By Richard Pagliaro | Wednesday, January 28, 2026Photo credit score: Australian Open Fb
It’s a flawless closing 4 in Melbourne Park.
That is the fifth time within the Open Period that each one 4 gamers have reached Slam semifinals with out dropping a set—after the 1970 Australian Open, 1976 US Open, 1980 US Open and 1995 Roland Garros.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is taking part in to reclaim the Australian Open championship she’s gained twice, WTA Finals champion Elena Rybakina is aiming to seize her second profession Grand Slam championship and 30-somethings Elina Svitolina and Jessica Pegula are each competing for a maiden main championship.
Right here’s our 2026 Australian Open semifinal preview and prediction.
(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (12) Elina Svitolina (UKR)
Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 5-1
Grand Slam head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 1-0
Australian Open Data: Sabalenka 33-6 (Greatest Consequence: Champion 2023 and 2024); Svitolina 34-12 (Greatest Consequence: 2026 Semifinals)
2026 Data: Sabalenka 10-0; Svitolina 10-0
Profession Grand Slam Data: Sabalenka 105-26; Svitolina 113-47
Profession Grand Slam Titles: Sabalenka 4, Svitolina: None
Age: Sabalenka 27; Svitolina 31
Peak: Sabalenka 5’11”; Svitolina 5’9”
Profession Prize Cash: Sabalenka $45,397,966; Svitolina $26,695,471
Aryna Sabalenka on Elina Svitolina:
“It’s going to be a battle, as a result of…it’s unimaginable participant. I feel my strategy going to be the identical. Doesn’t matter whom I’m going through. I’ll simply go, and I’ll be centered on myself and on my recreation, and I’ll be combating for each level. That’s my strategy.”
Elina Svitolina on Aryna Sabalenka:
“It’s no secret that she’s very highly effective participant. I watch a bit of little bit of her [quarterfinal] match. She was taking part in nice tennis, and I feel, you recognize, the facility on all features of her recreation is her strengths. Yeah, I feel she’s very constant for the previous years with every thing that she does on the court docket. Yeah, for me, I’ll must be prepared for that, attempt to discover the methods and the little holes, little alternatives in her recreation. After all, you recognize, whenever you play the highest gamers, you must discover, you recognize, these small alternatives after which be able to take them.”
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
The world No. 1 is the extra explosive participant on each single shot. Sabalenka has been dominant Down Beneath profitable 31 of her final 32 Melbourne matches. Working with former doubles world No. 1 Max Mirnyi as a co-coach, Sabalenka has added subtly and nuance to her power-based baseline recreation. She’s performed the often serve-and-volley, sharpened her slice backhand and deployed the drop shot on the proper occasions. Sabalenka is a bodily powerhouse, who’s driving a 12-match main profitable streak into this semifinal. When she’s on her recreation, Sabalenka can dictate on serve, dominant on return and overwhelm opponents from the baseline. Sabalenka is clearly the very best participant on this planet and can present it reaching her eighth main closing in her final 12 Grand Slams.
Why Elina Svitolina Will Win
Taking a four-month psychological well being break on the finish of 2025, Svitolina has returned recharged mentally, bodily and emotionally. The 31-year-old Svitolina has reasserted her aggressive idenity and confirmed it, crushing reigning Roland Garros champion Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-2 in probably the most complete matches of her Grand Slam profession. Sure, Sabalenka is extra highly effective, however Svitolina is arguably probably the most exact striker within the semifinals. Svitolina leads the match with 25 breaks of serve and if she will break early, she apply strain to the someday risky Sabalenka. Svitolina is searching for her maiden main championship and first Grand Slam closing. Each time she steps on the court docket, the 31-year-old Ukrainian is taking part in for a trigger higher than herself—she’s a nationwide hero taking part in to supply pleasure and hope to her individuals who stay below siege by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of their nation. It’s a strong pressure that may propel Svitolina to the upset right here.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka d. Elina Svitolina in 2 units
(6) Jessica Pegula (USA) vs. (5) Elena Rybakina (KAZ)
Head-to-head: Even 3-3
Grand Slam head-to-head: First main assembly
Australian Open Data: Pegula 20-6 (Greatest Consequence: 2026 Semifinals); Rybakina 19-6 (Greatest Consequence: 2023 Finalist)
2026 Data: Pegula 8-1; Rybakina 7-1
Profession Grand Slam Data: Pegula 62-27; Rybakina 64-22
Profession Grand Slam Titles: Pegula None; Rybakina 1 (2022 Wimbledon)
Age: Pegula 31; Rybakina 26
Peak: Pegula 5’7”; Rybakina 6’0”
Profession Prize Cash: Pegula $21,944,750; Rybakina $24,476,357
Jessica Pegula on Elena Rybakina:
“So far as Rybakina, I simply performed her in Riyadh. She was taking part in actually good tennis. Clearly gained the occasion. It’s going to be actually robust. Anybody that serves like she does, she’s at all times going to be within the match. Not simply serve, however return and from the bottom. You already know, it’s not like she will solely serve. She has a reasonably well-rounded, all-around energy recreation. I’m going to form of take a look at some stuff I did in Riyadh and see if I can change some stuff, however yeah, it doesn’t get any simpler from right here on out.”
Elena Rybakina on Jessica Pegula:
“I might say, however an important for me to be centered on my serve, because it’s a giant benefit if it really works, and keep aggressive within the rallies..[Pegula] may be very skilled opponent and he or she strikes nicely, and likewise her ball stays fairly low. In order that makes a bit troublesome generally to play her, however I’ll attempt to alter. Yeah, we’ll see who’s going to win. I speak with my workforce. We make some plan for the match. Yeah, will attempt to do my greatest, undoubtedly.”
Why Jessica Pegula Will Win
The template for Pegula to win this match comes from her quarterfinal win over Amanda Anisimova, who like Rybakina, is a tall energy participant who crushes the two-handed backhand. The flat-hitting Pegula should hold the ball low to make the 6’ Rybakina bend as she generally struggles to get below the low ball. Pegula is the higher mover and if she will make the WTA Finals champion transfer corner-to-corner she will drain errors and dent the previous Wimbledon champion’s confidence. Sure, Pegula is going through the largest server in girls’s tennis, however she’s been a sniper on return. Pegula’s 24 breaks in 5 matches is second solely to Svitolina (25). At it’s core, this match comes all the way down to Pegula’s skill to increase factors vs. Rybakina’s skill to exterminate them. If Pegula can play to the lofty stage she did towards Anisimova and make Rybakina play the additional ball, she will prevail.
Why Elena Rybakina Will Win
Aryna Sabalenka is the world’s greatest participant, however Elena Rybakina has performed the world’s greatest tennis over the previous 4 months. Rybakina rolled to the WTA Finals championship defeating Iga Swiatek, Pegula and Sabalenka in succession to rule Riyadh. Within the AO quarterfinals, Rybakina ripped 11 aces dismissing Swiatek 7-5, 6-1 regardless of serving simply 49 p.c. Rybakina not solely beat Swiatek, she beat the assumption out of the Pole. A red-hot Rybakina scored her 18th win in her final 19 matches—-and she’s posted eight straight Prime 10 victories in that span. The 2025 WTA ace chief Rybakina will win as a result of she will disarm Pegula along with her serve and dispatch her along with her first strike. Rybakina can command the middle of the court docket, she leads the match with 35 aces and within the all-important second-serve factors gained class, Rybakina has been resolute profitable 61 p.c of her second serve factors. The 2023 AO finalist is firing with confidence and if she holds her nerve she’s going to proceed this roll into the ultimate.
Prediction: Elena Rybakina d. Jessica Pegula in 3 units
