Braves Bolster Bullpen by Including Robert Suarez

Final month, the Braves retained Raisel Iglesias following a rollercoaster season wherein he briefly misplaced his nearer job earlier than reclaiming it and dominating down the stretch. Thoughts you, a stretch throughout which the group was enjoying out the string on its option to an 86-loss season and a fourth-place end within the NL East. Now Atlanta has added one other late-game reliever in Robert Suarez, who after opting out of his take care of the Padres has agreed to a three-year, $45 million contract with the Braves.

Suarez, who will flip 35 on March 1, spent the previous 4 seasons with the Padres after pitching in Japan from 2016–21, a span interrupted by Tommy John surgical procedure in ’17. After a powerful stateside debut in 2022, he rejected a $5 million participant possibility and rapidly re-signed with San Diego on a five-year, $46 million contract. That deal paid him $10 million yearly from 2023–25 and included efficiency bonuses in addition to a pair of $8 million participant choices, which he declined after this yr’s World Sequence, permitting him to hit the open market. Reportedly, his new deal pays him $13 million in 2026, with salaries of $16 million in each ’27 and ’28; not one of the cash is deferred. With that, the Braves at present have the relievers with the fifth- and sixth-highest common annual values within the majors, with solely Edwin Díaz ($23 million AAV), Josh Hader ($19 million AAV), Tanner Scott ($18 million AAV), and Devin Williams ($17 million AAV) forward of Iglesias ($16 million, on a one-year deal) and Suarez ($15 million AAV).

Suarez made the NL All-Star group in each 2024 and ’25 whereas closing for the Padres, placing up a pair of superficially related seasons: a 2.77 ERA in 65 innings, with 36 saves (third within the league) in 42 alternatives within the former, and a 2.97 ERA in 69 2/3 innings, with an NL-high 40 saves in 45 alternatives within the latter. Beneath the floor, his FIP dropped from 3.49 to 2.88, pushed by a spike in strikeout charge from 22.9% to 27.9%, and fewer dramatic drops in his already-low stroll charge (from 6.2% to five.9%) and residential run charge (from 0.97 per 9 to 0.78). On account of that improved FIP, his WAR greater than doubled, from 0.9 to 1.9.

Suarez missed extra bats whereas shaking up a reasonably easy plan. He’s received excellent command of two high-spin, high-velocity fastballs, a four-seamer that averaged 98.6 mph in 2025 and a sinker that averaged 98.4 mph; he offsets these with a changeup that itself hums alongside at a median of 90.5 mph. In 2025, he decreased the utilization of his four-seamer to 60.4%, down from 72.4%; he compensated by throwing his changeup about twice as typically (from 12.6% to 23.9%) whereas holding his sinker utilization roughly fixed (15.5% in 2025). Although his whiff charge on the changeup dropped from 45.2% to 32.8% from 2024 to ’25, that was nonetheless effectively forward of the 24% whiff charge he generated along with his heater.

That stated, batters discovered the slower pitch far more hittable, batting .310 and slugging .483 for a .345 wOBA towards the changeup, in comparison with a .155 AVG and .239 SLG with a .211 wOBA towards the four-seamer. So regardless of Suarez’s improved strikeout and stroll charges, his xERA rose from 3.05 to three.66, as he was hit tougher, along with his common exit velocity growing from 89 mph to 90.5, and his barrel charge from 7.7% to 9.1%; the latter represented a drop from the forty ninth percentile to the thirty sixth, nearer to the place his 42.6% hard-hit ranked (thirty first percentile). That’s a little bit of a priority. As Ben Clemens summarized whereas rating the right-hander no. 22 on our Prime 50 Free Brokers record, “Suarez goes to show 35 earlier than Opening Day, he depends closely on velocity, and he’s so fastball-dominant that any lack of form might make him shockingly hittable in a single day.”

Each PitchingBot and Stuff+ actually like Suarez’s arsenal and his command, although outdoors of the four-seamer, they differ on the opposite two choices:

What’s jarring, then, is that ZiPS doesn’t appear to be a fan of Suarez, particularly over the lifetime of this deal:

Even Dan Szymborski, who offered that projection, appeared puzzled, telling me, “ZiPS may be very grumpy about Suarez for a purpose I haven’t found out.” The system is especially skeptical about Suarez retaining his greater strikeout charge. I’m wondering if it’s so simple as Clemens’ concern about age taking a chew out of Suarez’s fastball to the purpose that it turns into far more hittable — or, extra to the purpose, that his precise and anticipated outcomes on the four-seamer converge. He allowed a .214 xBA (59 factors greater than his AVG, a .373 xSLG (134 factors greater than his SLG), and a .286 xwOBA (75 factors greater than his wOBA). That -.075 wOBA-xwOBA hole locations him within the 93rd percentile amongst pitchers with at the least 100 outcomes towards their four-seamer.

Regardless of Suarez’s current success closing, Atlanta’s plan, at the least for now, is to make use of him as a setup man in entrance of Iglesias. It’s not exhausting to see the flexibleness this affords the group. If Iglesias — who turned his 2025 season round after dialing again the utilization of his slider — regresses in 2026, is dealt to a contender close to the commerce deadline if the Braves don’t rebound from their first sub-.500 season (and first playoff miss) since 2017, or departs as a free agent on the finish of the season, they’ve received an apparent successor.

The Suarez transfer wasn’t Atlanta’s just one on the tail finish of the Winter Conferences. On Wednesday night time, they added outfielder Mike Yastrzemski to the fold on a two-year, $23 million deal, which we’ll cowl in a separate piece tomorrow. Neither of these strikes, nor the return of Iglesias, goes to show the Braves from a 76-win group again right into a contender, however every is a step in the fitting route.