Welcome to Texas, because the PGA heads to Memorial Park for the Texas Youngsters’s Houston Open. It is a grip-it-and-rip-it setup the place drivers get a inexperienced mild and fairways barely matter. You’ll be able to miss and nonetheless assault, which shifts all the focus of the match. Off the tee offers gamers the benefit however it does not win it for them.
The actual take a look at begins on the second shot; targets are small, greens are difficult and getting the ball shut is more durable than it appears. When you miss, it will get even worse. Chipping is demanding, scrambling is unreliable and it is easy to provide pictures again. Everybody could have probabilities however not everybody will convert.
That is the lens for this week within the PGA. I am prioritizing gamers who can bounce off with the driving force and may survive and capitalize when issues get uncomfortable across the greens. Distance will get you in place however precision and contact decides who soars to the highest.
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(with ties) and topic to alter.
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Min Woo Lee: High 20 (-120)
Lee is not priced as the favourite accidentally. His profile is precisely what this course rewards, and extra importantly, it is repeatable.
He is among the finest drivers within the area, second in strokes gained off the tee and second in from tee to inexperienced. Memorial Park permits gamers to swing aggressively with out a lot penalty. Lee cannot solely reap the benefits of that however create separation with it. His distance and managed velocity give him simpler appears into greens, which raises each his ceiling and his flooring.
The distinction with Lee in comparison with different high-upside gamers is that even when his irons aren’t sharp, he can recuperate. His T12 at Riviera, the place he misplaced six strokes on method, is a transparent instance of that security web. His around-the-green play and scoring potential maintain him afloat.
Laying -120 is a good value contemplating he has the talent set to win once more, together with the consistency to be on the primary web page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Brooks Koepka: High 20 (+120)
The outcomes are beginning to catch up as a result of the underlying sport has a robust basis. Koepka is the second finest iron participant getting into this week over the previous 20 rounds and third from tee to inexperienced, the idea for fulfillment for Memorial Park. Since this is not a course that requires precision off the tee, his lack of accuracy is basically irrelevant. What issues is that he is lengthy sufficient to take benefit and elite sufficient together with his irons to separate.
You’ll be able to’t pretend ballstriking, and Koepka’s present kind reveals that a part of his sport is clicking, which has helped push him to 3 straight top-20 finishes. He is additionally gaining across the inexperienced, which raises his flooring. There’s nonetheless volatility, however you are getting a participant with confirmed closing potential, elite tee-to-green metrics and a profile that matches the course.
Plus, Koepka has firsthand data of how Memorial Park is supposed to play as a result of he helped form its aggressive setup, giving him a clearer understanding of the place to assault and the place errors get punished. That familiarity can translate into higher decision-making beneath strain in comparison with the sphere.
Keith Mitchell: High 20 (+165)
Editor’s Picks
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That is the place value and profile really align. He is without doubt one of the finest drivers within the area, high 15 off the tee, with a mix of distance and management that matches this course properly. You get rewarded for aggressive driving. Mitchell begins with a bonus. His value stands out as a result of his tee-to-green sport is stronger than his outcomes present. He has proven stretches of optimistic method play, together with a T11 at Torrey Pines, which is without doubt one of the closest comp programs earlier than this match. When his irons cooperate, he appears like a top-tier participant.
The volatility comes from his quick sport, which may swing from week to week. That is the distinction between a top-10 end and a end outdoors the highest 30. However for a top-20 wager, Mitchell has sufficient stability to transform the alternatives his driver creates. A repeatable talent that the market is undervaluing.
Gamers to contemplate for Day by day Fantasy
Nicolai Højgaard $9,200: That is the place upside and value meet. He brings the identical aggressive, driver-heavy profile because the higher-priced names however with a barely extra secure to inexperienced baseline. His size offers him the prospect to reap the benefits of Memorial Park and if his irons are even common, he can provide him scoring probabilities to climb the leaderboard. He isn’t a protected play however he offers you a ceiling with out overpaying for it. Hojgaard has each win fairness and offers you lineup flexibility.
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Jake Knapp $9,500: That is priced about proper, which makes it arduous to like however he has the space and his T5 at Torrey Pines reveals he can deal with an extended, driver-heavy take a look at. The problem is that his sport nonetheless runs cold and hot. He depends on stretches the place all the things clicks somewhat than a gentle baseline you’ll be able to belief. He is a viable play if you happen to’re chasing upside, simply not a transparent edge.
DFS participant to fade
Chris Gotterup $9,800: Gotterup is priced like a secure top-tier choice however his profile does not totally assist that. His worth comes from off the tee dominance and occasional method spikes, that are truthful however he additionally lacks the consistency.
When these two do not align, his quick sport is not sturdy sufficient to save lots of rounds, which ends up in chaotic scoring. Gotterup both contends or falls off so at this value, you are paying for a ceiling with no dependable flooring. That is an issue in most lineup builds. There are cheaper gamers with related upside and extra balanced tee-to-green profiles, making Gotterup an inefficient use of wage.
