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Offseason In Assessment: Chicago Cubs

March 25, 2026
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The Cubs deepened their rotation, rebuilt their bullpen, and made one of many largest free agent splashes in franchise historical past.

Main League Signings

Alex Bregman, 3B: 5 years, $175MM.  $70MM in deferred wage leading to an approximate internet current worth of $154,469,510
Shota Imanaga, SP: one yr, $22.025MM.  Accepted qualifying provide
Phil Maton, RP: two years, $14.5MM.  Consists of $8.5MM membership possibility with a $3MM buyout
Hunter Harvey, RP: one yr, $6MM.  Consists of $8MM mutual possibility with a $1MM buyout
Caleb Thielbar, RP: one yr, $4.5MM.  Consists of $6MM mutual possibility with a $500K buyout
Hoby Milner, RP: one yr, $3.75MM
Shelby Miller, RP: two years, $2.5MM
Jacob Webb, RP: one yr, $1.5MM.  Consists of $2.5MM membership possibility with no buyout
Tyler Austin, 1B: one yr, $1.25MM

2026 spending: $80.525MM ($15MM deferred)Complete future spending: $231.025MM ($70MM deferred)

Choice Selections

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Colin Rea, SP/RP: Going through a $6MM membership possibility for 2026 with a $750K buyout, the events as an alternative agreed to a brand new deal paying $5.5MM for ’26.  The brand new deal features a $7.5MM buyout for 2027 with a $1MM buyout, for a $6.5MM assure and $5.75MM in new cash.

Notable Losses

Kyle Tucker, Brad Keller, Owen Caissie, Andrew Kittredge, Drew Pomeranz, Reese McGuire, Justin Turner, Willi Castro, Taylor Rogers, Ryan Brasier, Eli Morgan, Aaron Civale, Michael Soroka

The Cubs’ offseason kicked off with a sequence of possibility choices concerning starter Shota Imanaga.  Given the group’s lack of religion in Imanaga on the finish of final season, these went as anticipated: the membership declined their three-year possibility, and Imanaga declined his two-year possibility.

The Cubs’ choice to then concern Imanaga a one-year qualifying provide price $22.025MM got here as a shock.  With large offseason plans, why threat tying up that a lot cash on him in mid-November? Maybe the Cubs thought the 32-year-old would discover a higher deal elsewhere, netting them a mid-70s decide within the 2026 draft.

However the group actually understood it was doable Imanaga would discover the market and elect to return to Chicago on the QO, and that’s what he did.  Imanaga is a strong mid-rotation starter, one-year offers are not often an issue, and restored velocity this spring might result in a season extra like his glorious 2024.

The one detriment to the Imanaga gambit can be if the Cubs discovered themselves pinching pennies elsewhere to make up for it.  On the identical day Imanaga turned a free agent – earlier than qualifying gives had been due – the Cubs did make a financially-motivated transfer.  Regardless of a number of of Craig Counsell’s different trusted relievers coming into free company, the Cubs shipped Andrew Kittredge again to Baltimore quite than decide up his $9MM membership possibility.

Kittredge, 36, was glorious in 21 2/3 innings for the Cubs after coming over on the commerce deadline, and was Counsell’s highest-leverage reliever within the playoffs.  He’s been slowed by shoulder irritation this spring, however again in November, I believed the Cubs would welcome him again to their bullpen.  The Kittredge choice was curious, however 36-year-old pitchers are fickle, and $9MM tends to be the highest vary of what Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is prepared to spend for one season of a reliever.  The Cubs did convey swingman Colin Rea again, throwing him somewhat extra cash to get a membership possibility for 2027.

After an unproductive and injury-marred second half, the Cubs appeared to have little curiosity in signing Kyle Tucker, whether or not to the $400MM+ deal he seemingly hoped for, or the record-setting AAV short-term opt-out deal he finally signed with the Dodgers.  The Cubs most likely wouldn’t have signed Tucker even when his second half had been robust.  However they did make him a qualifying provide to lock within the #75 decide on this yr’s draft.

Figuring out they’d get that decide seemingly boosted the Cubs’ willingness to forfeit their second-rounder, had they signed one other group’s certified free agent.  That risk was on the desk all through the offseason, with the Cubs exhibiting some degree of reported curiosity in Dylan Stop, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, and Zac Gallen.

The Cubs made a reputable run at Stop, who they drafted out of highschool again in 2014.  Stop finally reached an settlement on a seven-year, $210MM take care of the Blue Jays on November twenty sixth.  As Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic put it on December third, the Cubs “bowed out because the bidding reached the $200 million mark.”

The factor is, the bidding form of didn’t attain the $200MM mark on Stop, who deferred $64MM and signed with a internet current worth of roughly $189.2MM.  Both the Cubs really drew their line beneath that vary, or Hoyer had not but satisfied the Ricketts household to bend on their current opposition to deferred cash.

With Stop off the board, the Cubs reportedly a minimum of entertained a variety of prime free brokers all through December past the starters talked about, together with Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Tatsuya Imai, and Eugenio Suarez.

Concurrently, the Cubs set about rebuilding their bullpen by way of free company.  They snagged Phil Maton, a soft-tossing righty with an enormous strikeout charge final yr, in November.  Maton’s two-year, $14.5MM deal marked the primary multiyear free agent reduction signing of Hoyer’s five-year tenure atop the Cubs’ entrance workplace, and the membership’s first since their disastrous Craig Kimbrel signing in June 2019.  Hoyer noticed one other goal, Ryan Helsley, land with Baltimore, however got here away with Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb earlier than the top of the yr.

Save for just a few minor league offers for depth, Hoyer’s bullpen work was carried out.  Maybe emboldened by his success in buying Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and Kittredge final yr, Hoyer introduced in 4 new bullpen choices whereas retaining Thielbar.

Within the 2024-25 offseason, 5 relievers signed for $20MM or extra: Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Blake Treinen, A.J. Minter, and Carlos Estevez.  The primary three posted ERAs of 4.37 and up final yr, and Minter pitched solely 11 innings.  Estevez had success for the Royals, however is exhibiting crimson flags this spring with a drastic velocity drop.  On condition that bust charge – the Cubs had been really the excessive bidder on Scott – it’s exhausting to fault Hoyer for letting Keller go to the Phillies for $22MM.  Nonetheless, the Cubs’ bullpen, led by holdover and Group Venezuela stopper Daniel Palencia, comes with tons of variance for 2026.

The Cubs went off the crushed path to snag Tyler Austin on an inexpensive cut up contract.  The 34-year-old first baseman had a contact of success within the Majors with the 2018 Yankees and Twins, however finally decamped to Japan for a six-year run with the Yokohama BayStars (the place he was teammates with Imanaga).  It appeared that maybe Austin would take over Justin Turner’s position as Michael Busch‘s caddy in opposition to robust lefties.  However after a superb 2025 season, the Cubs are saying Busch has earned a shot in opposition to southpaws.  A part of that could be owed to the patellar tendon debridement process Austin underwent in February, anticipated to maintain him out months.  However the dedication to Austin was minimal, he might finally complement Moises Ballesteros at DH, and the Cubs nonetheless have right-handed choices on the lively roster in Miguel Amaya and Matt Shaw.

The Cubs’ curiosity in Stop steered a need so as to add a pitcher to the entrance of their rotation.  In response to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “the Cubs appear to have been probably the most aggressive suitor” of Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai, however they as an alternative allowed the 27-year-old to signal an opt-out-laden three-year, $54MM take care of the Astros.

Maybe the Cubs weren’t followers of the opt-out construction of Imai’s contract, after an analogous one with Cody Bellinger turned a headache.  They as an alternative pivoted to a longtime goal, Marlins righty Edward Cabrera.  The Cubs landed Cabrera in a January seventh commerce with Miami, surrendering Baseball America’s #43 prospect in Owen Caissie (plus two others) to get him.  The Cubs management the hard-throwing Cabrera for 3 years, and he comes low-cost in 2026 at simply $4.45MM.

Cabrera, 28 in April, set a career-high with final yr’s 144 2/3 innings (which features a couple minor league rehab begins).  Courting again even earlier than his 2021 debut, accidents have been a constant theme in Cabrera’s profession.  He handled biceps irritation in ’21, however nonetheless reached the Majors in August of that yr.  The biceps slowed him once more the next yr, which additionally included elbow tendinitis.  A shoulder impingement value him a month in ’23, which recurred the next spring and once more in Could of ’24.  That one knocked him out for 2 months.

Cabrera started 2025 with an IL stint for a blister, one other frequent harm for him.  An elbow harm cropped up in July, however didn’t necessitate a visit to the IL.  An elbow sprain did put Cabrera on the IL in September, although he returned in lower than a month to make two remaining begins. His velocity was again at full energy in these appearances.

Of all of the beginning pitching choices the Cubs entertained final winter, Cabrera was a high-risk, high-reward selection.  However, notably after Imanaga accepted the QO, they wanted entrance of the rotation upside greater than depth.  The worth on Cabrera was excessive; Caissie may need wound up because the Cubs’ beginning proper fielder for years in any other case.  Although he throws exhausting, Cabrera’s fastball is definitely ineffective, as Sharma defined.  However he brings a superb curveball and distinctive changeup, and he lower his stroll charge final yr.  Cabrera is the kind of starter the Cubs had been lacking in final yr’s playoffs, although whether or not he’ll be wholesome in October is anybody’s guess.

Although there was a little bit of stray Zac Gallen speak, the Cabrera acquisition accomplished the Cubs’ rotation.  They’ll trot out Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Imanaga, Cabrera, and Jameson Taillon to begin the season, with Justin Steele hoping to return from surgical procedure round June.  Javier Assad will begin the season in Triple-A, with Ben Brown working multi-inning stints out of the MLB bullpen and Rea all the time able to take begins as wanted.  Jaxon Wiggins, the sport’s 78th finest prospect in response to BA, might be at Triple-A Iowa as properly.  Even with Taillon’s shaky spring, the Cubs’ rotation depth seems to be robust for now.  160+ innings from Horton would nonetheless go a great distance, after final yr’s second-place Rookie of the 12 months end.

After final spring’s four-year, $115MM provide to Alex Bregman fell properly quick, I didn’t count on the Cubs to make an even bigger push a yr later.  I used to be mistaken.  It turned out the Cubs’ earlier failure to push additional was extra on possession than Hoyer.  In response to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins used the intervening interval to fulfill with higher-ups to “replace the membership’s philosophy on utilizing deferred cash to assist finance offers free of charge brokers.”  The truth that the Cubs’ large beginning pitching acquisition, Cabrera, added lower than $5MM to the payroll seemingly emboldened Hoyer on Bregman.

Because the Chicago Bears had been mounting a wild comeback to beat the Packers at Soldier Subject to win the NFC Wild Card sport – with Cubs heart fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong in attendance – Hoyer was wrapping up a shocking take care of Bregman.  Whereas their 2025 four-year provide lined his age 31-34 seasons, this yr’s five-year deal covers age 32-36.  That’s the primary time the Cubs have signed a free agent by way of age 36 since Yu Darvish almost eight years prior — a contract Hoyer dumped midway by way of to get Caissie.

The Bregman deal included $70MM in deferred cash, leading to a internet current worth a bit shy of $155MM.  Bregman did a bit higher than anticipated, as MLBTR had referred to as for $160MM over six years.  Actually Bregman brings a clubhouse impact that Kyle Tucker doesn’t.  However although the Cubs didn’t have to incorporate a sixth yr (age 37 for Bregman), I used to be nonetheless stunned to see them signal a participant for large cash that deep into his profession.  As Davy Andrews of FanGraphs put it, “He’s not beginning out with a lot margin for error, so issues might get ugly when his bat pace or his contact abilities begin to go. And Bregman is already sluggish and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the protection might crater fairly shortly too.”  Lengthy-term pessimism apart, Bregman nonetheless tasks for 3+ WAR this yr.

Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, quietly price 17.5 WAR during the last 4 years, had been in commerce rumors all through the winter.  Hoerner’s contract is up after 2026, however the Cubs didn’t see match to maneuver him this winter to clear a spot for Matt Shaw.  Shaw, 24, was displaced from his beginning third base job by the Bregman signing.  Shaw popped up in rumors as properly, however as an alternative the Cubs plan to make use of him in a super-utility position this yr.  For instance, he’ll see time in proper discipline early within the season as Seiya Suzuki recovers from a PCL pressure suffered within the World Baseball Basic.

The Cubs’ Opening Day proper discipline begin in opposition to Nationals righty Cade Cavalli might go to Michael Conforto, because the veteran will make the group folllowing Suzuki’s harm.  Minor league signee Dylan Carlson additionally claimed a bench spot. On the time of this writing, Scott Kingery and Chas McCormick are vying for the final place participant job, with Kingery’s infield versatility most likely giving him the leg up.

Late Tuesday, the Cubs put a cherry on prime of an thrilling offseason by locking up heart fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to a long-term extension working by way of 2032.  PCA, simply 24 on Wednesday, cemented himself as a fan favourite with a primary half final yr that put him within the MVP dialog.  Crow-Armstrong’s second-half flop didn’t deter the Cubs from extending him, although they already managed him by way of 2030.  As maybe the sport’s finest defensive heart fielder, PCA gives a excessive ground even when he can’t get his batting common up or be taught to hit left-handed pitching.

Crow-Armstrong’s six-year extension begins in 2027, so it covers his 4 arbitration years plus his first two free agent seasons.  If we assume round $40MM in potential arbitration earnings, every free agent yr will get valued at round $37-38MM.  That’s a hefty worth, however as my colleague Steve Adams put it, the Cubs have a knack for getting gamers to surrender an atypical variety of free agent years (as within the instances of Hoerner and Ian Happ).

The PCA deal doesn’t actually have a transparent comp.  Think about:

Crow Armstrong: signed at age 24 with 1.170 Main League service, buys out 4 arbitration years and two free agent years masking age 25-30 for $115MM
Jackson Merrill: signed at age 22 with 1.006 service, buys out one pre-arb yr, three arb years, and as many as six free agent years masking age 23-32 for $156MM (if 2035 membership possibility is exercised)
Roman Anthony: signed at age 21.25 with 0.058 service, buys out three pre-arb years, three arb years, and as many as three free agent years masking age 22-30 for $160MM (if 2034 membership possibility is exercised)
Corbin Carroll: signed at age 22.57 with 0.038 service, buys out three pre-arb years, three arb years, and as many as three free agent years masking age 22-30 for $134MM (if 2031 membership possibility is exercised)
Tyler Soderstrom: signed at age 24.1 with 2.053 service, buys out one pre-arb yr, three arb years, and as many as 4 free agent years masking age 24-31 for $111MM (if 2033 membership possibility is exercised)

As you’ll be able to see, none of those actually match up with Crow-Armstrong, who signed a bit later in his profession than most, gave up the fewest free agent years, gave up no membership choices, and like Anthony and Carroll preserved a shot at free company heading into his age-31 season.

PCA was already a part of the Cubs’ long-term outlook, however right here’s how that appears at current (relievers excluded):

Free brokers after 2026: Hoerner, Suzuki, Happ, Imanaga, Taillon, Boyd, Carson Kelly
Below management by way of 2027: Steele
Below management by way of 2028: Cabrera
Below management by way of 2029: Dansby Swanson, Busch, Miguel Amaya
Below management by way of 2030: Bregman, Horton
Below management by way of 2031: Moises Ballesteros, Shaw
Below management by way of 2032: Crow-Armstrong

Barring additional extensions, the Cubs may see one thing on the order of 17 WAR stroll out the door after the 2026 season, plus 4 relievers.  Throw a lockout into the combination, and the 2027 Cubs might look fairly completely different when the mud finally settles.  They’ve actually acquired the payroll flexibility to signal Hoerner and/or Suzuki.  Nevertheless, Hoerner might be considerably troublesome to worth, and I’m unsure the Cubs will need to go additional with a 32-year-old Suzuki.  The Cubs could also be left searching for a pair of nook outfielders, a number of beginning pitchers, and a number of other relievers subsequent offseason.

These are issues for one more day.  Although the PCA signing kicks in subsequent yr, the Cubs have pushed their 2026 payroll to new heights, passing the $244MM aggressive steadiness tax threshold.  They’ve constructed a robust group regardless of shedding Tucker, although they most likely face harder competitors from the remainder of the NL Central than many notice. That features needing to discover a technique to bounce the Brewers, who’ve saved them second within the division for 3 straight seasons.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason?

Complete votes: 560

Thanks for voting!



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