You’ll be able to by no means have sufficient beginning pitching. Actually the Toronto Blue Jays can’t. They’ve signed right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer to an incentive-heavy one-year contract with a $3 million base wage.
That is technically his third go-around in Canada; he made 20 begins for the Jays final yr (17 within the common season and three extra within the playoffs) earlier than hitting free company. Scherzer, who’s 291 years outdated, additionally served as a hussar within the military of the Marquis de Montcalm throughout the Seven Years’ Battle.
The intangible causes for wanting Scherzer to return again are apparent. The person is a slam-dunk future Corridor of Famer, a three-time Cy Younger winner. He’s second behind Justin Verlander amongst energetic pitchers in wins, strikeouts, innings, and WAR. (With Clayton Kershaw’s retirement, solely six energetic pitchers — Verlander, Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Wheeler — are over 40 profession WAR.)
The Blue Jays aren’t precisely swimming in youthful pitchers who want mentorship; of the 13 Toronto pitchers on the present RosterResource 26-man roster projection, solely three are beneath the age of 28. Nonetheless, if Scherzer by no means even throws a pitch, it might be value $3 million simply to have Trey Yesavage comply with him round like an apprentice this summer time.
Scherzer additionally has the spectacular distinction of getting pitched within the postseason in 11 of his 18 main league seasons. Clearly, lots of that postseason expertise got here whereas enjoying for constant contenders in Detroit and Washington, however since 2019, Scherzer has performed for 5 completely different groups in seven seasons and made at the very least one postseason begin for every.
As vibes guys go, there’s in all probability nobody in baseball I’d belief extra to will a workforce to victory utilizing solely the facility of thought. However even the Blue Jays aren’t going to spend $3 million on a glorified mascot. They clearly suppose Scherzer (who turns 42 in July, all joking apart) nonetheless has some utility as a pitcher.
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On this matter, the jury continues to be out. Scherzer’s final nice season got here with the Mets in 2022, when he posted a 2.29 ERA and 4.5 WAR in simply 23 begins. Since leaving New York, he’s battled damage after damage. First, he had a teres main pressure that messed together with his availability for the Rangers’ 2023 World Sequence run. In 2024, he spent three distinct stints on the IL, with a herniated disc, shoulder fatigue, and a strained hamstring, and made solely 9 begins. He additionally missed the primary three months of 2025 with thumb irritation. (I used to be about to say Scherzer ought to’ve recognized higher than to danger that final damage, however he’s not fairly sufficiently old to have overlapped with Joel Zumaya in Detroit.)
Scherzer wasn’t excellent when he pitched in 2025, both. He had a 5.19 ERA, together with a 4.62 xERA and 4.99 FIP, in case you wish to blame luck or sequencing.
That 2022 marketing campaign with the Mets was the final in a run of eight straight seasons during which Scherzer struck out at the very least 30% of opponents. Throughout 2024 and 2025, he struck out solely 22.8% of the batters he confronted. Small surprise; at his peak a decade in the past, he was throwing 95 with depraved arm-side run. Now, that fastball is extra within the 93-mph vary with lifeless zone motion.
Scherzer’s strikeout numbers over the previous couple years have really been about common, and his stroll price has been higher than common. The difficulty is what occurs when opponents make contact.
He has at all times been a fly ball pitcher; he even led the Nationwide League in house runs allowed as soon as, in 2016. However again when he was putting out 270 batters a yr, it didn’t matter, for causes I discussed earlier on this sentence. That yr Scherzer led the league in house runs, he gained the Cy Younger Award, as a result of he additionally led the league in strikeouts, WHIP, and innings pitched.
Now, although, these fly balls are extra quite a few, and inflicting extra harm. Final season, Scherzer had the bottom GB/FB ratio of the 156 pitchers with 80 or extra innings. With a HR/FB ratio of 14.0%, we’re entering into large numerator/larger denominator territory. Scherzer’s HR/9 ratio was 2.01, the second highest within the league with that innings threshold.
Permitting a house run each 4 and a half innings spots the opposite workforce at the very least a run per begin, often extra. That’s a foul technique to pitch, and it explains why Scherzer received previous Valentine’s Day earlier than he signed a contract.
That is what each athlete goes by as they age; their very own bodily abilities degrade because the requirements of the game rise. The distinction for Scherzer is that he was so good at his peak that he can decline fairly a bit and nonetheless merely be beneath common, moderately than unemployable. In Toronto phrases, that is Joe Thornton because the Maple Leafs’ fourth-line heart.
That’s OK, as a result of the 2026 Blue Jays have simply as a lot beginning pitching depth because the 2020-21 Leafs had ahead depth. (Man, I didn’t suppose I used to be going to have the ability to pull that comparability off.)
The Blue Jays added fairly a little bit of beginning pitching assist late final season by buying and selling for Shane Bieber and calling up Yesavage, however additionally they went by the postseason with out José Berríos, who pitched by a biceps tendon damage in 2025 however is wholesome now.
The Blue Jays have additionally added two main free brokers to their rotation: Dylan Stop and Cody Ponce. Even so, Toronto’s rotation is nowhere close to full-strength proper now, with Bieber on the shelf with forearm fatigue and Jake Bloss getting back from elbow surgical procedure. However even with these guys out, Scherzer doesn’t make the projected prime 5. Additionally in reserve: left-handers Ricky Tiedemann and Eric Lauer. The latter posted a 3.18 ERA in 104 2/3 innings in 2025, however was relegated to a protracted aid function within the playoffs. It’s a tricky rotation to crack.
That’s why Scherzer’s contract is structured the best way it’s. His base wage is simply $3 million, however he’ll obtain a $1 million bonus as soon as he hits 65 innings, and one other $1 million for each 10 innings thereafter, as much as 155 innings. Which means a complete of $10 million in bonuses is on the desk, for a most of $13 million in complete potential compensation.
I’d ordinarily be somewhat cautious of a pitcher signing such an incentive-heavy contract, however Scherzer has made greater than $360 million in his profession. Plus he’s 41, and a former member of the MLBPA’s government subcommittee. Scherzer is clearly not in it for the cash at this level; even when he had been, he’s going into this association together with his eyes open.
What Scherzer clearly desires is a 3rd ring, and a return to Toronto offers him an awesome alternative to chase that. From the Blue Jays’ perspective, Scherzer’s compensation will mirror the function he performs. If he’s nothing however Quad-A depth, he’ll receives a commission prefer it. If he’s compelled into service as a no. 5 starter, he’ll receives a commission prefer it. Within the unlikely occasion that he regrows his fastball and posts one final 5-WAR season, everybody might be so comfortable about successful the pennant not one of the cash questions will matter.
A superb season for Toronto in all probability doesn’t contain Scherzer assembly all his bonus thresholds. However should you’re shopping for an insurance coverage coverage to your pitching workers, generally you wish to go along with a premium model.
