5 Massive Questions In regards to the 2026 Season

Right here at FanGraphs, we make plenty of daring predictions. All the employees makes them in a site-wide train that may come out tomorrow. I made 10 extra of my very own on Successfully Wild. Traditionally, I made 5 daring predictions in regards to the season on this house as properly. However I’ve been crowded out! Daring predictions are in every single place now. Meg and I got here up with a substitute final yr, and I loved it sufficient that I’m bringing it again once more: 5 large questions in regards to the season. These aren’t the one large questions I’ve. They aren’t essentially the largest questions in baseball. I don’t know the solutions to any of them. However all 5 of those are unresolved questions that may assist to form the 2026 season, and all 5 fascinate me.

1. Do the Brewers Nonetheless Know Greatest?The sorts of nerdy followers who learn (and write for) FanGraphs have all the time had a data-driven crew to root for. The Moneyball A’s predate this web site. The Rays took that blueprint and ran with it. Earlier than the Astros went full banging scheme, they revolutionized participant growth. The Guardians develop pitchers higher than virtually everybody else. The Brewers are the newest mannequin; they do issues a bit bit in another way than the remainder of the league, in keeping with some inside blueprint, and their plan works. They’ve the third-most wins within the league during the last 5 years regardless of working one of many lowest payrolls. It seems like their run atop the NL Central would possibly proceed indefinitely.

In fact, it felt just like the earlier analytical darling groups would hold their runs going endlessly, too. The A’s fell off arduous after their peak. The Rays look so much much less magical at the moment than they did 4 years in the past. No benefit lasts endlessly; if in case you have some form of secret sauce that actually does work, each different crew in baseball shall be attempting to determine the recipe.

From the surface, it’s clear that the Brewers do no less than three issues very properly: They develop good pitchers, discover quick and athletic place gamers who ship loads of WAR with out gaudy batting statistics, and proactively commerce established gamers for prospects who match their most popular pitching and hitting archetypes.

This yr, the Brewers are attempting to do all three of these issues without delay. They traded two beginning place gamers and their high beginning pitcher. They’re filling in these slots with a mix of their very own prospects and the fellows they acquired in these offers. Final yr, the Brewers beat their projections largely due to shock seasons from guys they’d lately acquired. This yr, they’re going to attempt to do it once more, with a special group of fellows they’ve lately acquired. That’s arduous!

The market isn’t environment friendly. The Brewers actually have confirmed their capability to search out edges that different groups don’t see or can’t put into follow. However these benefits aren’t everlasting, and it’s tough to know prematurely when their effectiveness will degrade. Brandon Sproat, Kyle Harrison, and Luis Rengifo weren’t Brewers final yr, and so they didn’t assist their respective groups out all that a lot. This yr, they’re all projected starters for Milwaukee. If the Brewers nonetheless have the magic contact, it’ll all work out. In the event that they don’t, it’ll be straightforward to query them looking back. However you by no means know when your One Silly Trick will cease working, no less than till that really occurs.

2. Can the Padres Hold Youngsters off Their Garden?The Padres have been some of the thrilling groups of the 2020s. They promote their very own prospects aggressively, make splashy trades, spend in free company, and total act like they’re really in a must-win state of affairs always. I consider them as younger upstarts within the established order of issues, with their brilliant uniforms and pleasant younger stars high of thoughts after I think about what’s occurring in San Diego.

The uniform a part of that’s nonetheless true. The age half isn’t, although. Padres hitters are the third-oldest group in baseball, based mostly on our combination enjoying time projections. Positive, Tatis is nicknamed “El Niño,” however he’s 27. All these years of buying and selling minor leaguers for veteran performers have left Jackson Merrill as the one hitter on the 26-man roster youthful than Tatis. The truth is, these two and Gavin Sheets are the one three beginning place gamers who shall be of their 20s on Opening Day, and Sheets turns 30 subsequent month.

I can perceive how A.J. Preller ended up on this state of affairs. He’s confirmed adept at discovering worth from reclamation-project veterans lately. The maths retains lining up – get a star for some good-but-not-great minor leaguers, then substitute these minor leaguers in your depth chart with the likes of Miguel Andujar or Nick Castellanos. However this crew has gotten very previous, as a result of its finest gamers are ageing at a fee of 1 yr per yr (yep, math checks out), whereas the rotating supporting forged isn’t getting get any youthful, because of the fixed churn of exchanging prospects for veterans.

The rotation is extra of the identical. It’s not the oldest in baseball, however San Diego is certainly one of six groups whose common starter age exceeds 31. For the document, the others are the Cubs, Blue Jays, Tigers, Rangers, and Rockies (?!). The place many groups would fill behind their rotation with prospects, the Padres are going with vets trying to rebound: Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler are each beginning the yr within the rotation. Ignoring relievers, the Padres are the oldest crew in baseball. Including relievers, they’re a part of a five-way tie for the oldest; the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Padres all venture for a mean age between 30.27 and 30.35.

This trajectory can’t proceed endlessly. The Padres have gotten by as a result of their stars are nice and since Preller is maxing out the veteran retread pipeline (and the NPB/KBO pipeline, too, it must be famous). However the stars received’t keep this nice endlessly, the veterans he brings in received’t all the time pan out, and a protracted farm system deficit is making it ever tougher for the Padres to retool through the season once they want depth. I don’t know if that is the final yr the present Padres core will compete for a title, however absolutely that point is coming quickly.

3. How Lengthy Till the Problem System Feels Regular?Challenges are so scorching proper now. I can’t go a day with out seeing a brand new leaderboard on Baseball Savant, or studying an article about how a crew plans to deploy its challenges this yr. Questions on them pepper my inbox. Will they assist hitters? Pitchers? Will they modify the character of catching? Will sure pitches turn out to be overpowered resulting from bizarre interactions between the brand new rulebook zone and the acute break that some slower deliveries can produce?

This isn’t a daring prediction article, so I’ll make a milquetoast projection as an alternative: In a couple of years, we’ll all really feel completely regular about this method. The query, in my thoughts, is how lengthy it is going to take earlier than challenges really feel not like an space for groups to derive a bonus however merely a standard a part of the sport.

My level of comparability for that is tennis, which instituted a problem system for in/out line calls in 2006. It used the identical Hawk-Eye know-how that powers Statcast at the moment. It was a curiosity when it got here out – after which fairly shortly, it was simply a part of the sport. Tennis announcers and followers went from marveling on the cameras and discussing problem technique to simply ignoring it. Extra calls have been made accurately. (By definition: a problem system is the previous system plus some probability of correcting an incorrect name.) The calls that modified made the sport higher by correcting an oversight. Everybody prospered. I feel baseball will observe the identical path.

The optimum problem technique most likely isn’t attention-grabbing. It entails difficult not often or in no way in early innings, significantly in conditions the place the decision doesn’t result in a strikeout or stroll. In later innings, you’ll be able to widen your threshold for difficult, each as a result of some conditions may have extraordinarily excessive leverage and since you don’t get to take the challenges dwelling with you for those who fail to make use of them. Each known as strike three within the ninth inning – and each pitch that would have been known as strike three however was as an alternative known as a ball – is truthful sport for a problem as a result of the rewards are simply that prime.

You may all the time problem for those who’re very certain the decision is flawed, too, however in follow, nobody has been all that correct at difficult thus far. That was true in tennis, too, and the uncertainty is amplified in baseball. It’s simply how the human mind works; the ball is shifting too quick in your eyes to truly see it regularly, so your mind makes some assumptions about the place it goes within the interim. There isn’t even a bodily strike zone; you must guess the place that’s, too.

In 10 years, the zone will most likely be known as fully by computer systems. However lengthy earlier than we get there, I feel the problem system will turn out to be a totally accepted a part of the sport, a small instrument that primarily helps right two issues: clearly flawed calls, and flawed calls in vital conditions. It’s only a matter of how lengthy it takes to get there, and the way hyperbolic all of us get in regards to the significance of challenges within the meantime.

4. Who’s the Greatest Hitter within the AL West?For fairly awhile now, the three finest hitters in baseball have been Aaron Decide, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto in some order. You’ll be able to throw Ronald Acuña Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. into the combo to make a high 5 for those who’d like. Perhaps you can add Bryce Harper for those who worth status over latest outcomes, or Bobby Witt Jr. if we’re speaking about total offensive worth as an alternative of merely batting. I feel that one AL West hitter will crack this listing this yr. I’m simply not fully certain who that shall be.

May it’s Cal Raleigh? Actually. He simply hit 60 homers and completed second within the AL MVP voting. He posted a 161 wRC+ with strong peripherals, and he’s within the prime of his profession. The Mariners DH him a lot to maintain his legs recent although he’s an important defensive catcher, as a result of they know his bat is simply that worthwhile. He walks a ton, strikes out a suitable quantity, and does it from each side of the plate. However he’s really the least seemingly reply to this query out of the three names I’m contemplating right here.

May it’s Yordan Alvarez? Little doubt. Yeah, Raleigh had a profession yr, however Alvarez’s profession wRC+ is definitely higher than Raleigh’s single-season 2025 mark. Accidents held Alvarez again final yr, however even then, he walked virtually as a lot as he struck out and smashed the ball to all fields with authority. He not often chases, makes a surprising quantity of contact for a person with 97th-percentile bat velocity, and places the ball within the air with out popping it up.

Don’t overlook about Nick Kurtz, both. The Athletics phenom exploded into prominence final yr, posting the very best batting line for a rookie since… properly, since Alvarez debuted in 2019. Kurtz has a Yordanian sport, too. He’s a mountain of a person, and he takes large hacks aimed toward getting the ball within the air to all fields. He struck out 31% of the time in his debut, which is a minor fear, however I’m keen to grant him the good thing about the doubt. Kurtz received drafted in 2024 and barely performed within the minors; adjusting to large league pitching whereas posting a 170 wRC+ is simply additional proof of his precocious expertise and skill to enhance quickly.

The perfect hitter of this trio isn’t assured to make the playoffs, simply so we’re clear. Baseball not often works that cleanly. However all three of those guys have big error bars on their projections in 2026. Raleigh simply put up the very best season of his life and has to repeat it. Alvarez has to indicate that he’s wholesome once more. Kurtz has to show that he’s not only a flash within the pan. We’ll know much more about the way forward for the division at yr’s finish, as a result of I feel we’ll have a significantly better concept of how good these superstars are. I’m undecided who will come out on high – or whether or not Julio Rodríguez, Brent Rooker, or Corey Seager will crash the get together – however all three have the expertise and monitor document to complete the yr within the pantheon of baseball’s highest.

5. Will Anybody Throw 200 Innings?In 2021, main league pitchers have been nonetheless reeling from the shortened pandemic season. With little workload to construct off of from the earlier yr, innings totals and readiness fell precipitously. Solely 4 pitchers crested the 200-inning mark, the bottom full-season mark in baseball historical past. It was a surprising downturn; 15 pitchers hit the mark in 2019, and a full 28 had achieved in order lately as 2015.

In 2022, pitchers rebounded considerably; eight starters threw 200 or extra innings. However there was extra contributing to the broader development than simply the pandemic. In 2023, solely 5 pitchers did it. Solely 4 did in 2024. And in 2025, solely three pitchers – Logan Webb, Garrett Crochet, and Cristopher Sánchez – tallied 200. That’s the brand new all-time low, but when the tendencies maintain, it received’t keep that approach for lengthy. We’re ultimately going to have a yr with no 200-inning pitchers. The query is when.

Webb is the very best guess to do it. He’s topped 200 innings for 3 straight seasons. But it surely’s been a close to factor; he had 204 2/3 in 2024 and 207 in a league-leading 34 begins in ‘25. One brief begin or one skipped flip may go away him brief. Crochet and Sánchez are first-time 200 Membership members, and every has an attention-grabbing outlook in ‘26; Crochet definitely seems the a part of an old-school innings eater, however he missed a lot time resulting from harm early in his profession that he’s new to hefty workloads. Sánchez seems like a pure Webb successor – identical sinker-based sport, identical good command – but it surely’s needed to venture one other 200-inning season from him when he’s solely reached that mark as soon as in his profession.

Whereas I’m fascinated by every of these pitchers, the macro view is much more attention-grabbing. Check out how groups have behaved in latest winters. Bulk starter innings are extraordinarily worthwhile on the free agent market. Everybody’s searching for seven starters, not 5. There are such a lot of innings to fill that groups are aggressively pursuing all types of options. Older starters from overseas leagues? Reliever conversions? Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer? Every part’s on the desk.

However regardless of that starvation for innings, concentrated quantity retains declining. Pitching is efficacious partly as a result of it’s so fragile, and groups have gotten caught between preserving the long-term availability of their finest guys and managing the short-term requirements of fielding a full roster. Positive, you’d love 230 innings out of your ace. However for those who understand the harm threat of these 230 innings to be excessive, perhaps you’d settle for 180 out of your ace and 50 from a random veteran. Come playoff time, this trade-off goes away, however now that everybody makes the playoffs, the distinction between 50 common innings and 50 elite ones is more and more a worth groups are keen to pay for well being.

There’s no rule that claims it has to maintain going this fashion. My view is that processes like these usually self-perpetuate till they’ve gone too far, however then the snap-back can occur shortly. There’s no method to inform whether or not we’ve hit the underside but, although. The simultaneous seek for bulk innings and the restriction of top-end starter workloads has outlined main league roster building for fairly awhile now. I’m considering seeing whether or not it continues apace this yr, or whether or not we’ve reached some form of native minimal in workloads for the very best starters within the league.