The Blue Jays are making a serious splash on the high of the rotation. Toronto is in settlement with Dylan Stop on a seven-year contract, pending a bodily. It’s reportedly a $210MM assure for the Boras Company consumer, although it consists of deferred cash that’ll drop the typical annual worth for luxurious tax functions to roughly $26MM. That places the web current worth nearer to $182MM.
Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the biggest free agent signing in franchise historical past. Although the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this 12 months, they’d by no means gone past George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.
Stop, 30 subsequent month, entered free company as a take a look at case of how a lot fashionable entrance places of work care about earned run common. In two of the previous three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, together with a 4.55 mark in 2025. Nonetheless, in nearly each different respect, he has been nice. He has been extremely sturdy. His management isn’t superb however he has racked up strikeouts. He has saved his fastball velocity within the higher 90s, whereas additionally that includes a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.
Although Stop debuted again in 2019, he has truly by no means been on the main league injured checklist, aside from a really temporary stint on the COVID checklist in 2021. He made 12 begins within the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at the very least 32 occasions in every full season since. In whole, he’s made 174 begins because the begin of 2020, which leads all main league pitchers. He typically doesn’t pitch deep into video games, nevertheless, so he’s ninth in that span by way of innings.
On high of the amount, the standard has been sturdy. For that very same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% stroll fee was a bit on the excessive facet however he punched out 28.9% of batters confronted with a 14.4% swinging strike fee.
As talked about, his ERA has wobbled in recent times, nevertheless it has carried out so whereas different components of his recreation have stayed extra constant. He truly noticed his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at the moment, he completed second in American League Cy Younger voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot as much as 4.58 in 2023, dropped to three.47 in 2024 after which climbed again as much as 4.55 this 12 months.
However throughout these ups and downs, his strikeout and stroll charges have been much less unstable. His strikeout fee did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, however then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% within the two most up-to-date campaigns. His 10.4% stroll fee in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and eight.5% within the subsequent two years, adopted by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.
His batting common on balls in play, which tends to be a bit extra luck based mostly, has synched up extra along with his ERA shifts. A typical BABIP is normally round .290 however Stop was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the opposite method to .330 in 2023 as Stop’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 within the two most up-to-date seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed once more.
As such, ERA estimators have thought-about Stop to be way more regular than his precise ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and three.72 for the previous 4 years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, after which has been at 3.46 and three.58 in 2024 and 2025.
As we had been deliberating our High 50 Free Brokers publish at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether or not the inconsistent ERA would damage his incomes energy, maybe main him to just accept a short-term take care of opt-outs, or if groups would overlook the ERA and signal him based mostly on his consistency in different areas. In the long run, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Stop has surpassed that by way of sticker value, although the deferrals will seemingly put the web current worth nearer just under that projection.
The Blue Jays are coming off their finest season in years, as they charged all the best way to Recreation Seven of the World Sequence, in the end falling to the Dodgers in further innings. Nonetheless, the season ended with loads of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer turned free brokers. Shane Bieber had a $16MM participant choice he appeared prone to decline. In the long run, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming marketing campaign.
Previously few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved significantly. Trey Yesavage got here up late within the 12 months and was instantly in a position to get hitters out, rapidly establishing himself as a rotation constructing block. Bieber surprisingly determined to set off his participant choice and stick to the Jays for yet another 12 months. Now Stop is within the fold for the long term.
That offers the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Stop, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis additionally within the combine. Although Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming marketing campaign, with Berríos doubtlessly becoming a member of them, Stop can function a bridge to a different period. By then, it’s attainable Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgical procedure and is again within the combine. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might need climbed into the image by then as effectively.
Toronto is paying a big value to lock Stop in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll round $232MM, whereas their luxurious tax quantity was proper across the $244MM base threshold. It gained’t be clear how a lot both quantity goes up till the cost and deferral construction is reported. The CBT quantity relies on the contract’s common annual worth, so the wage breakdown doesn’t matter for tax functions, however the deferrals cut back the contract’s precise worth by round $4MM yearly.
In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this can push them past the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, which means they’re taxed at a 30% fee for his or her first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% fee on any additional spending. The Stop deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, however the penalties will get larger with any extra important additions.
The Jays virtually actually aren’t carried out. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have curiosity in re-signing Bo Bichette. It appears honest to imagine they gained’t signal all three of this offseason’s high free brokers, however a Bichette reunion might nonetheless be in play. They’ve additionally been linked to late-inning bullpen assist, ideally a confirmed nearer who’d push Jeff Hoffman right into a leverage function within the seventh and eighth innings.
Stop rejected a qualifying provide from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the best penalty to signal a certified free agent as a result of they paid the aggressive steadiness tax this 12 months. They’ll give up their second- and fifth-highest alternatives within the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their worldwide bonus pool in 2027. San Diego additionally paid the posh tax this 12 months, in order that they’re entitled to the bottom type of compensation: a range after the fourth spherical subsequent summer season. They’ll get one other of these if/when Michael King indicators elsewhere.
Jon Heyman of The New York Put up first reported the Blue Jays and Stop had been in settlement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, whereas Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.
Picture courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Pictures.
