying time, contract statuses, and commerce rumors get relentless.

Which brings us again to Duran, who’s 29 and has two extra years of arbitration eligibility remaining. As famous, he’s coming off a good-not-great marketing campaign, having slipped from .285/.342/.492 (131 wRC+) with 21 residence runs and 34 stolen bases in 2024 to .256/.332/.442 (111 wRC+) with 16 homers and 24 steals in ’25. His 3.9 WAR nonetheless led the staff’s place gamers final season, however his efficiency didn’t flip heads because it did the 12 months earlier than.

“I’m at all times upset in myself,” Duran mentioned final week when requested about how he seen final season in distinction to his nice 2024. He could not have meant it as such, however the harsh self-assessment supplied an uncomfortable reminder of his earlier psychological well being struggles and his tendency to be overly exhausting on himself. “I at all times really feel like I don’t do the most effective that I can do. I really feel like I let the followers down typically, or my teammates. It’s a brand new 12 months, so that you simply should flush it and go on the market and do my factor.”

Trying extra carefully at 2025, Duran was significantly inconsistent from month to month, with a red-hot July papering over some subpar stretches, together with three months by which he completed with a wRC+ within the 87–91 vary.

Right here’s how his manufacturing regarded in rolling graph kind:

That sizable peak stretch ran from July 9 to August 12, however Duran didn’t strategy that stage thereafter. All advised, he hit for only a 103 wRC+ within the first half, in comparison with a 124 wRC+ within the second, albeit along with his midsummer energy surge dissipating to the purpose the place he had a decrease slugging proportion over the ultimate two months (.396) than the primary two (.414).

Duran’s fall-off wasn’t as a consequence of accidents; he performed in 157 video games, down from 160 the 12 months earlier than, however other than a scratch in a February Grapefruit League recreation as a consequence of calf soreness, I couldn’t discover any report of even a minor ailment. But, of the gamers with not less than 600 plate appearances in each 2024 and ’25, he misplaced extra worth than all however one:

A few of Duran’s decline was as a consequence of his offense — which I’ll dive into beneath — however some owed to his protection, not solely by way of lesser metrics, but additionally positioning. In 2024, he spent 57% of his innings in heart discipline, however in ’25, that share dropped to 14.4%, with almost all the steadiness in left discipline. Whereas he was a Gold Glove finalist in heart in 2024, the Pink Sox consider they’ve a good higher man for the center pasture within the 25-year-old Rafaela. In 2024, when Trevor Story was sidelined by a shoulder damage, the Pink Sox used Rafaela at shortstop for 82 video games, making room for Duran in heart, however Rafaela dialed again to 24 video games within the infield final 12 months (all at second, after Campbell was demoted to Triple-A Worcester) and ended up profitable a Gold Glove. Bumped to left discipline, Duran went from wonderful metrics at two positions to a slightly blended bag:

Based mostly on Statcast’s elements beneath the hood, Duran’s arm improved from 2 runs above common to 4 above common, however that was greater than offset by his decline in vary, from 9 runs above common to 2 beneath. The DRS elements present a decline within the worth of his throwing (from 9 runs to six), however a good larger decline in vary (from 23 runs to 9). We’re speaking about two units of partial-season samples whereas calling Fenway Park — with an outfield that’s something however cookie-cutter — residence, so none of this want be taken as gospel, however suffice it to say Duran wasn’t nearly as good as he’d been earlier than.

“Enjoying left is hard,” Duran mentioned final week. “Bizarre angles. Particularly enjoying at Fenway. It’s the toughest left discipline within the massive leagues. I’ll simply proceed to play on the market, get reps and shag throughout BP. That’s going to assist me. Everyone knows repetition goes to assist me get higher.”

Turning again to Duran’s offense, an enormous a part of his decline was his wrestle in opposition to left-handed pitching:

In 2023, his first season with greater than 58 main league video games, Duran hit for a 122 wRC+ general whereas largely being shielded from lefties; he began simply seven occasions in opposition to southpaws and took 13.5% of his plate appearances in opposition to them, managing a league-average efficiency in that small pattern. Upgraded to full-time responsibility in 2024, he hit properly sufficient in opposition to lefties to justify his spot within the lineup given the caliber of his protection, however final 12 months, he stopped strolling in opposition to lefties, struck out extra, and didn’t offset that with sufficient energy or sufficient protection to be significantly useful.

As in 2024, Duran scuffled in opposition to fastballs and breaking pitches from lefties. Much less apparent — as in, not one thing you’d decide up from the platoon splits — is that he abruptly struggled in opposition to breaking stuff from righties, as properly.

I usually favor to research particular person pitch varieties — separating four-seamers from sinkers, curveballs from sliders, and so forth — however these aggregations clarified some tendencies. Lefties fed Duran extra breaking balls, in opposition to which he’s been significantly susceptible to whiffing, however he additionally got here up empty rather more typically in opposition to fastballs from same-siders; his manufacturing in opposition to each courses fell relative to 2024. In opposition to righties, he completely collapsed in opposition to breaking balls, dropping 236 factors in slugging proportion and by some means much more than that in xSLG whereas additionally whiffing extra typically.

All of this led to Duran’s strikeout price growing from 21.8% to 24.3%. Taking a look at his monitor report going again to 2021, when he first debuted (he performed 91 main league video games between that 12 months and the following), it’s his 2024 price that’s out of line; his profession mark is 24.5%. A deeper dig into the info helps the conclusion that final 12 months he tried to hit for extra energy, whether or not consciously or not. He swung more durable, used his quick swing extra typically, swung and missed extra typically, intercepted the ball additional in entrance of the plate when he made contact, and had comparable squared-up and blast charges as in 2024. Although he hit the ball more durable — and to his pull facet, within the air — when he did make contact, it ended up making him a much less productive participant. Right here’s the bat-tracking, pull price, and swinging-strike comparability:

And right here’s the contact information:

Duran’s common and most exit velocities, launch angle, barrel and hard-hit charges all set profession highs; for that matter, so did his pull price, fly ball price (25.1%), and pulled air price. But the entire was lower than the sum of its elements.

A giant purpose for that’s Fenway Park itself. Because of the Inexperienced Monster, no ballpark rewards lefties going to the alternative discipline extra typically. Over the previous 5 seasons, lefties going oppo in Fenway have hit .403 and slugged .641, the very best marks of any everlasting ballpark (counting Sacramento’s Sutter Well being Park and Tampa’s George Steinbrenner Subject however not the special-event parks, such because the one for the London Collection). Lefties pulling the ball in Fenway hit .332 and slugged .624, not solely decrease than after they went oppo, but additionally charges that respectively rank twenty eighth and thirtieth out of 32 ballparks.

Lengthy story brief, Duran acquired away from what made him profitable in 2024, and what labored particularly properly in Fenway. Now he has the twin challenges of recovering his misplaced manufacturing and carving out time in an outfield, and on a roster, the place he’s the one principal participant not signed past 2026. Anthony, Rafaela, and Campbell are on long-term extensions, and even Yoshida — who was restricted to 55 video games and an 88 wRC+ final 12 months after present process offseason labrum restore in his proper shoulder — is signed by 2027, at $18 million per 12 months. Abreu, now 26 years outdated and poised to be arbitration-eligible for the primary time, hit .247/.317/.469 (110 wRC+) in 115 video games whereas pairing with Refsnyder in a platoon; although he missed 45 video games as a consequence of indirect and calf strains, Abreu received his second consecutive Gold Glove. With Boston making noise about Abreu dealing with extra lefties in 2026 and providing him an extension (which he rebuffed), the staff seems extra dedicated to him — the youthful and cheaper participant — than to Duran.

Thus, the pondering is that with Rafaela in heart and Abreu in proper on a kind of full-time foundation, Duran and Anthony will share left discipline and DH duties, which looks like a waste of a very good glove both manner. “Effectively, I might be the quickest DH within the league, in order that’s a begin,” Duran quipped whereas including, “Wherever [Cora] and the entrance workplace want me, I’m going to do my greatest job.” Duran might additionally lose time in opposition to lefties, although his most pure platoon associate in a DH capability, lefty-masher Romy Gonzalez, received’t be prepared for Opening Day as a consequence of a shoulder damage.

All of it provides as much as a puzzle for Cora to suit collectively, and an unenviable scenario for Duran. We’ll see if he makes probably the most of it.