A Dodgers Favorite Returns After Manuel Margots to Minnesota

When the Dodgers traded for Tyler Glasnow this offseason, he wasn’t the one participant the Rays despatched west. Manuel Margot additionally joined Los Angeles, the place he would to fill Jonny DeLuca’s previous function as a righty-hitting outfielder able to taking part in any of the three spots. But, Margot wasn’t precisely a cosy match for the Dodgers; his inclusion within the commerce felt extra like a method for Tampa Bay to shed wage. It appeared possible that Los Angeles would flip him to a different crew earlier than the beginning of the season.

That’s precisely what occurred on Monday, when the Dodgers despatched Margot and minor league infielder Rayne Doncon to the Twins in change for minor league shortstop Noah Miller. Los Angeles additionally agreed to cowl $6 million of Margot’s $10 million wage for 2024, together with the $2 million he’d be owed if Minnesota doesn’t train its crew choice for 2025, as Aaron Gleeman reported. So, in buying and selling Margot, the Dodgers are saving $4 million; naturally, they promptly rotated and signed Enrique Hernández to a one-year, $4 million deal.

You may virtually analyze the Dodgers’ aspect of this commerce in a field, as a result of the issues being exchanged are so related. In actual fact, to make my evaluation make sense, it’s important to know the way shut the prospects are in worth, so let’s begin there. Doncon is a 20-year previous center infielder who spent 2023 at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga struggling towards older pitchers. Need a prospect novel? Eric Longenhagen has one for you:

Doncon was a 2021 and 2022 backfield prodigy who regarded like he might turn out to be a slugging center infielder. His bat pace, physique projection, in addition to his struggles on protection and with chase, prompted Alfonso Soriano pipe goals and extra level-headed Esteury Ruiz comparisons on the time. Doncon had a mediocre 2023 with the bat – .215/.283/.368, albeit with a career-high 14 homers – however regarded significantly better on protection. He at the moment has the actions and arm power for shortstop, however he’s nonetheless younger and has plenty of room on his body, which suggests he might but outgrow that place and transfer to both second or third. Doncon’s pitch recognition will not be nice, and he’s a bit extra chase and whiff inclined than is right, however he has good energy for a hitter his age and might be going to develop into extra. The longer he can keep at brief, the higher likelihood he offers himself at being a helpful large leaguer regardless of his flaws. The Twins have two seasons to develop Doncon earlier than they should determine whether or not to reveal him to the Rule 5 draft, and realistically, they’ve one other 12 months or two past that to let him barbecue on the 40-man in the event that they actually need to. He provides a component of upside to their system in addition to a component of threat. He isn’t prone to have a meteoric rise. As a substitute, he’s a slow-burning, high-variance prospect.

That’s fairly near the textbook definition of a dart throw. He would possibly pan out into one thing nice, however he in all probability gained’t. On the opposite aspect, Miller is a 12 months older and performed a stage increased in 2023, however he put up a equally lackluster batting line. Eric once more:

When Miller was the thirty sixth total choose in 2021, there was hope he’d develop sufficient power to be an on a regular basis shortstop. The protection and call parts had been already in place. That hasn’t occurred. The 21-year-old has been under common total on offense at each minor league stage as a result of he has roughly 30-grade energy. He’s nonetheless a terrific and precocious shortstop defender with unbelievable actions and arm accuracy. A switch-hitter with above-average plate abilities and bat-to-ball skill, there’s sufficient offense right here for Miller to be a lower-impact utilityman.

In different phrases, Miller is a unique form of minor leaguer regardless of taking part in the identical place. He’s extra prone to attain the majors however much less possible to take action as an affect bat. General, I feel their values are shut sufficient that they’re extra about shifting organizational priorities than anything. Perhaps Miller has extra energy in there someplace. Perhaps Doncon will take a giant leap in his first post-teenage 12 months. Most definitely, neither of them will have an effect on the arcs of their groups very a lot.

With that out of the way in which, our subsequent cease in understanding this commerce is Minnesota, as a result of its aspect of the deal is simple. Right here’s the Twins’ projected beginning outfield as of Monday, with my notes on them appended:

The Twins had a closely lefty outfield earlier than Monday’s commerce, and one with harm threat besides. Final 12 months, they introduced in Michael A. Taylor to spell Buxton in middle, just for Taylor to finish up as their on a regular basis middle fielder. They didn’t re-sign Taylor, they usually plan to have Buxton again in middle this season, however he’s actually no lock to remain wholesome. Margot can deal with that function; I’ve him down as a meaningfully worse defender than Taylor however a greater hitter, significantly towards lefties.

That second half is vital even when Buxton stays wholesome, as a result of Wallner actually shouldn’t bat towards lefties. Earlier than including Margot, the plan was to make use of Willi Castro as Wallner’s platoon accomplice, however Margot is an improve and frees up Castro for a roving utility function. There’s additionally some prudent harm hedging in-built; if Buxton misses time, Margot can transfer to an on a regular basis beginning function and Castro can deal with short-side platoon responsibility.

This can be a straight improve throughout the board, in different phrases. I don’t suppose the Twins might have gotten a participant with Margot’s actual mixture of expertise and match for one 12 months and $4 million in free company. They wanted a righty who might deal with middle; possibly that’s Adam Duvall, or possibly it’s simply nobody. I feel the prospect swap was principally a wash, however even when the Twins gave up slightly bit in it, this deal matches them like a glove. The Dodgers had no use for Margot and had been keen to make his contract engaging to maneuver him, however that doesn’t imply he’s not a great participant. He simply wasn’t a roster match, and squeezing worth out of different groups’ roster complications is sweet enterprise.

Talking of that Los Angeles roster headache, it’s pretty straightforward to know. The Dodgers ended up with too many outfielders. They moved Mookie Betts from proper area to second base to assist ease the jam, however the issue was nonetheless there. Teoscar Hernández, James Outman, and Jason Heyward are the crew’s regular beginning configuration towards righties. Ideally, the crew would spell each Outman (generally) and Heyward (virtually all the time) towards lefties, which suggests two extra righty-hitting outfielders on the roster. However that might be a *lot* of gamers dedicated to the outfield, and would depart the infield depth too skinny.

Some groups might make use of a DH who can assist cowl the sphere every now and then, however the Dodgers have the final word luxurious downside there: They’ve the sport’s greatest DH, and the place within the area that he’ll assist cowl (beginning in 2025) is pitcher. Sure, it sounds absurd that I’m saying Shohei Ohtani is an issue, and naturally he’s not. However he does restrict the crew’s roster flexibility.

It will get even a bit extra awkward than that. I feel the crew would ideally wish to carve out some taking part in time for Miguel Vargas and restrict Miguel Rojas’s at-bats; his 69 wRC+ during the last two years is grim. However Vargas can’t play brief – actually, he can’t even play second that effectively, which is why the Dodgers are giving him reps within the outfield this spring. There simply aren’t sufficient infield backups to go round.

Chris Taylor remains to be there, however he can solely cowl a lot. He’s 33, hasn’t hit 500 plate appearances in a season since 2021, and regarded significantly hindered by harm final 12 months. He’ll additionally spend his fair proportion of time taking part in third base towards lefties when Max Muncy sits – until he’s taking part in the outfield to spell Heyward. It’s only a robust puzzle to crack throughout.

Right here’s an excellent concept, although: What if Margot might play shortstop? He can’t – however in Enrique Hernández, the Dodgers constructed an affordable approximation of that hypothetical. Calling his 2023 season disastrous can be an understatement. After a ghastly 2022 that left him proper on the roster borderline in Boston, he got here out and hit .222/.279/.320, good for a 59 wRC+, and ended up getting reduce. He redeemed himself barely in Los Angeles, posting a 96 wRC+ to shut out the season, however there nonetheless wasn’t a lot marketplace for him in free company. That’s hardly unreasonable for a mid-30s utility participant coming off two straight down years.

In a vacuum, I’d choose Margot to Hernández, the truth is. However the Dodgers are decidedly not a vacuum. The flexibility to spell second, brief, and middle area with one participant is precisely what they had been available in the market for. Getting a man they already know and are snug with due to his earlier years on the crew is simply gravy.

Let’s ignore this commerce and signing and simply ask one query: Would the Dodgers choose Margot or Hernández for 2024, all else being equal. For me, the reply is fairly clearly Hernández. The Dodgers have been constructed round positional flexibility and roster versatility for years. Taylor and Hernández have keyed that, generally as starters and generally as supersubs.

With Ohtani within the fold, and with the crew fairly moderately desirous to lighten the load on Betts by having him largely play one place, it was extra essential than ever for the Dodgers to make the remainder of their roster extra versatile. And that’s precisely what they did right here. In impact, they transmuted Margot into Hernández for free of charge. In the meantime, the Twins are in a unique place; greater than positional versatility, they wanted a righty bat who might credibly play middle area. If I had been solely confronted with that puzzle, I’d choose Margot over Hernández, too. Everybody bought what they wished ultimately – even Hernández, who bought to interrupt the information of his personal signing himself. Who doesn’t love a Hollywood ending?