In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a gaggle of high-profile free brokers nonetheless accessible this offseason. They’re all represented by the identical company. Just a few folks have pointed this out. There have been 4 of them, and with Cody Bellinger’s new cope with the Cubs, there at the moment are three. (Though J.D. Martinez nonetheless might be included to make it a quartet.) It’s garnered some delicate consideration across the baseball world.
A lot focus has been positioned on the “Boras 4” — and never only for the cringe nickname — that it’s overshadowed the truth that the free agent market nonetheless has a handful of excellent, high quality huge leaguers who will help groups. None rejected a qualifying supply. None are on the lookout for nine-figure offers. None would require a workforce to commit cash into the 2028 season or past.
Arguably most distinguished among the many remaining “second tier” of the free agent market at this juncture of the offseason is right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The 32-year-old righty is recent off a career-high 153 innings in what was solely his second full season as a starter after a six-year run within the Cincinnati bullpen.
Lorenzen isn’t an ace, however he began 25 video games final 12 months (plus 4 reduction appearances) and made the All-Star workforce after a powerful first half of the season with the Tigers. A part of his choice to the Midsummer Traditional was by default — each workforce wants an All-Star consultant, and the Tigers didn’t have many candidates — however that shouldn’t be used to downplay the energy of Lorenzen’s first few months of the season.
Heading into the All-Star Sport, Lorenzen was sporting a stable however unspectacular 4.03 ERA in 87 innings. He’d began 15 video games, fanned 19% of his opponents and issued walks at a tidy 5.7% clip. On a one-year, $8.5MM contract, he was offering nice worth. Lorenzen pitched two-third of an inning within the All-Star Sport, after which got here roaring out of the second-half gates in what wound up being his finest stretch of the season. The correct-hander completed his first half with 5 shutout frames and started the second half with one other 13 2/3 scoreless innings. By the point the Phillies traded for him within the run-up to the annual commerce deadline, Lorenzen was sitting on a 3.58 ERA and three.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings.
By now, most followers and readers are aware of Lorenzen’s first outings as a Phillie. He held the Marlins to a pair of runs via eight glorious innings in his workforce debut earlier than blanking the Nationals in a 124-pitch no-hitter throughout his first look pitching in entrance of Philly followers at Residents Financial institution Park. That pair of gems dropped his season ERA all the way in which to three.23. From July 6 via Aug. 9, Lorenzen pitched 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and 31-to-12 Ok/BB ratio.
And, simply as most readers have been doubtless already conscious of these heights, the next lows for Lorenzen have additionally been well-documented. In his followup to that no-hit gem, Lorenzen was rocked for six runs by that very same Nationals offense, lasting simply 3 1/3 innings. That commenced a calamitous stretch the place he was torched for 27 runs over his subsequent 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies have been at all times prone to transfer Lorenzen to the bullpen for the postseason, given his expertise within the position and the energy of the highest of their workers, however they took that step a number of weeks early.
Lorenzen completed out the 12 months with 4 shutout innings of reduction throughout three appearances, however that did little to restore the harm of his disastrous late-August meltdown. He completed the season with a 4.18 ERA (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA), 17.8% strikeout charge, 7.5% stroll charge, 41% grounder charge and 1.18 HR/9 — stable manufacturing for a fourth starter however nowhere close to as attractive as his numbers seemed with simply six weeks to go within the season.
It’s value questioning the extent to which Lorenzen merely wore down. He pitched solely 110 1/3 innings the 12 months prior between the massive leagues and a minor league rehab stint with the Angels. He didn’t pitch greater than 85 innings in a season from 2016-21. Ramping as much as greater than 150 frames on the 12 months meant pushing his physique to ranges it hadn’t reached since his age-23 season again in 2015 — his rookie MLB marketing campaign and last season as a starter earlier than the Reds moved him to reduction.
Regardless of the shaky end, Lorenzen wound up with stable numbers on the season for a second straight 12 months. He’s but to make a full slate of 30+ begins in a season, however it’s not unreasonable to suppose he might achieve this in 2024-25 after constructing as much as 153 innings in 2023. And courting again to his return to a rotation in 2022, he’s pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball with a 19% strikeout charge, 8.8% stroll charge and 44.5% ground-ball charge. Lorenzen has averaged 94.6 mph on his heater, induced chases off the plate at a pleasant 32.6% clip and logged a ten.2% swinging-strike charge that’s not far beneath the 11.1% MLB common.
It’s not an ace profile by any means, however there are many huge league groups which can be making ready to trot out an unproven and/or below-average arm within the fourth or fifth spot of their rotation. Plugging a roughly league-average starter into a type of spots is sensible for quite a few golf equipment, and Lorenzen shouldn’t break the financial institution. He’s signed one-year offers for $6.75MM and $8.5MM over the previous two seasons. A comparatively modest two-year deal or perhaps a one-year deal at a bump over final 12 months’s wage doesn’t appear unreasonable.
For groups searching for rotation assist however unwilling/unable to spend on the vital ranges to signal Snell or Montgomery, a short-term cope with Lorenzen might make sense. That’s not true of each workforce, nonetheless. Let’s take a run via the league and search for some potential matches.
Groups with typically full rotations
Every of the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Royals and Tigers have a largely set rotation that includes 5 veterans and/or younger starters who’re locked into jobs and unlikely to be displaced by Lorenzen.
Kansas Metropolis and Detroit could be stretches to land on this group, however for the Royals, signing Lorenzen would imply pushing Jordan Lyles and his $8.5MM wage to the bullpen or reducing him unfastened. Primarily based on 2023 performances, they’d be higher for it, however that’s some huge cash for the Royals to eat. The Tigers, in the meantime, have one rotation spot up for grabs after signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this winter. They’d presumably like to go away that open for Matt Manning, Casey Mize and another younger arms to attempt to seize.
Prime luxurious payors who’d successfully owe double
Every of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are third-time luxurious tax payors who’d be taxed at a 110% charge for any further free agent signings. Even including Lorenzen on a modest one-year, $9MM deal would imply taking over $9.9MM of taxes and put the entire value of signing at $18.9MM. The Mets not too long ago noticed Kodai Senga go down with a shoulder damage, however shelling out almost $19MM for one 12 months of Lorenzen doesn’t look like a believable final result.
Rebuilding/non-competitive groups
The A’s, White Sox and Nationals are all at varied phases of a rebuilding effort. Any of the three might have been a match for Lorenzen earlier this offseason, however none appear doubtless now. The A’s signed Alex Wooden and traded for Ross Stripling, giving them 4 set starters and a deep inventory of unproven arms to vie for the fifth spot. The White Sox signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen along with buying Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster. Additionally they didn’t commerce Dylan Stop. Lorenzen could be an improve, however it looks as if they’ve added what they’re going so as to add. The Nationals haven’t completed something to bolster a sub-par rotation past signing Zach Davies to a minor league deal, however GM Mike Rizzo has successfully declared his workforce out of the marketplace for further huge league arms.
I’d argue that one other non-competitive membership, the Rockies, ought to completely be enthusiastic about signing Lorenzen, given the dearth of high quality innings amongst their group of incumbents. However Colorado has proven minimal curiosity in spending this offseason, and convincing any pitcher to take a short-term deal at Coors Discipline is a tall order.
Payroll and/or luxurious tax points
Cubs: The Cubs’ re-signing of Bellinger put them round $3MM shy of the bottom luxurious tax threshold. They wouldn’t face a significant penalty for signing Lorenzen — doubtless only a couple million {dollars} or so — however they’ve 4 locked-in starters and a deep assortment of arms vying for the fifth spot (e.g. Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Javier Assad) with high prospect Cade Horton not far behind. They’re not a terrific match.
Rangers: Regardless of final 12 months’s World Sequence win, Texas has had an unexpectedly quiet offseason amid uncertainty relating to the workforce’s tv broadcast outlook. The Rangers might clearly use one other arm with every of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle opening the season on the injured listing. The workforce appears content material to experience with an in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Grey, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford whereas ready on that veteran trio to return, although. GM Chris Younger stated earlier this month that he doesn’t foresee any additional additions of be aware.
Rays: The Rays ought to be buying on this tier for rotation assist, on condition that they’re counting on a pair of injury-prone veterans (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), a transformed reliever (Zack Littell) and a pair of gifted however unproven prospects (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) to open the season. Shane Baz, as soon as the sport’s high pitching prospect, will likely be again from 2022 Tommy John surgical procedure however on an innings restrict. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgical procedure) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgical procedure) will likely be again in some unspecified time in the future in 2024 however maybe not till the season’s second half. Attending to that time might be a problem with the Rays’ present group, however Tampa Bay’s projected $99MM Opening Day payroll is (one way or the other) a franchise file as it’s. There’s room to signal Lorenzen for 2 years on a backloaded deal (significantly if the Rays finally commerce Harold Ramirez and his $3.8MM wage), however their present monetary outlay makes them a attain — even when there’s a transparent want within the rotation.
Twins: The Twins have proven curiosity in Lorenzen however, just like the Rangers, have scaled again their spending amid TV income considerations. After buying Manuel Margot yesterday, president of baseball ops Derek Falvey urged he’s doubtless completed including to the massive league roster. The Twins have an honest beginning combine with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland as it’s. Signing Lorenzen would deepen the group, however an addition apparently isn’t seen as an crucial as long as the present group stays wholesome in camp.
Believable matches
Angels: Maybe their perspective towards Lorenzen is “been there, completed that,” however the Halos have loads of uncertainty with a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, rebound hopeful Tyler Anderson and the inexperienced Chase Silseth. They took a shot on Zach Plesac, however he has minor league choices remaining. Jose Suarez is another choice, however he’s additionally in want of a rebound. If proprietor Arte Moreno desires to proceed his resistance to long-term offers for pitchers, the Angels might convey Lorenzen again with out coming near their franchise-record for payroll or to the luxurious tax threshold.
Brewers: Gone are the times of the Brewers’ almost unequalled rotation depth. Freddy Peralta is again to steer a workers that additionally incorporates a re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea. Newcomers Jakob Junis and DL Corridor — acquired within the shock late-offseason commerce of Corbin Burnes — spherical issues out. Lefty Aaron Ashby will vie for a spot, and prospect Robert Gasser isn’t removed from the massive leagues himself. However the Brewers lack some certainty within the rotation and undertaking for a $109MM Opening Day payroll that’s modest even by their requirements.
D-backs: Arizona already signed Eduardo Rodriguez to affix Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt within the rotation. Between Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Tommy Henry and Corbin Martin, they’ve some depth for the fifth slot, however none of it’s confirmed. The Snakes’ $143MM payroll will already be a franchise file by about $11MM, but when there’s room for another addition, Lorenzen would solidify the ultimate rotation spot on a win-now membership that’s trying to observe up on final 12 months’s shock World Sequence bid.
Giants: The Giants’ rotation seemed like a large number even earlier than damage scares to presumptive fourth and fifth starters Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. San Francisco is reportedly nonetheless within the combine to signal Blake Snell, so there’s clearly cash left to spend. Proper now, they’ll observe ace Logan Webb with high prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, Winn and Beck — if the latter two are wholesome. (Winn not too long ago resumed throwing after experiencing nerve discomfort in his elbow; Beck left camp to be evaluated for a hand damage.) Frankly, they may stand so as to add considered one of Snell/Montgomery and Lorenzen.
Orioles: The acquisition of Burnes quelled some anxiousness from O’s followers after an in any other case silent offseason on the beginning pitching entrance, however there’s now concern elsewhere within the rotation, as No. 2 starter Kyle Bradish is making an attempt to rehab a UCL pressure in his pitching elbow. He wouldn’t be the primary pitcher to keep away from going underneath the knife after a UCL damage, however the overwhelming majority of such damage scares finish in surgical procedure. In the meantime, John Means is delayed and prone to open the season on the injured listing resulting from his personal elbow troubles. Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley create some depth on the 40-man, however the Orioles are a lot deeper in high-end place participant prospects than in pitchers. Baltimore has simply $1MM on the 2025 books and is projected for a mere $96MM payroll. They need to completely be on the lookout for an addition of some kind, they usually reportedly confirmed curiosity in Lorenzen earlier than buying Burnes.
Padres: One other workforce that’s reportedly proven curiosity in Lorenzen, the Padres have minimize payroll considerably and at the moment are greater than $20MM from the luxurious threshold and almost $100MM shy of their 2023 payroll. They solely have two clear-cut, confirmed starters: Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Michael King, acquired within the Juan Soto commerce, will fill the third spot within the rotation after a powerful exhibiting with the Yankees in 2023, however he’s by no means began greater than 9 video games in a giant league season. The opposite two spots are fully up for grabs amongst a gaggle of largely untested arms. There won’t be a clearer on-paper match, though…
Pirates: …if there’s one, it could be in Pittsburgh. The Bucs will roll with not too long ago prolonged Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales within the high spots of their rotation. Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgical procedure earlier this offseason. Final 12 months’s No. 1 choose, Paul Skenes, ought to shortly ascend to the massive leagues however that most likely received’t occur till this summer season. Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, Kyle Nicolas, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are all on the 40-man, however both lack MLB success or are (within the case of Falter and Contreras) wish to put an unsightly 2023 behind them. The Pirates have been speaking to the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and different starters, and GM Ben Cherington has been open about his want to additional add to the rotation.
Crimson Sox: To not be outdone of their want for rotation assist amid a shaky assortment of starters, Boston has been in a staring contest with Montgomery all winter. If he indicators elsewhere or they deem the worth too excessive, Lorenzen might simply match into the funds of a workforce that’s almost $60MM from its franchise file and never near the luxurious tax. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are set, however the mixture of Nick Pivetta (who misplaced his rotation spot for a time in ’23), Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock lacks reliability. The Sox want high quality innings, however possession clearly put its foot in its mouth earlier this offseason with a “full-throttle” proclamation that has been adopted up with payroll discount and modest additions on the margins of the roster.
—
If payroll weren’t an object, the Rays would be a part of the Padres, Pirates, Crimson Sox, Giants and Orioles because the clearest matches for a stable, if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation arm like Lorenzen. Funds very doubtless are a problem for Tampa Bay, nonetheless, however any of these 5 different golf equipment — arguably in that order — ought to be capable to discover room to lift their rotation’s flooring by plugging Lorenzen in at a value that received’t break the financial institution.
