[ad_1]
12:02
: Good morning from Tempe! Thanks for testing all of our Prospect Week work for the location, together with this chat.
12:02
: Let’s get proper into it.
12:03
: You’re a bit decrease on Colt Emerson than a variety of the {industry} it appears. What does he want to point out to stand up into that ~50 vary? And ideas on Jeter Martinez?
12:06
: I like Emerson lots, ideally he performs somewhat higher versus belt-high fastballs going ahead. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching higher than that, slider will flash. Lengthy-term dev venture, final I noticed arm motion was tremendous lengthy
12:06
: Do the Mets have a prime farm system after consuming all that cash for prospects through the commerce deadline final yr?
12:06
: Extra like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox
12:07
: What’s the meat with Kyle Manzardo, man
12:07
: Not sufficient beef, as in energy, to be a 2 annual WAR performer at 1B. Extra a forty five sort
12:08
: Why is Hollday (70) graded larger than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you’re taking over the subsequent decade, from that group?
12:08
: Higher perceived likelihood to remain at SS than I had of Gunnar at that time. Robust to not take Gunnar of these three on this second.
12:08
: What’s holding again JDP from being a prime 100 prospect? Simply have to see a bit extra energy in sport?
12:09
: Underlying swing and miss was worse than his floor Ok%, in a nook OF spot I would like you to show the hit/energy combo is actual greater than he has so far, drive my hand. Fairly mediocre really feel for the barrel, gonna have gigantic energy. There’s nonetheless a superb likelihood he pops, simply hasn’t but.
12:10
: Which prospects at the moment ranked under 75 have the very best likelihood to enter the highest 25 subsequent season?
12:10
: The youngsters in that vary
12:10
: Do chats depend as feedback? No actual query, I respect what you do. Hopefully you’ll be able to stuff Grant Brisbee in a locker.
12:10
: lol a few of them do have a remark part vibe
12:10
: Hello Eric, thanks for all the good work. After a powerful yr on the plate, why do you suppose Connor Norby isn’t a 50 FV participant, and the way does he match on the Orioles’ roster?
12:11
: LF for me, not sufficient offense to be a 50 there. Both he or Mountcastle wants to maneuver for him to play, most likely.
12:11
: How far was Jose Fleury out of your choose to click on subsequent yr ?
12:14
: He’s tremendous bizarre. This can be a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of actually wonderful changeups and cutters, fairly even pitch combine. I don’t suppose it’ll work in a method that he’ll ever be on the High 100, he solely sits like 91 mph, however he needs to be a extremely misleading lengthy reliever
12:14
: Possibly like Yusmeiro Petit sort?
12:14
: What are your ideas on some Zips100 prospects that didn’t make your listing? I noticed Jagger Haynes at #99 and I don’t suppose he’s top15 in SD’s system
12:15
: Jagger will probably be on the One other 10 Names to Know piece. Prototypical body, 91-96 throughout an entire begin, above avg curveball, ill-timed TJ price him a variety of time. Wants to point out he can maintain that velo throughout precise SP innings and dev a 3rd pitch
12:15
: I like to consider your rankings for FV as practical regular distributions for outcomes and assume that the worth you decide on is the most definitely. Is there a method that you might add SD in your evalus as a method of measuring flooring and celling? This man performs nice CF protection so it limits is flooring and due to this fact I put a 55 FV on it however the SD has extra skewness? Or is that this simply dressing up what’s a qualitative course of with opinion values to show it quantitive?
12:17
: One of many former prospect writers on the web site tried to do a model of this and other people felt it was tremendous complicated to have flooring/probably/ceiling grades. Grade+Variance is somewhat simpler and doesn’t really feel such as you’re abdicating making an precise name
12:18
: noticed an attention-grabbing quote from chris antonetti saying good issues about estevan florial. virtually each prospecter and even yankees homers had left him for useless (myself included). something change in his skillset or is antonetti simply wishcasting
12:20
: Swing modified final yr, large time lefty energy hitting his bodily prime. I actually appreciated him as a buy-low for them, has what they want in energy. Might catch lightning in a bottle for a few years whereas he’s peaking like this. Don’t suppose he’s all of the sudden a star, he’s nonetheless very flawed with Ok’s, however may have Raley/Siri run right here. He isn’t prospect eligible anymore, hasn’t been since 2022.
12:20
: Might groups worth prospects from Wake Forest much less as a result of they assume they’ve already matched out their expertise with the pitching lab?
12:20
: I dunno if “worth much less” is strictly proper however “venture much less” most likely could be.
12:20
: did you overlook Robby Snelling existed when doing the highest 100?
12:22
: pitch efficiency is fairly generic, fastball velo is under MLB common, looks like one other Ryan Weathersesque PR marketing campaign is engaged on hard-blinking on-line people
12:22
: Eric, actually liked the ‘How’s my Driving?’ piece. I hope you are able to do a model of it yearly.
12:22
: Hope to do a pair variations of it all through annually, groups lists, draft ranks, and many others. gracias
12:23
: How a lot of a unfavorable impact has the elimination of short-season leagues had on participant growth? What proportion of groups would select to have a short-season workforce, if allowed?
12:25
: I believe it harms the extent of play in A-ball as a result of guys who wouldn’t have climbed by means of quick season find yourself there. It offers fewer gamers alternative to develop however perhaps doesn’t damage any particular person’s dev? I believe the money wealthy groups would like to have extra associates, particularly ones who know they’re good at dev. Proportion smart…
12:26
: lol going through a workforce guidelines in my head, would BOS pay for one more affiliate at this level? jeepers
12:26
: most likely like half the groups? There are definnitely individuals in baseball who nonetheless suppose there are too many minor leaguers, and MLB has econ incentive to outsource as a lot of dev as doable to school baseball. I wager we see additional discount and restructuring subsequent CBA
12:27
: Curious what occurred with Ben Brown (prime 50 for you finish of season)? Are you viewing his 2nd half command points as a long run downside?
12:27
: Sufficient that it limits his function, yeah. Not sufficient that it makes him unhealthy.
12:27
: Do a particular org’s particular flaws ever impression your evaluation of a person prospect? I take a look at studies of what Spencer Jones wants to enhance upon to succeed in his ceiling and see contact charges, breaking/offspeed recognition, and floor balls, and people flaws have seemingly been endemic within the yankees’ org for half a decade now with no success tales.
12:28
: Probably not. You get into the grey space between scouting and predicting in the event you do it that method. It will really feel bizarre to have Grade X on a draft prospect, then both elevate or decrease relying on the org that drafts him. I believe most FG readers who care about prospects for the needs of fantasy baseball are good sufficient to make these sorts of changes themselves as they parse the impartial work.
12:28
: If not for the notion that he was a powerful decide to attend school, the place would Cooper Pratt have slotted within the final draft. The Brewers landed a bunch of thrilling prospects forward of him however he appears to have a comparable ceiling to the blokes taken forward of him.
12:30
: I most likely had hello ma little too excessive. He obtained $1.3 million, which is late 2nd spherical cash. He’s most likely extra early/mid second spherical in a traditional draft, was late 2 in a loaded one
12:30
: Eric and Tess, Nice work once more on Prospect Week! I subscribe to Fangraphs and different publications as a result of I really like getting a variety of opinions. I really feel such as you guys are likely to fee youthful worldwide signees larger than others whereas rating current MLB draftees somewhat decrease. I’m questioning about how a lot you want Brock Wilken, Aiden Miller, and Dillon Head, 3 draftees who missed your High 100. Thx!
12:32
: All three had been picks to click on, we like them lots. Head put actually sturdy contact knowledge on paper in professional ball. Miller did too, however I’m somewhat suss of his swing, which is like Carter Kieboom/Keston Hiura/Jeter Downs in the best way his palms loop. Let’s see how he does towards large velo. Wilken, the report. I would like 1B/3B sorts to have nearer proximity to the massive league earlier than I worth them as a 50. The youngsters’ ceilings are a lot greater than Wilken-types (Walcott, and many others) that despite the fact that they’re lower-prob gamers I wwant to worth to risk that they’re unicorn gamers forward of men like Wilken except they’re performing for some time at AA/AAA
12:32
: You’re the low guys on Tyler Black. What do you see preserving him from being a prime 100 sort? Lack of a defensive dwelling? Not sufficient bat for questionable protection?
12:34
: A number of these questions are simply going to be answered with the subsequent piece. I don’t consider in his hit device as a lot because the others, I assume. Additionally trying like a 3B/1B with 40 energy. Can you discover me a man with that profile within the bigs? Lamonte Wade? Is Wade somebody you’d 50? He’s positive however not *that* good.
12:34
: Do you suppose Colton Cowser is something greater than a platoon man?
12:35
: I don’t
12:35
: Would Drew Thorpe be a stable comp for Alonzo Treadwell? Do you’re feeling he could possibly be elite with a velo bump?
12:36
: Nah, very diff fastball profiles. One other man whose title is on this subsequent piece. Vert FB/CRV combo, sitting 92 at UCLA, may use stride alteration to shallow out his FB angle. A breakout choose as a result of Houston tends to be good at this.
12:36
: If Dominguez didn’t tear his UCL, the place would he have slotted?
12:36
: Nearer to fiftieth general
12:37
: Way back, I learn someplace that the step from A to AA was the most important leap for a minor leaguer to make. Agree?
12:37
: Triple-A to large leagues. WIthin the confines of the minors it’s most likely Excessive-A to Double-A, sure.
12:37
: Any hope to supply for Luciano being a productive common this yr? Clearly the ability’s there and he’s obtained time, however the Ok fee is… woof. The protection wasn’t stellar both, and early studies are that he’s placed on weight coming into camp. Continued contact points and a transfer to a nook of spot feels fairly bleak, proper?
12:38
: Fairly bleak, imo. 64% contact fee is under any current MLB SS, not to mention OF if he has to maneuver. Nonetheless has big juice, although.
12:38
: What’s your outlook on Leiter now? is there an opportunity he turns into entrance finish and even mid-rotation starter? is it a difficulty of form of pitches, command, management or mixture of all?
12:39
: Fastball continues to be actually good, has zero really feel for location. Kinda in Mac Gore limbo proper now, nonetheless suppose Jack will probably be a good large leaguer however most likely an RP at this level. That is his 40-man eval yr so we’d see TEX make a transfer in that regard
12:39
: Love and respect all of the content material. Simply out of curiosity, when do you guys change a prospects place? You may have Caminero as a RFer despite the fact that he hasnt performed there within the majors or minors, however you may have Shaw as 2B despite the fact that he’s taking reps at 3B and fangraphs indicated that’s the place he has the clearest path to the majors.
12:40
: Completely our projection, once I suppose it’s the best name and am tooling round within the guts of The Board, I modify it
12:40
: What occurred to the Simply Missed article?
12:40
: It’s extra a “100 extra names to know” article in order you’ll be able to think about, it’s fairly lengthy and is being edited.
12:40
: How shut was Lazaro montes to being 50’d? What does he want to point out with a purpose to be within the prime 100 a yr from now?
12:41
: One other man within the upcoming article. Gigantic child with big current uncooked, suppose the size in his swing makes him dangerous. Wanna see him alter to fastballs round his palms.
12:41
: Can science clarify why a number of projection techniques (ZiPS and Steamer) suppose Coby Mayo will play above common 3B protection? I might be thrilled, however these conclusions are the direct reverse of what prospect writers say. I believe Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since final yr.
12:43
: Yeah, evaluating minor league protection visually (when you’ll be able to truly do it completely) provides you with method higher outcomes than a proj system goes to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast sort stuff may make it easier to mannequin protection in the event you had entry to that knowledge.
12:43
: When Spencer Jones was as previous as Jasson Dominguez is correct now he had a sub .800 OPS within the SEC. Are we being too harsh on Dominguez nonetheless? Really feel like there’s a variety of upwards projection for Spencer and downwards for Jasson once they each don’t have a ton of ABs per say
12:44
: If I confirmed you all of Jasson’s swings in an excellent tight edit proper on prime of each other, you’d see how little barrel management there’s. Doesn’t imply I believe he’s unhealthy, simply suppose the long-term ceiling on Spenny is so large that he wanted to be elevated
12:45
: Age variations and variations in projection typically go hand in hand, however not so far as these two are involved. Jasson’s physique is maxed, the cement is dry. Jones’ isn’t.
12:45
: Is it simply me, or do you typically confuse Jordan Westburg and Paul Westerberg, lead singer of the Replacements?
12:45
: I confused John Henry and Patrick Henry on a historical past check in highschool and my trainer advised me my priorities had been effed
12:45
: Jordan Westburg will get overshadowed within the sturdy Orioles system. Do you suppose he will be an on a regular basis man by yr’s finish?
12:46
: I’ve extra a forty five on him as a result of the protection is kinda bleh. Could be out-talented by the others. Nonetheless a superb participant, simply ideally need him to have a lefty/protection caddy. Suppose J Ortiz was extra an omnisituational man, Westy has extra juice tho.
12:47
: For Eric/Tess: 1. How do you utilize plate self-discipline and batted ball knowledge to paint your scouting? 2. The place are you getting that knowledge from? I can solely discover it publicly obtainable on the AAA stage.
12:49
: We’re sourcing milb-wide knowledge from workforce contacts. I’m chase, chase relative to uncooked swing%, and for the primary time this offseason chase relative to 2-strike chase%. The chase knowledge is illuminating greater than in-person seems, batted ball/contact stuff serves to verify the visible scouting report and discover guys we’ve ignored.
12:49
: Observed Solometo isn’t on prime 100. What do it’s essential see from him to crack listing sooner or later?
12:51
: Two or three extra ticks. I believe he’s extra a no. 4/5 than a mid-rotatino man, there aren’t many impression starters who solely sit 91-92.
12:51
: Druw Jones? Why does nobody love him?
12:51
: Regarded so out of whack when he was wholesome final yr that there’s no method he hits except his sing modifications.
12:52
: Juan Brito was on final yr’s model of the Picks to Click on and appeared to carry out precisely as anticipated, succeeding in A+ and AA whereas exhibiting the identical mixture of contact, persistence, and somewhat pop that appeared to catch your eye final yr. Any perception as to why he missed this yr’s listing? Has the scouting report backed up, or had been you projecting a leap ahead whereas his yr was extra like treading water?
12:52
: Protection is horrible
12:52
: How tough is it to alter your fastball form? If you’ll be able to change the form, how a lot does it impression your command/management?
12:54
: Most likely simpler stated than carried out and is determined by the individual. I’ve seen man merely alter pronation/supination on launch, I’ve seen guys change the best way their wrist is positioned, I’ve seen reworked arm paths and modifications in stride route which have impression up the physique in such a method that alters arm and strategy angle. Discovering one thing the athlete can do constantly so their management doesn’t completely wash out is a crucial piece of it.
12:54
: Do you may have any ideas about David Sandlin? Breslow appears to suppose he could possibly be a serious league starter quickly.
12:54
: Fairly typical three-quarters arm slot righty with a mid-90s fastball and presently common slider. His changeup’s fee stats from 2023 recommend he needs to be throwing it extra, and we must always all be seeking to see if Boston tweaks the form/grip of his slider this yr. They’ve two years to develop him earlier than he must be placed on the 40-man.
12:55
: Any examples of very profitable pitchers with poor fastball form? How doomed is a pitcher with a “lifeless” fastball?
12:55
: Luzardo, Bibbee, Kirby…plenty of guys, you simply should do different stuff like throw actually laborious.
12:56
: Is Caba the very best defender you’ve ever seen at that age? Is he probably the most gifted defensive SS since Ozzie Smith like some say?
12:56
: Slickest infield I’ve seen since Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis
12:56
: How do you reconcile conventional scouting versus newer superior metrics approaches like Stuff+? take Sawyer Gibson-Lengthy for instance. he was by no means a excessive pedigree prospect and his fastball based on Fangraphs scouting is a 40 grade. However based on stuff+, his change-up and sinker are two of the best rated pitches within the mannequin, and his quick is above common. His FIP and xERA appear to again up his restricted outcomes. Thanks for the suggestions!
12:57
: Stuff+ overvalues guys whose stuff has lateral motion
12:57
: Is there any explicit growth concern with current Pittsburgh graduates you’ll be able to level to concerning their stalled rebuild? Three pitching prospects misplaced substantial velocity in 2023. And on the place participant facet, they gave roughly 1500 plate appearances to rookies who put up a collective 0.2 WAR. Is there one thing to level to with their younger gamers struggling a lot?
12:57
: That’s a type of backfields that I’m solely on a few times a yr, and it’s powerful for me to snoop sufficient to get a greater concept of what they’re doing with dev.
12:58
: What occurred to Yiddi Cappe final season? Is he nonetheless a prospect in your eyes or has he dropped off the map?
12:58
: Blerg, didn’t look viable at SS and never sufficient offensive juice to comfortably profile at 2b solely. I used to be overzealous final yr.
12:58
: Farmelo is a shock, tooled up excessive schooler was form of the outline of him going into the draft and as a consequence of damage he was barely capable of play within the minors, was curious if there was something extra to may observe about what you noticed throughout instructs? Did he actually stand out that rather more than most each one else?
12:59
: He performed throughout instructs after which throughout Cal League playoffs. Freakish measurement/power for a youngster once you stand proper subsequent to him, swing continues to be work in progress, loopy energy/pace combo.
12:59
: I used to be shocked to see Payton Martin omitted from the picks to click on listing. What about him fails to impress you?
1:02
: Gotta reject the premise of this query. Simply not sufficient house on P2C to incorporate each single prospect I like, he’s a prospect and will probably be on the workforce listing. 6ft righty threw lower than 40 innings final yr, sitting 95 (present me over 120 innings por favor), laborious mid-80s slider. Good prospect
1:02
: If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in subsequent years prime 100, are you able to give me your two greatest guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?
1:02
: nailed it with Baumeister i believe
1:03
: you guys are good at this and principally guessing the names on this subsequent piece
1:03
: A lot of distance between main rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doorways off in majors final yr. What separates them a lot in your eval?
1:04
: Kjerstad’s physicality and barrel management > Cowser. Cowser is a extra discerning hitter however doesn’t have almost as a lot bodily expertise. Heston seemed cumbersome and robust throughout ’22 AFL, seemed tremendous reduce and explosive in 2023, I assumed he hit a unique gear.
1:04
: As a Phillies fan, how fearful ought to I be that Mick Abel doesn’t appear to have improved a lot since he was drafted?
1:05
: A bit bit. I’m nonetheless betting on his physique and the best way it strikes in a reasonably profound method. I believe it’s extra about him getting really feel for his lengthy/explsoive physique than them altering what he’s doing.
1:05
: the dodgers appear to have actually carried out effectively with their most up-to-date DSL workforce. Who do you want greatest joendry vargas. Quintero or another person?
1:05
: effectively one in all them was on the highest 100 and one was a choose to click on
1:05
: Shocked to not see Celesten within the “that is what they appear to be” part of the picks to click on. Is that merely a results of him simply not entering into video games final yr?
1:06
: yep, additionally within the upcoming piece, noticed two video games within the Fall and seemed good on D, rusty on the dish. purely a wait and see how he seems sort, we nonetheless don’t actually *know* something in regards to the hit device with zero professional knowledge and due to how restricted in-person seems had been in 2023
1:06
: Prospect week has been superior, thanks for capping it off with this chat. Out of curiosity, how typically do you end up writing up a man that neither you or Tess have seen your self? Simply going purely off what different colleagues within the {industry} have on them.
1:06
: by no means ever
1:08
: there are guys who i haven’t seen in individual however, at worst, I’m doing a ton of movie examine and have knowledge to formulate my very own opinion
1:08
: Ideas on the hitter with the very best title within the minors? He crushed it final yr with Ok enhancements upon promotion, however clearly 1B hurts his list-ability.
1:08
: you nailed it, simply suppose the efficiency is somewhat shy of prime 15 at 1B as a result of it’s 1B.
1:08
: How large of swing by way of worth is Austin Wells defensive place?
1:10
: huge. Jonah Heim and Edward Olivares had the identical wRC+ final yr.
1:10
: How would you may have graded Brandon Belt’s energy developing? Clearly the entire bundle, with wonderful on-base, above common protection, and playable hit device was sufficient to profile as an above common 1B, however he by no means hit for large energy
1:11
: Dayum, you’re hitting me with a throwback. maintain please…
1:11
: I used to be just a few months shy of turning 22
1:12
: What are you emotions on Brandon Crawford? Most individuals have him ranked however you didn’t.
General, do you see the Phillies as having a corporation that’s trending in the best route?
1:13
: Justin Crawford (no worries, all of us brainfart) has a full report on the Phils listing. Simply not sufficient energy, no present MLB hitter hits the ball on the bottom as a lot as he does. wants adjustment fairly badly, imo.
1:13
: Mets prospects are quick (Gilbert 5’9″, Jett 5’6″, Acuña 5’8″). Only a coincidence or is that this reflective of some organizational philosophy (clearly not re: top particularly, however maybe re: instruments/profile/flooring/ceiling that shorter prospects are likely to have, if such stuff may even be generalized throughout top)
1:14
: good catch. I do suppose lever size is a trait groups care about and might need to do with stability of the hit device. The Grizzlies appear to take guys undervalued as a consequence of lack of size within the NBA, too. Bane, Tillman, Roddy, Brooks, and many others.
1:14
: Was somewhat shocked to see Luis Morales leap into the High 100 so early. Do you suppose he’s a quick mover from right here to the majors?
1:14
: Positively not. Prototype pitcher’s physique and elite arm pace, purely a ceiling-driven embrace.
1:15
: What’s probably the most shocking {industry} suggestions you obtained in your prime 101 this season?
1:15
: had too few inside jokes
1:15
: Has there ever been a disparity between your listing and the ZIPs listing that has precipitated you to return and reevaluate a prospect?
1:17
: Sure, Danny sends me zips just a few days forward so i can double verify some guys. This yr it was Danny de Andrade, who I felt snug shifting on from shortly from a prime 100 standpoint, nonetheless a good prospect who’ll be on their workforce listing
1:17
: Interested in Termarr’s path, what do it’s essential see from him in 2024 to maneuver him again up the lists?
1:17
: Tess-driven stuff job there. Mucho energy and elevate, may have uncommon 2B pop regardless of flawed hit device. Gonna Ok a ton.
1:17
: Who’s the subsequent unheralded Yankee arm that turns into a stud reliever for them in 24?
1:18
: Take your choose of the DSL arms on their listing, Arias, and many others.
1:18
: What does Chandler Simpson have to do that yr to start out making his method onto prospect lists. .330 OBP, 50 SB, good CF protection seems extra like a certainty than a risk.
1:18
: Def a workforce listing man already. High 100? IDK, is Myles Straw figuring out gangbusters?
1:18
: I’m loopy about this Wyatt Langford, some freaky dominant numbers right here. What retains him out of the #1 spots?
1:19
: Could be a DH
1:19
: To what proportion of those questions may you simply reply “Learn the article, dingus”?
1:19
: The proportion has lowered since we began chatting
1:19
: actually this yr it’s most likely solely like 10%
1:19
: Of the blokes on the highest 100 who’ve but to play within the MLB but, who’s most definitely to open up on the MLB roster and have a profitable season?
1:20
: I gained’t depend Chourio, both (nevertheless it’s most likely him)…
1:21
: saying Colt Keith can be kinda dishonest…
1:21
: How about Jairo Iriarte?
1:21
: That is each a real-life and fantasy-driven query. With the evolution of the SP function, I discover it more and more tough to gauge worth. Simply by way of the way you strategy rankings, each worth/slotting, has it affected you and Tess’ valuations? In that case, what has it modified?
1:24
: For positive. I’ve flattened their curve, so to talk. Fewer workhorse SPs producing WAR worth by way of innings quantity, extra innings to go round means extra 40/40+ sorts who work in bulk aid, or who it’s essential get key outs within the center innings. For fantasy I don’t envy you as a result of it’s extra about counting stats than expertise and also you’re additionally gauging workforce state of affairs. Within the one league I’m in (dynasty sim) I actually solely draft horny arms when the worth feels too good to move up, I’m extra on secure performers and paths to alternative than upside more often than not
1:24
: nice query btw
1:25
: Have you ever heard of or seen Kevin Watson Jr.? Lesser identified outfield/catching prospect within the low minors of the Angels org. In that case, would love any notes you may have
1:26
: In fact, that man’s just like the mayor of the IE. Had a bobblehead evening final yr, didn’t he? Lefty-hitting org man with enjoyable defensive versatility.
1:26
: Along with all of the relocation stuff for the A’s, they’ve actually gotten screwed a bit with the draft lottery. Sixth choose in a draft that had 5 “first general” sorts in most years. Now fourth in a weak draft. And if I’m studying the CBA accurately, they will’t choose prime 10 subsequent yr no matter how unhealthy they’re. Even when I stick to them to Vegas, is there any hope?
1:28
: Bro, it’s a tragic state of affairs. The individuals who work for that org within the entrance workplace, dev and scouting, in addition to the gamers themselves, all deserve higher. What should it’s wish to be Tyler Soderstrom or Gelof proper now and know you’re going to spend the subsequent couple of years grinding for its personal sake. It could possibly be career-altering for his or her younger gamers to be in such a bizarre, awkward bind like that and try to encourage eacother simply because.
1:28
: Graham Pauley getting reps at 1B and LF–how satisfactory would the glove should be in these spots for the bat to play as a median starter?
1:28
: Possibly not a median starter (you’re speaking like fifteenth greatest man at LF/1B, that’s a extremely good participant) however positively higher than their options.
1:29
: You’re an growth workforce and you’ll steal all of the Yankees within the prime 100 or all of the RedSox. Which group are you taking?
1:29
: hmmmmmmm BoSox
1:30
: Talking of ZiPS, Fabian was fairly excessive there, however the Ok% was fairly horrid as soon as he obtained to AA. What number of prospects Ok that a lot, that determine it out at that stage? Steep hill to climb, no?
1:30
: Sure and did movie work on his protection, which isn’t CF match for me
1:30
: Sebastian Walcott’s report fascinates me. Excessive energy potential with weak hit device at a premium defensive place. Is that this Joey Gallo at shortstop if all the things breaks proper?
1:32
: Javy Baez if all the things breaks proper. Mark Reynolds is extra center of the road consequence
1:32
: ideas on brice matthews changing bregman at third? individuals on the astros subreddit appear to suppose that’s the long run however primarily based in your picks to click on writeup he appears far too uncooked for that form of timeline
1:33
: agree with you greater than the redditors. He’s SO uncooked. Tremendous gifted, although. Would count on a decrease burn. However hey, George Springer was additionally a gifted mess when he was drafted…
1:33
: so was derek fisher
1:34
: Hello Eric: you’ve beforehand talked about that this yr’s listing is shorter as a consequence of a smaller pool of high-end prospect expertise. Do you see this as short-term or do you count on the high-end prospect expertise pool to stay comparatively small going ahead?
1:34
: Little little bit of each. I believe this can be a down yr but additionally suppose the post-covid guidelines round rookie eligibility make it simpler to graduate off the lists.
1:35
: Roki Sasaki would rank prime 3 if he had been on the listing?
1:35
: 2-4 vary, yeah
1:35
: Thanks for all of the work. Rafaela vs PCA for defence solely?
1:35
: man that’s soooo powerful. Gimme Rafaela as a result of he can play the INF too
1:36
: What’s your prediction for the subsequent wave in analytics?
1:38
: It’s already underway throughout a variety of the league, however: quantifying the best way the physique strikes in actual time. Mapping patterns of motion by way of graph, assessing flexibility by way of angles of the hips and shoulders and utilizing it each as an eval device and to make MLB changes in-game
1:39
: I additionally marvel what a number of years of the mix will yield by way of the best way these evaluation correlate or not with professional success.
1:39
: No query, simply wished to say prospect week guidelines. There’s a lot wonderful content material. I particularly love the Successfully Wild appearances. Thanks for all the laborious work!
1:39
: gracias, it looks like a variety of people take heed to EW
1:39
: Not a prime 100 guys, however I’ve heard tremendous disparate studies on Ricardo Cabrera. Some had him as a legit plus runner final yr on the advanced and now I’m seeing others reporting that his physique has backed up considerably to the purpose the place he might have to maneuver to 1B finally. Have you ever gotten any seems at him lately?
1:40
: Tremendous tough take a look at SS, can barely throw the ball to first base precisely. Positively gonna tumble down the defensive spectrum, hit knowledge is absolutely sturdy.
1:40
: Any notes but on Tzu-Chen Sha?
1:40
: OMG sure, nerd
1:42
: sneaky 90-92, curveball command and depth, changeup seemed fairly good within the fall, too. backend sort
1:42
: Hello Eric, Wyatt Langford’s leap over the three guys drafted above him is tremendous attention-grabbing to me. What did he present in these previous couple of months post-draft that the scouts weren’t seeing? Looks as if the consensus on his “rank” in that class shifted in a single day
1:42
: Turning on the ball with energy method higher than simply about every other prime prospect
1:43
: Completely cleansing out velo round his palms, the place Crews Chourio and Cami all can get beat
1:43
: Can Rodney Inexperienced play CF?
1:44
: That is an OF at Cal. Not for me. Robust profile in a nook, prob not sufficient contact. Love the ability, although.
1:44
: I ponder your ideas on Welbyn Francisca? You had him as a 70 grade hit in 2023, his debut went effectively, and I heard that he’s now 5’11’’ 185-ish. Any likelihood he pops?
1:44
: I don’t actually suppose Chayce McDermott has carried out sufficient to be a starter, however there have been some indicators late. Nonetheless a MIRP/SIRP for you? Or do you suppose there’s “extra” that might get him a spot within the rotation.
1:45
: of the blokes with aid threat in that 45 FV space he’s the one I believe has the very best likelihood to iron issues out. he’s so free and lengthy and athletic…gonna be an impression arm of some form.
1:45
: Are dodgers prospects probably the most overrated (industry-wide) as a consequence of perceived developmental benefits within the org?
1:45
: I do suppose the horny orgs get a bump, usually
1:45
: I learn that Matt Shaw had a 90% z-contact fee and premium EV final season. However his future hit device grade is simply a 50 and future energy is graded as a 55. Did I get unhealthy data on his contact charges or is Fangraphs being conservative on his projections?
1:46
: I’m being considerably conservative as a result of his swing is kinda bizarre trying, and i believe the chase will finally impression his hit device
1:47
: Did you contemplate together with Yohandy Morales in your “Picks to Click on for 2025” article? And if that’s the case, was there a particular purpose you’ve soured on him because the 2023 draft? Or was he ignored/there simply wasn’t sufficient house to say him in that article?
1:47
: Was actually excessive on him pre-draft, went later than i believed, whole incapacity to drag the ball is considerably regarding so if I needed to choose a purpose that’d be it
1:48
: Is it simply me or did the 2023 class kick ass throughout their professional debuts? Faculty and HS esp up prime…I’m loopy about Langford and Jenkins now and even past it looks like a banner draft
1:48
: they kicked ass
1:48
: what goes on into the numerous variations, once they occur, between dash pace (78th percentile) and run grade (45/40) for guys like volpe? how can we determine candidates to outperform run grades?
1:50
: I don’t suppose dash pace is an effective way to eval pace. Or moderately, it’s much less helpful than a participant’s typical run time in my view. Dash pace measures pace of their quickest one-second window of working. House-to-first instances incorporate acceleration and lengthy pace, in addition to a measure of the occasion wherein pace makes the most important distinction (out vs secure at 1B).
1:50
: How typically do you get an opportunity to observe Worldwide or Japanese League video games in individual? Do you may have video sources in lieu of seeing them on the park?
1:52
: I’ll go dwelling to PA for per week or two each summer time and base myself out of Catty, get like 10 video games or one thing like that. It’s not excellent, I’d like to have a second full time author who in a geographically totally different spot than I’m in however FG is a small op. Synergy is an unimaginable device
1:52
: Nice work, Eric! In your EW podcast look you talked about pitchers having the perfect body being one thing you checked out for prospect analysis. What’s the preferrred physique measurement for a SP these days? Has it modified in any respect?
1:53
: 6ft3 or so, broad shoulders, flat again tapering all the way down to a excessive waist. low-to-the-ground athletcism with bend, energy, steadiness within the decrease physique, free arm motion
1:53
: I believe groups are extra open to quick king pitchers due to strategy angle issues
1:53
: What/Who’re you most trying ahead to watching in FL and AZ as soon as the pretend video games get going?
1:54
: I believe each Central divisions could possibly be a variety of enjoyable.
1:54
: If Kevin Parada can’t keep behind the plate, does he nonetheless have worth as a nook OF/IB sort? Or is his offense not adequate?
1:54
: (cringes) seemed substandard throughout the board final yr, my dude
1:55
: Is there a prospect archetype you’ve change into considerably larger or decrease on during the last a number of years?
1:55
: Flawed nook bats when the ability is a 70 or higher
1:57
: Lamonte wade is projected to complete w/ 6.7 struggle by means of finish of workforce management. is that not a 50?
1:57
: Nah, 2 annual WAR (so 12 give or take) is my barometer for a 50
1:58
: I’ve seen a number of feedback lately (from each writers and readers) asserting that scouting/prospecting is general far more correct now than it was even 5 or 10 years in the past, partially as a consequence of all of this newly obtainable knowledge within the minors and school. What’s your tackle that? Have you learnt anybody who’s tried to investigate this by means of time to see if we’re figuring out the best prospects earlier or getting extra correct with FV grades?
1:59
: Oh we’re method higher at this now, each by means of expertise and entry to studying instruments. I’d like to do retrospective evaluation however you find yourself denigrating your friends, I’m not impartial as a result of i write for one of many pubs value evaluating (i’d hope) and I’ve a lot work to do maintaining with the present goings on. I attempted to some self eval by way of my How’s My Driving piece final week
1:59
: couple extra, daddy’s battery is dying and his espresso is getting chilly
1:59
: The place would Soderstrom have slotted if he hadn’t surpassed rookie eligibility?
1:59
: I’d nonetheless stuff him. 70 energy
2:00
: 55 close to Kjerstad
2:00
: What can we count on to see from Justin Campbell this yr? Thanks in your time.
2:00
: Somebody with CLE advised me he’s good to go however I don’t know how he’ll look
2:00
: How a lot do you low cost HBP relative to BB for a batter? Looks as if some guys (e.g., Dalton Dashing has been HBP like 8% of the time since his final yr at Louisville) have this as a “ability” to some extent, nevertheless it’s most likely much less repeatable than BB ability?
2:02
: Agreed. Ty France will get hit by so many pitches as a result of he half-swings at pitches in on his palms that he has no enterprise swinging at and his again elbow will get lit up. It’s a constant a part of his sport nevertheless it’s created by a deficiency not a ability.
2:02
: I would like you to exit on a limb and provides me a intestine prediction for a way Daniel Espino’s profession will end up.
2:02
: Probably? Brendan McKay’s buddy.
2:02
: I got here dwelling giddy the final time i noticed him wholesome was a few of the greatest stuff i’ve ever seen in individual, ever ever. Shoulders, man.
2:03
: Is DJ Herz nonetheless anticipated to be only a reliever? Or did his efficiency in 2023 give any purpose to alter that impression?
2:03
: RP, imo
2:03
: Washington ought to give him each opp to start out, why not?
2:03
: I used to be a bit shocked to not see Joey Loperfido within the prime 100 given his proximity and flexibility. Does he look extra like a forty five, and if that’s the case, why?
2:04
: you may have it gauged proper, contact charges aren’t good however I actually like him, had him stuffed on HOU listing final yr and will probably be in an analogous spot as a march through workforce lists
2:04
: Whats my ceiling ?
2:04
: slick utility man
2:04
: Are Norby and Cowser sufficient to headline a commerce bundle for Stop? I believe if they will get it carried out with out shifting Holliday Mayo Kjerstad Westburg Basallo, giddy up!
2:04
: not for me, bro.
2:04
: Not even shut
2:04
: How is the final article coming as we speak totally different from the picks to click on article precisely? Appears like as we speak’s might embrace guys who you don’t count on to rise, however are simply exterior the highest 100 in the meanwhile? Possibly contains guys anticipated to graduate as effectively?
2:05
: It’s extra about guys you need to learn about proper now for a story purpose. It’s not titled effectively within the nav widget, which is all Megan’s fault. 🙂
2:05
: Quick access to the ACL, prolonged spring coaching, and the AFL looks like an enormous plus for dwelling right here. How does this impression your technique of evaluating prospects? Does it let you get extra and higher seems at gamers whose groups have complexes in Arizona? And do you’re feeling extra assured in these evals compared to prospects from groups who you would possibly solely see on video or 1-2 per yr (like those that prepare in Florida)?
2:06
: Sure to all, that is my full time job and I’m at just a few hundred video games a yr
2:06
: Was Zach Thornton at Mets most up-to-date instructs? Noticed him lots all through his newbie profession and he at all times comped to a Matt Strahm sort for me, curious to your ideas regardless of him not throwing knowledgeable inning but.
2:07
: No person did instructs in FL apart from TB and PIT. I like Thornton, lefty from GCU, upper-80s, free/athletic/projectable physique, breakong ball has form however wants energy…attention-grabbing dev school arm
2:08
: Okay everybody, after simply over 2 hrs i’m gonna name it. Because of the five hundred of you who’re nonetheless right here. Please contemplate a subscription to the location and thanks for all of your form phrases.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and at the moment lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Data Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work can be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
[ad_2]
Source link
