Cubs Land Alex Bregman on 5-Yr Deal

It was a giant evening in Chicago. On Saturday, about an hour earlier than Caleb Williams and the Bears defeated the Packers within the Wild Card spherical, erasing an 18-point deficit with a fourth-quarter comeback so livid that it earned the uncommon non-baseball wheeee from Sarah Langs, the Cubs elicited a distinct sort of dopamine rush. As Jon Heyman of The New York Submit first reported, Alex Bregman has agreed to a five-year, $175 million contract to play in Wrigley Subject. A yr after Bregman signed a high-value, prove-it pact with the Purple Sox, he’s lastly gotten the long-term deal he sought, whereas the Cubs acquired a premier participant to interchange free agent Kyle Tucker. The deal comprises no opt-outs and a full no commerce clause. It’s the third-largest in franchise historical past, although on Sunday morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that it comprises $70 million in deferred cash, dropping the common annual worth to only over $30 million. Bregman ought to stay in Wrigley by his age-36 season. It’s a big transfer, and the seemingly pièce de résistance for one of the aggressive offseasons in current reminiscence for the Cubs.

Simply in case you want a refresher on his résumé, Bregman ranked second on our Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist this winter, and for good purpose. He’s a two-time World Sequence champion and three-time All-Star who owns a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, an All-Star Recreation MVP, and two top-five AL MVP finishes. Since his first full season in 2017, he’s accrued 41.8 WAR, eighth most amongst all place gamers. Other than a partial rookie yr and the truncated 2020 marketing campaign, he’s completed under 3.0 WAR simply as soon as, in an injury-shortened 2021 season. (Any profession recap additionally has to incorporate no less than some point out of Bregman’s function in Houston’s sign-stealing scheme in 2017 and 2018. Bregman would specific remorse concerning the scandal, however his preliminary deflections – “the commissioner made his report, the Astros made their determination, no additional touch upon it” – rankled followers, and his apologies fell flat with many exterior of Houston.)

Bregman is now not the MVP candidate he was in 2018 and 2019, when he ran a mixed 162 wRC+ and put up 16.2 WAR, however he’s been terribly constant ever since. Not solely has he averaged a 124 wRC+ over the previous six seasons, he’s stored inside 13 factors of that mark each single yr and he’s mixed that offensive excellence with nice protection at third. He earned MVP votes as not too long ago as 2023, and he was on tempo to choose up some extra in 2025 till a quad pressure and a late-August stoop modified the trajectory of his season; he nonetheless managed a .273/.360/.462 line with 18 house runs, a 125 wRC+, and three.5 WAR in 114 video games.

It is a comfortable ending to a protracted, twisty story for each Bregman and his agent, Scott Boras. Bregman ranked third on final offseason’s Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist. After 9 years with the Astros (together with a five-year, $100 million extension in 2019), the then 30-year-old Bregman wished a long-term contract. Regardless of curiosity from a number of groups, he didn’t discover the deal he was searching for, although he did discover loads of {dollars}. Hampered by a qualifying supply, Bregman signed with Boston throughout spring coaching for 3 years and $120 million, with an decide out after every season (and a few deferred cash). In response to experiences, the Tigers had supplied six years and $171.5 million with an opt-out after the 2026 season, whereas the Cubs supplied 4 years and $120 million with opt-outs in each 2026 and 2027. Bregman wager on himself with the shorter, high-AAV deal, and he’s now cashing in. If you mix the 2 contracts, he ended up getting $215 million over six years, which is, in accordance with sources, plenty of cash. Bregman is simply the newest Boras shopper to efficiently execute the trampoline two-step, becoming a member of Pete Alonso, Blake Snell, and Matt Chapman. Cody Bellinger is certain to really feel heartened.

For the Purple Sox, alternatively, it’s wanting an increasing number of prefer it’s Bo Bichette or bust. Even after touchdown Willson Contreras, with out Bregman or Rafael Devers, our depth charts have them ranked fifteenth or worse at each infield place (together with catcher), and twentieth or worse in any respect however first base.

As for the Cubs, they’re actually doing the rattling factor. At 92-70, the crew had the sixth-best file in baseball in 2025, and their Pythagorean win-loss file indicated that they deserved to be even higher. They made the playoffs for the primary time since 2020, they usually’ve actually acquired sufficient expertise across the diamond to benefit going all-in. They utterly overhauled their bullpen this winter, they usually’ve now made a significant roster enchancment for the second time in 4 days, the primary being their commerce for right-hander Edward Cabrera.

With Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki all attributable to enter free company after the 2026 season, Bregman offers some a lot wanted stability to Chicago’s place participant group. He’ll slot in subsequent to shortstop Dansby Swanson, the primary total decide within the 2015 draft (and the rationale Bregman wears no. 2 on his uniform). Though he’ll flip 32 in March, the Cubs are getting top-of-the-line third baseman within the sport proper now. Over the previous 4 seasons, Bregman has put up a mixed 17.5 WAR, which ranks 18th amongst place gamers. In that timeframe, he owns three of the highest 20 seasons on the place. The one different participant who can say the identical is José Ramírez. (Bregman’s harm shortened 2025 season additionally is available in at twenty eighth.)

Bregman represents an improve over Matt Shaw, who will presumably shift right into a utility function or discover himself on the buying and selling block. Chicago’s 0.0 WAR at third base in 2025 ranked twenty seventh and made it their worst spot on the diamond, although that wasn’t actually the fault of Shaw, who put up 1.2 WAR at third (and 1.5 total); he was simply canceled out by the adverse worth accrued by all 5 of the opposite gamers to spend time on the place. His remaining crew management might make him an interesting commerce goal, although rumors abound that Shaw might shift to second and Hoerner might find yourself traded. Hoerner is due $12 million in 2026, the final yr of his contract. Coming off a career-best 4.8-win season, his worth has by no means been greater.

How the Cubs resolve their infield logjam – and which different positions they select to bolster – shall be fascinating to look at. Even with Cabrera and the eventual return of Justin Steele, our depth charts have the Cubs’ beginning pitching projected for simply 11.2 WAR, which ranks simply nineteenth although it might be an enchancment of almost a full win over the ten.3 mark they put up in 2025. In the event that they’re actually going for it, the plain subsequent step can be so as to add an affect starter. In the meantime, proper discipline was and stays the largest gap on the roster, nevertheless it appears unlikely that the Cubs will hand out one other big deal to fill it with the likes of Bellinger or Tucker. At North Aspect Baseball, Matthew Trueblood wrote that after touchdown Cabrera earlier within the week, possession gave president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer permission to cross into luxurious tax territory. Signing Bregman places them proper on the edge, although it’s nonetheless potential that they’ll duck beneath it, particularly in the event that they commerce an infielder.

In the event you’re a Cubs fan and also you need to cease studying right here, be happy to just do that. The remainder of the article shall be dedicated to the potential downsides of the deal, and you’re completely entitled take a pair days to take pleasure in watching your crew make a critical bid at World Sequence rivalry with out worrying about park results and what may occur in 2030.

OK, you’ve been warned. Any long-term deal represents a danger, and Bregman shall be 36 on the finish of this one. He’s seemingly acquired some put on on his tires; since his debut in 2016, his 1,225 video games performed is tied for twenty third most in baseball, and he ranks fifteenth in defensive innings performed. He’s additionally coming off an injury-shortened season the place he fell off fairly exhausting within the second half. Then there’s his offensive profile.

Bregman has by no means possessed top-shelf bat velocity or wowed together with his exit velocities. He’s by no means as soon as hit a ball 110 mph, a feat achieved by 308 totally different main leaguers within the 2025 season alone. As a substitute, he’s succeeded by a mix of elite plate self-discipline, elite contact expertise, and a preternatural skill to tug the ball within the air in an effort to maximize his injury. The excellent news is that plate self-discipline tends to age properly, however one other strategy to describe Bregman’s lift-and-pull tendencies can be to say that his swing is already optimized. He’s already acquired one thing resembling the growing older slugger swing that Joshua Rodrigues described so aptly final week over at Baseball Prospectus. He’s not beginning out with a lot margin for error, so issues might get ugly when his bat velocity or his contact expertise begin to go. And Bregman is already gradual and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the protection might crater fairly rapidly too.

The extra quick concern is that Wrigley Subject isn’t significantly conducive to Bregman’s offensive method. Bregman has spent his whole profession in Houston and Boston, taking part in in parks just about designed for somebody together with his actual swing. The shallow Crawford Packing containers and the even shallower Inexperienced Monster made him appear like a god. Over the course of the Statcast period, 174 gamers have hit no less than 100 house runs. Bregman’s common house run distance of 384 toes ranks 173rd. We’re about to seek out out for the primary time in his 10-year profession what it seems like when, pleasant or not, the confines aren’t tailored for his swing.

In response to Statcast’s park components, Wrigley Subject ranks proper in the midst of the pack when it comes to house runs for right-handed hitters and useless final for doubles. Extra importantly for Bregman, the left discipline nook has a deep cutout; Cubs followers keep in mind properly the 85 wRC+ and .084 ISO that lifter-puller Isaac Paredes ran throughout his brief stint with the crew on the finish of the 2024 season. Paredes hit only one ball out at Wrigley, to go along with a number of extra that regarded like hassle for a second earlier than touchdown harmlessly within the left fielder’s glove.

So the draw back is there and it’s scary. Even taking the deferrals into consideration, Bregman will tie up a major proportion of Chicago’s payroll by the start of the subsequent decade. Nonetheless, that is in all probability the mistaken time for doomsaying. Over the course of his profession, Bregman truly has just a few extra house runs on the highway than at house. Ought to he work out how to reach Wrigley, ought to he age gracefully, he’s acquired an opportunity of ending up in Cooperstown. It will be no less than somewhat bit silly to rely out a participant who possesses elite expertise and has a succeeded on the highest stage for so long as Bregman has. It’s encouraging for the Cubs to be on the rise, and it’s much more encouraging to see them performing prefer it.