As Earlier than, So Once more: Cody Bellinger Is a Yankee

Our lengthy nationwide nightmare is over. After weeks of backwards and forwards between Cody Bellinger and the New York Yankees, it’s official: He’s staying within the Bronx. The 2 sides have agreed to a five-year, $162.5 million take care of decide outs after the second and third seasons, a $20 million signing bonus, and a full no-trade clause, as first reported by Jeff Passan.

This match was so apparent that it virtually needed to occur. The Yankees want offense, and so they’d favor it to return within the type of a left-handed outfielder who can cowl heart area in a pinch. They’re already aware of Bellinger, who simply put up a 5-WAR season in pinstripes. No different groups wanted this actual kind of participant as a lot, at this present second, as they did. Likewise, Bellinger was most likely going to need to signal with the Yankees to get the deal he needed. Now that that foregone conclusion has been reached, let’s unpack how this all matches collectively.

This contract is the fruits of a protracted, adorned profession that was conspicuously missing in free company enchantment. Bellinger burst onto the scene in 2017 with 39 homers for the Dodgers, taking Rookie of the 12 months honors within the course of. He then went absolutely supersonic within the homer-happy 2019 season, with the rocket ball propelling him to 47 homers, a 161 wRC+, and NL MVP honors. Catastrophe struck within the 2020 World Sequence, nonetheless. Bellinger dislocated his shoulder celebrating a house run, and his efficiency fell off a cliff instantly after.

For the following two seasons, Bellinger managed solely 29 mixed homers and a 69 wRC+. Removed from his MVP heights, he was primarily substitute stage (0.4 WAR over 900 PA), main the Dodgers to non-tender him somewhat than pay him the roughly $20 million he was prone to earn in his closing season of arbitration. He signed a one-year take care of the Cubs, bounced again with a 135 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR in 130 video games, then hit free company searching for his style of the great life.

The market didn’t see it that manner, and ultimately, Bellinger snagged a pillow contract of kinds, a three-year take care of Chicago that had decide outs after every season. A middling 2024 led him to say no his first decide out, and the cost-conscious Cubs then despatched him to the Yankees for a pittance (swingman Cody Poteet). That brings us to Bellinger’s superlative 2025, and his long-awaited large free company payday.

I haven’t spent too lengthy describing the specifics of Bellinger’s sport since you most likely already realize it, what with him being one of many extra well-known gamers of the final decade and all, however a refresher remains to be so as. Defensively, he can deal with all three outfield positions, and he’s meaningfully above common in a nook. He’s additionally an unimaginable first baseman, although his defensive skills are wasted there and he solely performs there sporadically nowadays.

We don’t need to surprise what Bellinger will seem like in Yankee Stadium as a result of we already realize it’s a match made in heaven. His lift-and-pull strategy isn’t solely a product of the comfortable proper area dimensions, however the match of swing and park is about pretty much as good because it will get. Of Bellinger’s 29 homers in 2025, 27 have been pulled, and the opposite two have been hit to right-center. He hasn’t all the time been so geared to drag, however from the beginning of his profession, he’s regarded to raise and have a good time, and now he’s going to maintain doing so in the most effective locations for lefties with that profile.

Because of that profile, Bellinger’s sluggish swing pace is a characteristic and never a bug. He’s blessed with a superb batting eye and outrageous contact abilities. His 90.6% zone contact charge in 2025 was twenty sixth within the majors, the area of slap hitters and their ilk. However his contact is lifted – he had the Tenth-highest fly ball charge in baseball, with 1 / 4 of his batted balls pulled within the air. That’s not fairly Isaac Paredes territory, nevertheless it’s within the prime 15% of all main leaguers. By making a ton of contact and aiming that contact at harmful angles, Bellinger produces energy numbers out of whack with what you’d anticipate from a Twentieth-percentile bat pace man who strikes out at a minuscule 13.7% clip. He may not hit the ball all that arduous, however swinging much less viciously helps him make extra contact, and the pure uppercut form of his swing handles the remaining.

This strategy most likely precludes him from being a high-BABIP kind, however truthfully, who cares? Between strolling rather a lot, not often placing out, and clobbering 30 bombs a season, you possibly can produce quite a lot of offensive worth with out seeing-eye singles. The Bellinger strategy is a superb method to benefit from his post-injury ability set; his common exit velocities early in his profession have been constantly on the prime of the league, however he’s been squarely beneath common now for 3 straight years. By leaning into that, he’s discovered an exquisite second act.

Add all of it up, and also you get an exquisite operating mate for Aaron Decide. Bellinger was a stalwart on the prime of the Yankees lineup in 2025, and he’s going to play that position once more for no less than the following two years. He’s an amazing hedge in opposition to one of the crucial widespread methods for neutralizing Decide. The Yankees prefer to encompass Decide with a gob of lefties, placing opponents in a bind of giving Decide a superb platoon matchup or letting everybody round him eat. The straightforward answer to that is to usher in a lefty reliever after which deliberately stroll Decide, getting good matchups in opposition to everybody else. However Bellinger has near-neutral splits for his profession, and his power-and-walks sport performs extremely effectively with runners on base. It’s not the simple matchup pitchers would hope for after handing their opponent a free runner.

Defensively, Bellinger’s skill to play a number of spots is simply what the Yankees want. I had him second on my Fielding Bible poll in left area, the place the place he performed essentially the most innings. He was additionally nice in proper, because the Yankees gave Decide 56 video games of DHing, significantly when Giancarlo Stanton was on the IL. Lastly, he was impartial in heart backing up Trent Grisham (who may even return after accepting the staff’s qualifying supply). He performed 300 innings or extra at every place. That sort of versatility let the Yankees toggle between their finest offensive lineup and numerous different permutations with impunity, sliding Bellinger round to wherever there was a gap with out worrying about protection.

This contract is greater than I predicted for Bellinger coming into the winter, and that’s earlier than you add within the worth of the decide outs. I believe that agent Scott Boras performed this one extremely effectively. As I’ve talked about, the Yankees wanted a really explicit archetype of participant. There aren’t quite a lot of different guys like Bellinger on the market, definitely not ones accessible in free company. Kyle Tucker may match the invoice, nevertheless it didn’t really feel like Brian Cashman was fascinated with wading into that exact fray, and also you don’t really need Tucker to identify in heart anyhow. Defensive versatility together with offensive firepower is generally the area of younger, untouchable franchise cornerstones nowadays. Kudos to Boras for understanding that Bellinger’s worth exceeded a linear estimation of his contributions in consequence, and sticking to his convictions till the deal was achieved.

About these decide outs: I don’t suppose they’re that prone to be exercised. ZiPS has Bellinger down for a delicate decline over the 5 seasons he’s beneath contract:

Plugging these values right into a home made calculator to estimate the probability of an decide out, I get solely a 26% likelihood that both choice will probably be exercised. The reason being simple: The three years remaining on Bellinger’s deal after the primary decide out are his age-32, -33, and -34 seasons. Not many 32-year-olds signal three-year, $82.5 million offers within the first place. Getting greater than that’s solely seemingly if Bellinger is markedly higher than anticipated over the following two years. It’s not that it might’t occur, however this isn’t a pillow contract with some longevity inbuilt as a fallback; it’s a five-year take care of a tiny escape valve for Bellinger if he’s actually good.

I’d nonetheless be extremely happy with this deal if I have been Bellinger. Mix this and the 2 years of his final contract that he performed out earlier than returning to free company, and it’s like he signed a seven-year, $217 million deal, the sort of blockbuster contract that he was angling for all alongside. By betting on himself by way of the pillow contract with decide outs, he didn’t even sacrifice a lot in common annual worth to get right here, as a result of he acquired a pleasant $27.5 million AAV on that short-term contract, barely decrease than the common worth of this deal. Should you’re searching for an instance of what occurs when gamers take short-term offers after which do effectively, it is a excellent one.

Is it an “overpay”? Perhaps to a mannequin. ZiPS would supply Bellinger $139 million over 5 years with these projections, extremely near my $140 million estimate. However the Yankees aren’t a mannequin; they’re a significant league baseball staff that wanted a slugging lefty outfielder. Enjoying cute within the negotiations, attempting to save lots of a couple of bucks, carried significant draw back threat. Outfitting Decide with a less-than-spectacular supporting solid, whereas he stacks 10-WAR seasons like firewood, is entrance workplace malpractice. The Decide deal has been such an enormous win for the Yankees that they need to be tripping over themselves to make small overpays to get their most popular supporting solid, and it is a great instance of that.