Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/25

Jay Jaffe: It’s a weak first-year slate that doesn’t have anyone who will get on this yr, and I see just one candidate — Cole Hamels — with any long-term potential

Jay Jaffe: In the meantime, Carlos Beltrán wants to achieve lower than 5% to achieve entry. My pofile of him must be going up shortly.

Jay Jaffe: In the meantime, I’ve profiled six of the eight candidates on the 2026 Up to date Baseball Period Committee poll, together with Fernando Valenzuela on Friday. Lengthy story quick, I feel the voters must be taking a look at him as a pioneer relatively than specializing in the good-not-great statistics  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: with that ample preamble out of the best way, on with the present.

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: 500 dwelling runs appears a whimsical purpose for Pete Alonso given the decline section gamers undergo of their 30s, however is {that a} magic quantity for the Corridor of Fame if the participant hasn’t been caught utilizing PEDS or experiencing some equal extenuating circumstance? Would a participant with that complete undoubtedly get in? Thanks, Jay

Jay Jaffe: (sorry, lunch arrived 20 minutes forward of schedule as I started typing this)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if 500 dwelling runs shall be seen as a particular in for a participant who wasn’t seen as an MVP contender sooner or later however I think it will be sufficient if he had a clear fame

Sirras: What participant that’s presently on the poll however unlikely to be voted into the Corridor of Fame did you particularly take pleasure in watching?

Jay Jaffe: Matt Kemp was actually a whole lot of enjoyable when he was an MVP contender chasing a 40-40 season. Edwin Encarnación’s homers tended to be spectacular ones. And I’ll all the time have a delicate spot for David Wright and want his physique hadn’t betrayed him

Jay Jaffe: Sushi: not the best meal to eat at my desk whereas chatting. Sorry people

Garrett: Ideas on a possible Triston Casas change of surroundings commerce to Washington? Surprise if there’s a deal to be made with Paul Toboni in cost and the Nats receiving calls on MacKenzie Gore.

Jay Jaffe: I feel if the Nationals are going to commerce Gore, they need to goal a place of larger defensive significance and any person who isn’t surrounded by query marks after accidents

not the lunch man: Clearly there are a whole lot of attention-grabbing issues about HoF season different than simply “who will get on this yr”, however from that perspective, does this really feel like a very boring one? It seems like we’ve got one extremely probably case and no person else anyplace shut

Jay Jaffe: It’s not the MOST thrilling cycle however right here are some things:

*Andruw Jones is lower than 9 factors away from 75%, and would have the biggest acquire from a poll debut of any Corridor of Famer
Chase Utley stands a very good probability of crossing the 50% threshold, a powerful indicator of future election
Utley’s coattails might assist candidates corresponding to Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia. I’m not notably eager on both however I see the arguments of their favor.  
Cole Hamels is a harbinger of beginning pitchers to come back and is healthier than lots of people keep in mind
What occurs with Félix Hernández after a stronger-than-expected debut?

Tom M: Jeff Passan mentioned Pirates have been runner up for Josh Naylor at ~$80M, and are in on Schwarber.  What’s you tackle this?

Jay Jaffe: They’re going to maintain Davy Andrews busy together with his We Tried Tracker

Mr. Jones And Me: Andrew Jones might get on this yr…or he might stay considerably stalled out…any sense of momentum on Jones’s half? If he doesn’t make it in by way of the Author’s Poll, I think about a Vet Committee staffed with Chipper, McGriff, Bobby Cox, Glavine, and so on. can be more than pleased to get him in (truthful or in any other case), however nonetheless, curious to me that he’s more durable for voters to wrap their heads round than the Wagners and Heltons of the world.

Mr. Jones And Me: (Past the low common, fall-off publish age 30, home violence, and so on. – ALL OF THAT ASIDE)

Jay Jaffe: I feel the large factor is that his excessive JAWS standing is pushed by being the profession chief in fielding runs (+235, to go together with 10 Gold Gloves). Persons are inherently suspicious of the accuracy of defensive metrics and Gold Gloves and I can’t say I blame them. His momentum has slowed; he’s solely gained 8 factors within the final two cycles, so perhaps a few of that different baggage that you just wave off is catching up or is insurmountable for some voters. I do suppose he’ll get in, however perhaps not this yr.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve struggled with all of that myself, actually, however I’ve voted for him every time (since 2021)

CoriolesEffect: After the large 3+1 of Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander and Greinke, who’s subsequent for you when it comes to SPs with a aggressive Corridor shot? Has Sale handed Cole?

Jay Jaffe: Sale has handed Hamels when it comes to JAWS however I hope we don’t have to attend for his eligibility earlier than we get one other enshrined starter. I’m actually undecided who can be subsequent if not Hamels, until the Up to date Committee takes up the case of Johan Santana in 2029.

You probably did it once more: Fairly certain Decide locked up the MVP primarily based on how he completed…. proper after you wrote in regards to the race.

Jay Jaffe: Ha, you will have some extent. On August 27 I wrote about Cal Raleigh’s case for MVP (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cal-raleigh-has-set-a-record-and-leveled-t…) and from that night time onward, Decide hit… .374/.533/.798 (251 wRC+) with 13 homers in 137 PA. Raleigh hit .252/.389/.579 (167 wRC+) with 10 homers in 131 PA from that time, so … wow. I hadn’t realized the hole was that broad afterwards.

Jay Jaffe:

War2D2: Hello Jay! I used to be in a pleasant argument with my brother yesterday in regards to the HoF candidacies of Pettitte and Hamels. My private take was that Hamels deserves it greater than Pettitte, however I most likely wouldn’t vote for him. My brother took the other tack (actually solely as a result of we have been bored and wanted one thing to complain about). I do know you voted for Pettitte final time round—do you suppose he’s extra deserving than Hamels, about the identical, or much less?

Jay Jaffe: I really voted for Pettitte 2 years in the past (2024 poll) then changed him with Félix final yr. Proper now I lean Hamels, whose postseason credentials are strong if not as voluminous as Pettitte’s

Jay Jaffe: my hunch is since I’ve room this time round i’ll most likely vote each, and Félix, and I’ll take one other take a look at Buehrle

Jay Jaffe: OK, because of the Cloudfare mess earlier, which delayed our editorial pipeline, Beltrán is being held for tomorrow. I’ll have the Period Committee profiles of Bonds and Clemens Thursday and Friday, schedule-wise.

bringbackpologrounds: Rank the occasions that have been most important to the Dodgers turning into a juggernaut: 1. Guggenheim takes over 2. TV Deal 3. Mattingly dumped for Roberts 4. Shohei indicators

Jay Jaffe: I feel that the order you may have them in there — which is chronological — is definitely about proper. First, ditching McCourt for a well-capitalized proprietor who knew the way to use the Dodgers’ market to the franchise’s benefit, then scoring the huge TV deal to help that, then shoring up the dugout by ditching a supervisor who couldn’t work with a Twenty first-century entrance workplace, after which getting the most important free agent of all time.

Martel Gonzalez: Do you suppose groups are frightened about giving guys long run contracts with the lockout subsequent yr? Assuming the 27 season is canceled, gamers shall be an additional yr older than anticipated

Jay Jaffe: A) if there’s a lockout these gamers don’t receives a commission. B) it’s silly to imagine the 2027 season shall be outright cancelled. the groups and MLB have far an excessive amount of to lose to let that occur.

Jay Jaffe: C) these gamers below contract have been all the time going to become older.

Trevor: All these lockout articles at this time from outstanding reporters…. What number of video games do you suppose each side would realistically miss? A month? Entire season?

Jay Jaffe: are there lockout articles at this time? I haven’t seen any however I’ve been off of social media for a number of hours. Once more, I feel the homeowners have far an excessive amount of to lose to punt a complete season. Might they lose weeks? I suppose it’s conceivable, however i’ll put it as “lower than a month” most

Matt Kory: Hey Jay! Hope all is nicely! What’s one of the best beer you’ve had lately? Cheers!

Jay Jaffe: Matty! Very long time no see on the socials. I’ve sadly gotten lazy about logging my beer picks however I used to be blown away by Treehouse Julius — which i’d solely had as soon as earlier than, again in 2017 — after I purchased some again in July whereas on Cape Cod. extra lately, getting reacquainted with previous pal Deschutes Black Butte Porter, which I had by no means seen earlier than outdoors of a single now-defunct bar in NYC, has been a deal with.

Jackson: If Schwarber and Realmuto don’t find yourself again in Philly, the place do you see them going?

Jay Jaffe: A Schwarber-Cubs reunion wouldn’t shock me. If Realmuto leaves, I’m going to guess Padres since their catching has been dreadful recently.

Phil: Who’s Jarren Duran, to you? I’m very torn, as a Pink Sox fan listening to these rumors. I’m not satisfied he’s homophobic, for what that’s price–I feel he realized one thing from all of that. And he’s an enchanting man. However I’m in no way certain how good he actually is, baseballwise.

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know, besides that his fluctuations make him laborious to pin down even when I put aside the Different Stuff. A few of which may be as a consequence of Fenway Park, the place it’s actually robust to get a learn on outfield defensive metrics. To me Duran appears to be a man who’s most likely able to manning middle with above-average offense for the place for a few years, however might not have the ability to stay a big plus in a nook. That’s nonetheless a 3-4 win participant for the following few years however not any person i’d break the financial institution or tear up my roster for.

I do nonetheless have bother getting previous the slur, however I additionally know Duran has had some fairly critical psychological well being struggles as nicely, together with a suicide try. I hope he’s bought a very good help system in place, greater than something.

MikeD: It’s a skinny poll, however relying in your views concerning PED gamers, I can see probably 9 future HOFers. Am I loopy?

Jay Jaffe: even when I rely A-Rod and Manny, who aren’t getting in by way of the writers and possibly not the committees until Bonds and Clemens go first (ha!) I can’t get to 9. Beltrán, Jones, Utley… then a whole lot of others whose paths to Cooperstown are something however clear, no matter your or my analysis of them

Jeremy: There are some gamers for whom the notion appears to essentially change between the time they retire and their time on the BBWAA poll. Gamers who weren’t extensively seen as HoF candidates once they have been lively, who finally get elected. And conversely, gamers who have been seen as critical candidates once they have been lively, who by no means sniff election. Are they any generalities about such instances? Do they principally come up when somebody retires simply earlier than massive modifications in how the sport is performed? Are they principally gamers who have been under- or over-appreciated when lively as a result of superior stats favored them higher than conventional counting stats?

Jay Jaffe: The generality is one thing you touched upon: occasions change. The methods through which we view gamers each inside the business and as followers have been shaken up, with superior statistics an enormous driver of that. With the permeation of analytics in entrance workplaces, participant paths are extra malleable than ever as nicely, so we get rigorously calibrated swing modifications and pitch growth. We’ve additionally bought workload modifications which have had a big impact on pitching, which has spilled over into hitter technique (swing for the fences extra, and so on).

Jay Jaffe: The sport doesn’t keep in a single place for lengthy, for higher or worse.

TKDC: You’ve written a number of occasions criticizing the brand new committee rule that “bans” a participant “completely” if he fails to succeed in a sure threshold on two eras votes, nevertheless, how a lot inventory can you place in such a “everlasting ban” when there’s nothing in any respect protecting the Corridor of Fame deo

TKDC: simply deciding to reverse it?

Jay Jaffe: For certain, the Corridor has modified up the foundations concerning committees so many occasions throughout this millennium that issues don’t keep in place lengthy, however it’s all the time more durable to alter course when there’s a rule in place. Some majority of the Corridor of Fame board needed this everlasting ban put into place, and so I don’t suppose it may be waved off as one thing prone to change rapidly, even when the format will get tweaked. And it’s price remembering that taking even 5-10 years to alter course may very well be the distinction between an honoree being alive or lifeless when he’s lastly elected.

2131, 1312: Will Paul Goldschmidt be seen as as near a shoo-in as Joey Votto appears to be? They’ve nearly similar profession values and counting stats (though I assume Goldy might nonetheless tack on a number of extra)

Jay Jaffe: their numbers will wind up wanting very comparable however Goldschmidt doesn’t have the identical degree of cultural cachet as Votto — no person’s doing oral histories of his quirks or writing about his presence on social media. Writers love Votto, and that’s going to speed up his progress the place Goldschmidt may take a number of years for voters to come back round.

Jeremy: It looks as if speedy modifications in beginning pitcher use are all the time going to depart guys like Hamels, Petite, Santana as controversial borderline instances. In comparison with many guys who got here only a bit earlier than them, they arrive up quick. However in comparison with many guys who got here only a bit after them, they’re going to finish up wanting superb. I actually admire your work on the way to alter our requirements to permit for modifications in how the sport is performed. However aren’t there are all the time going to be robust calls related to gamers who performed proper in the midst of a time of quickly altering requirements?

Jay Jaffe: it’s an ongoing problem, and one actual drawback is that as careers like Hamels’ being among the many finest, we don’t have a straightforward mechanism to return and reward guys like Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Saberhagen et al who have been nearly as good or higher however couldn’t measure as much as the 300-win guys who preceded them, and who symbolize the actual anomaly in post-expansion baseball.

RallyGuy: Are the Yankees considerably screwed if Trent Grisham takes the QO this afternoon?

Jay Jaffe: no, as a result of a one-year deal might be a greater end result for them than re-signing him to a 4- or 5-year deal the place he’s extra prone to decline and require a transfer to a nook.

Kip: Ought to ATL be hyper aggressive in free company this yr? Their window seems to be closing after 2028: Acuna shall be a free agent; Chris Sale shall be retired by then; Ozzie will most likely be out of baseball; Olson and Riley shall be coming into their decline section.

Jay Jaffe: yeah I feel this can be a massive winter for them, particularly for fortifying their rotation.

Jerry: Uber Eats or DoorDash?

Jay Jaffe: Seamless

Nico’s Nook: You appear fairly optimistic about Beltran.  Is the Astros factor his greatest hurdle?  Is it the truth that his stats are so broad?  Competitors at a troublesome place?  Performed for too many groups?

Jay Jaffe: sure, the sign-stealing factor. His numbers are very robust — high 10 in JAWS with very comparable counting stats (however higher OBP and positional adjustment) to Andre Dawson.

Mr. T: With higher advocacy would Ray Lankford have had a shot on the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: No. The man had 38.2 profession WAR and 1,561 hits. That’s an apparent non-Corridor of Famer.

2131, 1312: Would you rank Hamels above Mark Buehrle? and which ones will earn extra votes?

Jay Jaffe: Sure, I feel so and I think the voters will see it that means too, if not in 2026 then finally. Hamels was extra precious on a per-inning foundation as a result of he missed extra bats, and he has a stronger postseason resumé as nicely.

Edna Krabapple: Was your level that guys like Shin Soo Choo advantage induction primarily based on being the primary [country]-born participant, or simply that they need to be thought of/acknowledged by some means for that?

Jay Jaffe: acknowledged. For dozens of gamers, the respect is simply getting on the poll, and he deserves that due to his stateside accomplishments and the importance of his path to the majors as the primary Korea-born participant.

Jay Jaffe: guys like which have a big impact in rising the sport internationally.

Mike Teevee: Appears loopy to me that Lee Smith wanted the Eras committee to get in.  What was the meat in opposition to him amongst writers?

Jay Jaffe: Smith debuted with 42.3% and by yr 10 had solely elevated that to 50.6% — after which Bonds, Clemens et al confirmed up and started overshadowing all people on the poll. I feel the large problem is that he wasn’t seen because the epitome of dominance the best way an Eckersley, Gossage, or Rivera have been, even whereas as soon as proudly owning the saves file.

WinTwins0410: Jay, two questions: 1) I do know we don’t know the identities of the committee members but, however doesn’t it actually look like (and also you’ve successfully written as a lot) that the one actually probably Period Committee contenders are Kent, Mattingly and Murphy this yr?  Assuming the Corridor acts because it has up to now, I simply don’t see them making a committee that will let in anybody related to PEDs.  We’ll know extra after we see the committee’s identification I understand, however it isn’t actually only a committee whose output shall be electing a number of of these three guys? After which 2) Ought to we be shocked that Schilling, who bought seven out of 16 votes final time, was omitted from this poll?  Appears that option to me.  I discover him to be exceedingly odious and wouldn’t vote for him, however nonetheless — I’m sort of shocked that he didn’t fee a spot on this poll, between the 7/16 votes final time and his earlier BBWAA totals. Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t fully rely out Sheffield, who has a believable anti-Bonds narrative with reference to his PED connection, or Valenzuela, whose standing as a pioneer might be his actual ticket in.

As for Schilling, the 5/16 rule (any candidate not getting 5 votes is ineligible to seem for the following cycle) appears at the least partially designed to stagger a larger-than-manageable group throughout a number of ballots. Someone needed to get bumped, and I’d wager Schilling’s open letter to the Corridor requesting that he be shielded from the writers’ poll did him no favors.

Lavatory: Why has Utley’s help been so tepid? He has a powerful statistical case, an ideal peak and a clear file. Looks like a straightforward sure to me

Jay Jaffe: We’re speaking a couple of high-peak, short-career man who bought screwed out of awards and whose defensive metrics are doing so much to drive his case. I don’t see 39.8% after two cycles as tepid in any respect, particularly when stepping into the low 40s is mostly a harbinger of future election.

Visitor: not together with Alomar, that man doesn’t rely

Visitor: do you suppose Delgado will get in simply primarily based on the very fact we’ve got 0 Jays within the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: whoops reversed the order of these two, and no, that’s not going to drive voters to decide on Delgado.

2131, 1312: Do you suppose Gerrit Cole might find yourself attending to 200 wins (he’s at 153 and coming into age 35)? and by the point he’s on the poll would anyone care?

Jay Jaffe: I feel he can nonetheless attain 200, and it will likely be an enormous deal if he does, so far as HOF stuff, as a result of he’s checked many of the different containers already.

12 to six: admittedly “problem” trades are fairly uncommon…that mentioned, sal perez is 35; would one thing like speeding and a secondary prospect for makiel garcia make sense?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see it taking place. The Dodgers love Max Muncy, who’s comparatively cheap, and so they’re in no hurry to maneuver Dashing.

Nick Stone: You referenced Rollins WRT to Utley. Are you involved that his superficially stronger case may damage Utley’s?

Jay Jaffe: Hey Nick! I feel it’s the opposite means round. If Utley is getting help, perhaps we should take one other take a look at Rollins, who has larger counting stats, extra {hardware}, and was thought to be the chief of these groups.

War2D2: I simply noticed a publish from a author saying they reached the tip of their “10-year HoF voting eligibility.” When did they add a voter age-out clause?

Jay Jaffe: In 2015, the Corridor introduced a call to sundown voters greater than 10 years faraway from lively protection. Between that rule, media consolidation and job losses, the citizens has been lowered by about 1/3 relative to its peak circa 2011.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, that’s all of the pitches I’ve on this elbow this week. Thanks a lot for stopping by. undecided but if I’ll do that subsequent week because of the vacation — if not, take pleasure in Thanksgiving and know that I and the remainder of my colleagues right here at FanGraphs are all the time grateful in your help.