After dispatching the Montreal Canadiens in 5 video games within the first spherical of the NHL Playoffs, the Capitals will square-up towards divisional rival Carolina Hurricanes within the second spherical of the playoffs. On this submit, we’re going to evaluation the efficiency of every workforce by means of the common season, in face to face match-ups through the common season, and their performances in these playoffs to date.
The statistics used on this submit are courtesy of Pure Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, Evolving Hockey, and HockeyViz. If you happen to’d wish to study extra concerning the phrases used on this submit, please take a look at our NHL Analytics Glossary.
2024-25 Season General Efficiency
First up, let’s check out every squads’ efficiency within the common season. This can assist us use the most important pattern measurement of information over the course of the 82-game season, and see how these two groups match up. We’ll begin right here with the season efficiency, then transfer into playoff efficiency to date this yr, after which face to face metrics.
Shot Technology
Right here’s how every squad fared in shot era metrics over the course of the common season:
Within the analytical preview of the Capitals’ first spherical collection towards the Montreal Canadiens, we surmised that the Caps usually managed the tempo of play by trying nearly all of Corsi (CF%) and Fenwick (FF%) shot makes an attempt, which usually means the next price of puck possession. When evaluating that to the Hurricanes, although, Carolina was dominant by way of puck possession metrics.
The metrics that actually catch my eye right here, although, are the Objectives For share (GF%) and Anticipated Objectives For Proportion (xGF%) for every workforce. The Hurricanes carry out very strongly by way of xGF%, however we are able to see that their precise GF% tendencies over 4.5% decrease than their xGF%. This usually signifies {that a} workforce both has struggles ending their possibilities (one thing Capitals followers have been no strangers to over the previous few seasons earlier than the 2024-25 marketing campaign), or goaltending struggles. We’ll get extra into that right here quickly.
For Carolina, it’s far more of the previous than the latter. They battle to transform on their possibilities, however they’re much extra of a quantity-over-quality workforce. If you happen to permit extra possibilities to be generated towards you, you’re more likely to lose.
Just like the Canadiens, the Hurricanes aren’t powered by true celebrity skills. Not like the Canadiens, although, the Hurricanes are a lot deeper all through their lineup and any line or pairing can generate harmful possibilities. Curiously sufficient, for the Hurricanes, Sebastian Aho (74 factors) and Seth Jarvis (67 factors) led the best way in factors for them this season, however in third? Former Hurricane Martin Necas with 55 factors.
The Hurricanes purpose scoring is unfold all through the lineup with one 30 purpose scorer (Jarvis) three 20 purpose scorers (Aho, Jack Roslovic, Andrei Svechnikov), and 5 present double digit scorers (Jackson Blake, Jordan Martinook, Eric Robinson, Jordan Staal, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi).
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
Now that we’ve seen five-on-five efficiency from the 2 squads, let’s check out every workforce’s holistic efficiency throughout all main conditions this season utilizing Evolving Hockey’s workforce Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) charts:
We coated this in our first spherical analytical preview, so right here’s what we stated there:
For the Caps, we see a workforce that was rightfully in the direction of the highest finish of the NHL standings within the common season. There have been no actual apparent flaws on this workforce by way of metrics outdoors of a few unfavourable metrics in anticipated objectives towards per 60 (xGA/60) throughout even power and Corsi shot makes an attempt towards per 60 (CA/60) through the penalty kill. Larger CA/60 on the penalty kill is just not inherently unhealthy until we see causation: weaker efficiency in xGA/60 in that sport scenario. We don’t see that causation right here, particularly because the Caps’ penalty kill was tied for fourth finest within the league at 82%.
Few issues right here — the Hurricanes (as beforehand talked about) are elite at producing puck possession occasions in CF/60 charges for even power offense. However — we see once more that though they generate excessive charges of xGF, they don’t have the ending capabilities. The Caps however, have their GF outpace their xGF, indicating excessive ranges of ending.
Defensively, the Canes are additionally efficient in limiting Corsi shot makes an attempt towards, which means they’re strong defensively and aren’t permitting loads of shot makes an attempt when the offensive and defensive squads are structurally set when of their defensive zone.
The Canes’ energy play was ranked twenty fifth within the NHL through the common season, and it’s not exhausting to see why. They don’t generate a ton of xGF and end even decrease than that. However — the Canes are presently working at 31.6% on the PP within the playoffs. Shorthanded, they’re elite, ending with the highest PK unit within the league through the common season. Moreover, they’re additionally batting 100% on the PK through the playoffs to date.
Playoff Efficiency (So Far)
Right here’s how every workforce has carried out in the important thing metrics to date this playoff:
Curiously sufficient, we see the same development for these two groups within the playoffs: the Capitals’ GF outpaces xGF, and the other for the Canes.
The Capitals undoubtedly struggled within the possession metrics division towards the Habs, and the Canes moderately simply dispatched the banged up New Jersey Devils.
This was the distinction for the Capitals within the first spherical towards the Habs: producing nearly all of scoring possibilities and excessive hazard possibilities, after which changing these possibilities at a a lot increased price than their opponents.
The Hurricanes (as they may) managed the SCF% and HDCF% era, however sorely struggled in truly changing these possibilities. That is the realm I anticipate the Capitals can exploit the Hurricanes.
Head-to-Head Efficiency
Let’s check out the metrics in face to face match-ups between the Canes and the Caps. Spoiler: it’s going to be ugly as a result of some lopsided performances, significantly in the direction of the top of the common season when the Caps successfully had a scheduled loss on the tail finish of a back-to-back with the Hurricanes when the Caps had nothing left to play for.
As anticipated, and as we noticed from common season and playoff efficiency to date, the Canes managed the overwhelming majority of shot makes an attempt and precise photographs throughout five-on-five play.
Attention-grabbing tidbit right here: the Canes generated the next share of typical scoring possibilities towards the Capitals, however the Capitals outpaced them in excessive hazard probability era share.
With the next share of SCF, the Canes did have success with changing on SCGF, however the Capitals actually took it to the Canes in excessive hazard possibilities.
However, all that being stated, the Canes actually managed the overwhelming majority of the important thing metrics within the face to face match-ups, leading to the next share of objectives for throughout 5 on 5 play, in addition to outpacing their xGF with precise GF.
The Takeaway
The Hurricanes are a strong workforce from entrance to again. They’re effectively run, effectively coached, and function as a unit when deployed on the ice. The Capitals ought to anticipate the Hurricanes’ finest, and look to counter their “analytical darling” play fashion with counterattacks on the push.
The Hurricanes may have the puck for big parts of the sport. The Capitals might want to keep structured and survive the onslaught at occasions. In the end, the Caps have a bit extra scoring firepower up and down their lineup, so the possibilities will come. The primary differentiator will likely be changing on possibilities on the ability play and when the counterattack excessive hazard possibilities happen. I’m anticipating this collection to go the gap for seven video games.
By Justin Trudel
