Giancarlo Stanton Tries to Change Things Up After a Dreadful 2023

Following a career-worst season and a few stinging public criticism from Yankees common supervisor Brian Cashman, Giancarlo Stanton is making some modifications. Earlier this week, the oft-injured 34-year-old slugger reported to spring coaching trying considerably leaner than up to now, and on Wednesday supplied the general public with the primary glimpse of his reworked swing. Positive, this all suits into the realm of spring coaching clichés, and batting follow cuts gained’t inform us whether or not the modifications can reverse his decline or enhance his possibilities of staying wholesome, however a rebound would definitely be welcome because the Yankees try and get well from their worst report in 31 years.

Amid a season during which so many key Yankees wound up sidelined by accidents for important spells, Stanton performed in simply 101 video games, his lowest full-season complete since 2019, when he was restricted to 19 video games by left biceps and proper knee accidents. This time round, he missed 46 days resulting from a left hamstring pressure, the newest in a litany of decrease physique accidents he’s incurred for the reason that begin of 2019:

That’s 301 days on the injured record, not together with his lacking three video games within the 2019 ALCS in opposition to the Astros. In the meantime, Stanton has performed 391 common season video games, which prorates to a mean of 89 over a 162-game season.

It was with that irritating sequence of absences in thoughts that Cashman vented throughout a media session on the GM conferences in Arizona final November, “I’m not going to let you know he’s gonna play each recreation subsequent yr as a result of he’s not. He’s gonna wind up getting harm once more, extra probably than not, as a result of it appears to be a part of his recreation.” To be honest, Cashman instantly added, “However I do know that when he’s proper and wholesome – aside from this previous yr – the man’s an awesome hitter and has been for a very long time.”

Stanton avoided public remark on the time, letting agent Joel Wolfe commerce volleys with the GM, who went into harm management mode. “I worth Giancarlo Stanton as a participant,” he advised reporters. “Definitely, he’s one of many large drivers after we do win. He’s one of many few gamers you deliver to New York that hasn’t backed down, that has dealt with himself in an expert method via thick and skinny.” The GM moreover spoke with each participant and agent to clear the air, and since then, each Cashman and Stanton have stored the substance of their dialogue personal. “He is aware of my response to that,” mentioned the latter on the Yankees’ spring coaching complicated on Monday.

Till 2023, Stanton’s absences have been mitigated not less than considerably by his productiveness. He hit .248/.338/.493 for a 130 wRC+ from 2019–22, together with .273/.354/.516 (138 wRC+) in his 139-game ’21 marketing campaign, his healthiest one in every of that stretch. He made the AL All-Star group in 2022, however his ugly last line (.211/.297/.462, 116 wRC+) hid a drastic break up: He hit .285/.339/.523 (142 wRC+) via Could 24, his final day earlier than touchdown on the IL resulting from proper ankle irritation, however simply .166/.272/.425 thereafter, and to get to a fair 100 wRC+ for that stretch required hitting house runs in his last three video games. That sorry batting line appears to be like so much like final yr’s one (.191/.275/.420), although with rising scoring ranges, the latter was good for simply an 89 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR. Since that ankle-related IL stint, he owns a 93 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR in 699 PA. It ain’t nice.

As ever, Stanton struck out so much, however that wasn’t his major drawback. By way of total strikeout charge, his 29.9% was down 0.4 factors from 2022, and useless even with ’18. His 34.1% whiff charge was proper at his Statcast-era common, down 2.4 factors from 2022, and down 0.3 factors from ’18. His 13.7% swinging strike charge and his 29.4% chase charge have been each equally beneath 2018, ’22, and his profession marks.

Likewise, Stanton continued to place a cost within the ball when he linked, if not fairly as exhausting as lately (I’ve omitted 2019 and ’20 resulting from their small samples):

Not all contact is created equal, in fact. Stanton pulled the ball 41.1% of the time in 2023, up from 36.5% in ’22 and his highest full-season charge since ’17, when he was nonetheless a Marlin. Normally, pulled fly balls are typically the most efficient, whereas reverse discipline groundballs are typically extra productive than pulled ones even after the banning of infield shifts. What we see with Stanton is that his outcomes on pulled groundballs — which was once fairly good, as a result of he hit them so exhausting — have deteriorated drastically, as have his outcomes on pulled fly balls:

As a result of xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA don’t account for spray angle, I’ve as an alternative used the annual league-wide averages for right-handed hitters the place I’d often put these figures. You possibly can see that Stanton was method beneath these averages final yr regardless of exit velos about 5 mph above the league-wide averages. His launch angles have been significantly excessive, provided that righties averaged -12.0 levels on pulled grounders and 34.7 levels on pulled fly balls. His 37.2-degree common on the latter was so excessive as to be unproductive; he was over 500 factors in need of the league common slugging share on fly balls. I couldn’t match it into the desk, however the estimated common distance on his pulled fly balls in 2023 was 344 toes, a full 20 toes shorter than his common from the yr earlier than; he averaged 356 toes in 2018 and 348 in ’21.

A few of the lacking manufacturing in all probability owes to Stanton’s pace, or lack of it. His dash pace fell from the 69th percentile in 2018 to the thirteenth percentile by ’21, and was all the way down to the fourth percentile final yr. It’s probably that a few of that is intentional — his not working exhausting at instances is a technique to stop accidents or to keep away from turning minor aches into main issues — but it surely’s little doubt costing him hits right here and there, contributing to his shortfalls in batting common relative to xBA. The truth is, a fast take a look at his participant web page reveals that his charge of infield hits per groundball (IFH% on his participant web page) has fallen from 12.8% in 2018 to 4.4% in ’21, 4.1% in ’22 and a pair of.8% final yr.

In the meantime, Stanton acquired below much more balls than common, no matter course, resulting in a better share of innocent popups and flies. His 26.6% Below charge was his highest of the Statcast period, nicely above his 19.7% in 2022; he hadn’t been above 22% since ’16. He went 6-for-66 on these balls in 2023, which was really higher than his 2-for-52 in ’22 or his 4-for-70 in ’21; the issue was that these balls occupied a bigger share of his contact.

Although he nonetheless slugged .533 in opposition to four-seamers and .516 in opposition to sinkers, Stanton was a lot much less productive in opposition to fastballs of each varieties than up to now. He struggled with sliders, as he often does, and was totally helpless in opposition to curveballs, which was comparatively new. In 2018, he hit .233 and slugged .517 in opposition to curves, and even in ’22, he was at .222 AVG/.389 SLG; final yr, he plummeted to .115 AVG/.269 SLG. His warmth maps present that he has critical holes in his swing. Right here’s a comparability between his warmth maps for barreled balls in opposition to fastballs (the highest pair) and breaking balls (the underside pair); 2018 is on the left and ’23 on the correct. Be aware how a lot smaller the protection of the latter is — he didn’t barrel a single ball in opposition to pitches exterior these areas — and the way there may be a lot much less pink.

Right here’s a take a look at the development of Stanton’s total xwOBAs by Gameday zone:

Take a look at the sequence within the decrease proper nook of the strike zone. Inside this timespan, Stanton’s xwOBAs in that cell have dropped from .287 to .252 to .207 to .129 (see right here to zoom in on the numbers). In the meantime, all the pink has disappeared from the higher and outer thirds of the zone. As Alex Chamberlain wrote final week, that higher third is especially vital in terms of producing pulled fly balls, so it doesn’t assist that Stanton’s whiff charge in that a part of the zone has climbed from 23.1% in 2018 to a decimal or two on both aspect of 30% within the final two seasons — greater than double the league-wide charge.

Notably in mild of the info, I’m hardly the primary to surprise if Stanton’s sequence of decrease physique accidents has compromised his flexibility, contributing to these open holes in his swing. Certainly, in September at Pinstripe Alley, Malachi Hayes constructed on FanGraphs contributor Esteban Rivera’s visible breakdown of some mechanical points Stanton was having, declaring the slugger’s elevated issue with low breaking balls and the best way pitchers have been going even decrease in opposition to him:

Sliders and changeups, making up a couple of third of the pitches he sees, are crossing the plate rather less than two inches decrease and slightly bit farther away than they’ve over the previous few years. It feels like a small change, however the distinction reveals up in warmth maps — particularly in opposition to right-handed pitchers — and it appears more and more clear that he simply can’t go down and get these pitches like he used to.

Stanton, whose work ethic and conditioning have by no means been doubtful throughout the group, advised reporters he spent the offseason specializing in mobility and on altering his swing. Improved mobility ought to assist him discover time in an outfield combine that may embrace Alex Verdugo in left, Aaron Decide in middle, and Juan Soto in proper. Gentle-hitting Trent Grisham will help in middle, and whereas that might imply Decide spending time in left discipline, as supervisor Aaron Boone steered final month, it’s in all probability going to imply a variety of DH obligation for No. 99 as nicely, given his personal harm historical past. The scenario will solely develop into extra crowded as soon as Jasson Domínguez returns from the Tommy John surgical procedure he had in September. Until Stanton can play the outfield — extra probably proper discipline, with Soto slotting in left — he stands to lose enjoying time. He performed simply 33 video games within the outfield final yr, and 38 the yr earlier than, and the outcomes have been fairly poor (a mixed -7 DRS, -4 RAA, and -0.8 UZR in 567 innings for the 2 seasons). Extra mobility definitely couldn’t harm.

As for the promised modifications, right here’s a glimpse of the 6-foot-4 Stanton (listed at 245 kilos however trying lighter) showing form of skinny subsequent to the 6-foot-7, 282-pound Decide, through Newsday’s Erik Boland:

Decide and Stanton after enjoying catch pic.twitter.com/kxZUjVx2sE

— Erik Boland (@eboland11) February 19, 2024

Right here’s a side-by-side comparability of Stanton’s stance, from final season to this yr, courtesy of The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner:

Facet by aspect look of Giancarlo Stanton’s stance from movies I shot. Left is right now. Proper is final yr.

We’ll see what it appears to be like like with the sport angle digital camera.

Stanton mentioned he was making some modifications to his swing https://t.co/i2MsLICKPA pic.twitter.com/cs3Tmmp9m8

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 21, 2024

And right here he takes a BP minimize:

Right here’s Giancarlo Stanton pic.twitter.com/e9QOSWCgGy

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 20, 2024

Stanton is extra upright, along with his again leg nearer to the plate than earlier than, however at this degree of depth and the restricted variety of angles, it’s robust to say greater than that. Provided that it’s February, his modifications — and people of all people else who reported to camp speaking about swing tweaks, new pitches, and improved coaching regimens — ought to be thought-about a piece in progress. With the addition of Soto, there’s a bit much less stress on Stanton to be one of many lineup’s major producers, however the Yankees can’t justify enjoying him if he remans beneath substitute degree. We’ll see quickly sufficient whether or not he can return to being near the damaging hitter he was once.