Emilio Pagán Returns to Cincinnati

It’s been a busy December totally free agent relievers. Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams, two of probably the most fascinating names available on the market, every signed with new golf equipment, and so they every received multi-year ensures regardless of shaky 2025 outcomes. The subsequent shoe to drop wasn’t fairly as heralded of an possibility, however he too received a number of years and beat market consensus. The signing in query: Emilio Pagán and the Reds agreed to a two-year, $20 million deal, with an decide out after the primary yr.

Pagán was a much more efficient reliever in 2025 than both of the 2 splashier names forward of him. He had top-of-the-line seasons of his profession at age 34, actually: 68 2/3 innings pitched, a 2.88 ERA and three.72 FIP in hitter-friendly Cincinnati, and 32 saves in his first full-time closing job since 2019. He bounced again from an injury-interrupted 2024 with higher fastball velocity and higher pitch form throughout the board, and received richly rewarded for it with a 30% strikeout price. Is he homer-prone? You wager, because of a 0.51 GB/FB ratio. However a .200 BABIP and a strong HR/FB% (10.8%) meant that he really allowed fewer homers per 9 innings (1.31) than his profession mark (1.51), and never by a small quantity, regardless of pitching in a launching pad.

When issues are going effectively for him, Pagán makes everybody suppose they will hit a house run, then pulls the rug out. He runs his four-seamer excessive and spots a heavy splitter off of it, a basic fly ball pitcher combine. It’s a type of methods that appears terrible when it isn’t working, and but appears to return by more often than not anyway. Extra particularly, Pagán went by a three-year stretch of horrible kind from 2020-2022, posting a 4.61 ERA and 4.71 FIP. Then he broke out in 2023 and has been strong since. The weirdest a part of all of it? His stuff and command metrics barely budged between these two wildly totally different stretches.

Reversals like that go a good distance towards explaining why reliever efficiency is so troublesome to foretell. When Pagán has it, he’s a worthy late-inning reliever. His ERA- was fortieth amongst relievers final yr, and it’s sixtieth over the previous three years, even along with his ineffective 2024 within the combine. He’s pitched such as you’d count on a better or setup man to, in different phrases. His FIP tells a broadly related story, and I’m prepared to imagine that pitchers along with his excessive tendencies outperform their FIP in the long term. Should you get good Pagán, he’s a really helpful bullpen piece, the type any group would like to have within the bullpen and lots of fringe contenders would like to have as a better.

That’s the calculus from the Reds’ perspective. They’ve managed their payroll tightly within the early years of Elly De La Cruz’s group management window, hovering across the $100 million mark with wiggle room in both route. With that price range constraint in thoughts, the highest 5 or so relievers on this free company class had been presumably off the board. The subsequent tier down is a mix of fascinating pop-up arms, growing older closers, and reclamation initiatives. Would you relatively have Kenley Jansen or Pagán? Seranthony Domínguez? Kyle Finnegan? Phil Maton? Perhaps Drew Pomeranz? I believe I’d take Pagán or Jansen over the sphere – I ranked them that approach in my High 50 Free Brokers listing – and as an added bonus, he’s already accustomed to Cincinnati. I’d take Raisel Iglesias over him – rankings, once more – however he signed for one yr and $16 million, most likely outdoors of this group’s value vary. The Reds most likely might’ve gotten some strong lefty specialists for the $10 million or so annual wage that they gave Pagán, however that’s not what they had been out there for this winter. They wanted a bankable nearer, and within the aisle they had been buying in, there weren’t that many choices.

This group actually does want aid arms. The Reds didn’t should cowl many bullpen innings in 2025, however even then they struggled to piece all of it collectively. Pagán, Tony Santillan, and Graham Ashcraft fashioned an efficient three-headed monster on the high, however the remainder of the pen was ineffective even in restricted time. With a bandbox for a house stadium, it’s onerous to count on a equally restricted want for aid pitching in 2026. This was the trail of least resistance for a group that basically does must do one thing to problem for the NL Central title in 2026 and construct on its stunning 2025 Wild Card berth.

Now, the dangers? They’re actual. It was solely a yr in the past, after his down 2024 efficiency, that Cincinnati followers had been lamenting Pagán’s resolution to select up his participant possibility for 2025. Extra innings and a .200 BABIP turned that frown the other way up, but it surely’s not prefer it’s not possible to think about an ineffective Pagán. Would you be shocked if he had an uneven, homer-prone 55 innings in 2026 after which picked up his possibility? I actually wouldn’t be. We simply noticed that!

That leaves me within the scenario of liking this deal extra for Pagán than for the Reds, and but I’d make this provide if I had been of their footwear anyway. Determining which relievers shall be good in a yr’s time is extremely troublesome. If it had been simple to resolve, the Dodgers wouldn’t have signed Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen final winter after which spent this complete October hiding them. Regardless of that issue, relievers are integral to a contending membership. Should you aren’t profitable the shut video games, it’s onerous to make the playoffs. The Reds doubtless wouldn’t have performed that final yr if not for Pagán.

With that backdrop, what had been the Reds speculated to do? Signal a unique, related man for barely much less? Signal two reclamation initiatives on one-year, $5 million offers? It’s not even just like the second yr is that a lot of a catastrophe; in a yr’s time, they’re going to be contending with a core constructed round De La Cruz and searching for relievers, and I don’t suppose the market price is more likely to plummet within the meantime or something. Positive, you would possibly get dangerous Pagán in 2026 after which have him decide in, however the inherent volatility of relievers signifies that even that isn’t a tragedy. It labored out final time!

There’s some probability that Cincinnati might have waited longer, negotiated extra stingily, and reached a barely extra team-friendly cope with him. To this point, Pagán is the early signing whose market has most outstripped my projections. However who cares? What had been the Reds going to do, save one million {dollars} or two? From their perspective, the dangers had been larger, as a result of in the event that they dragged their toes in negotiating with Pagán and he signed elsewhere, they’d instantly be sifting by quite a lot of relievers they’re presumably much less fascinated by with a powerful must discover a deal. I’d desire to overpay barely for a man I’m comfy with than hunt for unknown bargains to fill a vital function, and it appears the Cincinnati entrance workplace thinks equally.

I’m not satisfied that it is a nice long-term method to run a group. It actually wouldn’t be my choice in a vacuum; I’m a Rays/Dodgers/Brewers-style bullpen man at coronary heart. I really like reclamation initiatives and throwing a number of relievers on the wall to see what sticks. I really like betting on guys with elite stuff and seeing if they will work out the way to throw strikes, or betting on guys with elite command and seeing if they will work out the way to throw tougher.

I’m additionally not operating the Reds, watching two superstars in De La Cruz and Hunter Greene and attempting to make the playoffs once more after a miracle run. Positive, it could be nice to construct an unbelievable pitching growth system from the bottom up. But it surely’s December, and the season begins in 4 months, and that’s not sufficient time to overtake a whole group, not even shut. The Reds wanted a reliever. They received a man they’re comfy with at a price that gained’t pressure them to chop again elsewhere. Perhaps it’s a slight overpay, and perhaps he’s extra risky than his 2025 outcomes would counsel, however for the Reds? He’s simply what they wanted.