Free company gained’t formally start till 5 days after the conclusion of the World Collection, however groups are already effectively into the method of constructing their plans for the approaching offseason. For a lot of instances, that can embrace pursuits of a few of the winter’s high free agent expertise. Whereas Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker is extensively considered as the highest hitter headed into free company this November, Bruce Levine of 670 The Rating reported a connection between Chicago and one of many winter’s high pitchers: right-hander Dylan Stop. Levine stories that the Cubs are considered as a possible high suitor for Stop and that he will likely be pursued by the North Siders this winter.
Stop has vital ties each to the town of Chicago and the Cubs group as an entire. Drafted by the Cubs within the sixth-round of the 2014 draft, Stop developed right into a top-100 prospect within the Cubs group earlier than being traded alongside Eloy Jimenez within the crosstown deal that introduced Jose Quintana to Chicago previous to the 2017 commerce deadine. Whereas neither Jimenez nor Quintana fairly lived as much as expectations throughout their stints with their new golf equipment, Stop changed into the type of top-of-the-rotation arm the White Sox have been absolutely dreaming of once they made the commerce. He was the runner-up for the AL Cy Younger award with the South Siders in 2022 in his age-26 season and was traded to the Padres simply earlier than the beginning of the 2024 marketing campaign for a bundle headlined by high pitching prospect Drew Thorpe.
2024 noticed Stop put collectively one other ace-level marketing campaign as he pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 33 begins whereas hanging out 29.4% of his opponents. He completed fourth in NL Cy Younger award voting and even garnered some down-ballot MVP consideration. That appeared to arrange Stop up for a serious payday in free company so long as he might stick with it in 2025, however he stumbled this yr with a relatively pedestrian 4.55 ERA in 168 innings of labor. Stop’s peripherals have been a great deal higher than his outcomes prompt, however a tricky 2025 season creates a sample of inconsistency which may fear some suitors after a equally pedestrian 2023.
Stop may lack the type of year-to-year consistency many golf equipment search for when looking for an ace to hold their pitching employees, nevertheless it’s nonetheless straightforward to see why he could be enticing to groups. The best-hander has been one of many sport’s most sturdy arms in recent times, and his peripherals have remained way more constant than his precise outcomes. He’s struck out at the very least 200 batters in 5 consecutive seasons with at the very least 32 begins and a 165 innings in every of these seasons. Whereas his ERA has fluctuated between 2.20 and 4.58 throughout these 5 seasons, his FIP (between 3.10 and three.72) and SIERA (between 3.46 and 4.10) have been way more steady. Whereas Stop’s 3.72 ERA ranks twenty ninth amongst starters with at the very least 500 innings of labor since 2021, his FIP (twelfth), SIERA (twenty second), and xERA (eleventh) all rank extra favorably.
Maybe most significantly for the Cubs particularly, Stop throws arduous and racks up strikeouts. His strikeout charge ranks third in that aforementioned group, behind solely Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole. His fastball velocity, likewise, ranks third behind Cole and Sandy Alcantara in that very same group. Stop truly threw tougher than his profession common this yr with a 97.1 mph fastball velocity. That was good for sixth amongst certified starters this season, and his strikeout charge trailed on Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. For a Cubs rotation that had the third-lowest fastball velocity within the majors at simply 93.1 and put collectively a pedestrian 20.5% strikeout charge, Stop could be the type of energy pitcher a usually soft-tossing Cubs rotation might actually profit from.
Nearly as good of a match for the Cubs as Stop may appear to be on paper, that shouldn’t be taken to imply a deal is essentially prone to get finished. Stop can have loads of suitors as one of many high starters in the marketplace, and large spenders just like the Mets are recognized to be out there for rotation assist this winter. Stop’s familiarity with the Cubs group and the town of Chicago is unlikely to provide the Cubs a big leg up contemplating that Stop is a consumer of the Boras Company, and agent Scott Boras’s shoppers aren’t recognized for affording a lot of a hometown low cost in free company.
The Cubs haven’t spent on the high of the free agent market fairly often in recent times. Since signing Jon Lester and Jason Heyward in back-to-back offseasons in 2014 and ’15, the Cubs have signed simply two gamers to offers price $100MM or extra: Yu Darvish, who was famously traded to the Padres midway by way of his six-year, $126MM pact with Chicago, and Dansby Swanson. Stop will certainly be searching for a contract price at the very least that a lot, and it’s unclear if the Cubs could be keen to exit of their consolation zone to land him.
One other issue could possibly be the Qualifying Provide, because the Cubs have usually been reluctant to signal certified free brokers. Swanson is the one free agent Chicago has signed with a QO connected exterior of re-signing their very own gamers since they signed John Lackey to a two-year deal in December of 2015. Even when the Cubs aren’t fascinated by enjoying on the high of the market, it’s at the very least potential that they’d circle again to Stop later this offseason if his market doesn’t materialize, as they did with Cody Bellinger in the course of the 2023-24 offseason and tried to do with Alex Bregman final winter.
It’s additionally price questioning whether or not including a beginning pitcher would be the staff’s high precedence this winter to start with. Whether or not they pursue a reunion with Tucker or not, concentrating on a bat in free company might make some sense provided that the membership’s inside choices to exchange him within the lineup could be unproven prospects Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara. The bullpen may also be a precedence given that each excessive leverage reliever from this yr’s aid corps besides Daniel Palencia is scheduled to hit free company this winter.
In fact, beginning pitching might grow to be a bigger precedence for the membership in a rush relying on how the choice choices between the membership and southpaw Shota Imanaga play out within the coming days. Imanaga departing without spending a dime company would create some urgency to exchange him within the rotation, whereas him remaining within the fold alongside Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Cade Horton with Justin Steele anticipated again from surgical procedure within the first half of subsequent season could possibly be sufficient rotation expertise to persuade the Cubs to prioritize enhancing different areas of the roster. Colin Rea’s discount $6MM membership possibility for 2025 is prone to be picked up, and he’ll be a part of Javier Assad as high quality depth for the Cubs rotation headed into subsequent yr past their on-paper beginning 5.
