Low and Away and James Wooden

Up and in, low and away. That’s the way you assault hitters. That’s at all times been the way you assault hitters. There are exceptions, in fact. Some hitters wrestle with low-inside pitches, in order that they see extra of them. Some hitters are so feeble that pitchers simply pump fastballs down the center and dare them to do their worst. Some pitchers simply throw their finest pitch and don’t hassle worrying in regards to the hitter in any respect. However more often than not, it’s up and in, low and away. Ben Clemens wrote a few model of this yesterday, in a chunk that targeted on the information behind why pitchers throw inside fastballs. And the hardest inside fastballs to hit are these thrown up and in.

Pitchers have been throwing exhausting stuff up and in for so long as they’ve been throwing exhausting stuff, however Statcast’s new bat monitoring information allowed us a brand new peek at why that’s such a profitable recreation plan. The warmth map for bat velocity under is additional purple as a result of it belongs to Aaron Choose, however insofar because the least purple spot is the high-inside strike, it would as nicely belong to any hitter.

It’s more durable to get your bat round up there. It requires a stiffer, extra rotational (versus linear) swing. You’ll be able to’t get your arms prolonged. You’ll be able to’t drop your bat head on the ball. Bust any person up and in with one thing exhausting, and so they’ll have a tricky time catching as much as it; now confirmed by science.

As a result of we’re not Ben Clemens, we’re going to concentrate on down and away right now, and we’re going to concentrate on batters. As you’ll be able to see from Choose’s warmth map, bat velocity tends to be slower down there too. We’re now not simply speaking about getting your arms prolonged. It’s important to modify your swing to succeed in pitches that far-off, bending and reaching, slowing down your bat as a result of the optimum contact level is deeper. If there’s one factor we’ve realized from bat monitoring information, it’s that these sorts of changes make you hemorrhage bat velocity. Low and away can be the place trickier pitches like offspeed and breaking balls have a tendency to finish up. No one is sweet in opposition to these pitches, and I do imply no person.

See the spot within the warmth map that claims 77.0 mph, contained in the strike zone, however on the outer third and within the backside third? Since 2008, 225 left-handed batters and 297 right-handed batters have seen no less than 500 pitches in that low-and-outside field. In keeping with Baseball Savant’s run values, not a type of gamers has a constructive run worth in opposition to these pitches. Not one! Each single participant has been under common in that exact field, and that’s not true of any of the opposite 12 bins. The 2 gamers who’ve come closest to breaking even on these low-and-outside strikes are Corridor of Famer David Ortiz, who has been price -0.08 runs per 100 pitches, and future Corridor of Famer Mike Trout, who has been price -0.4. It’s simply not doable to carry out nicely in opposition to that pitch (no less than not with out eschewing the remainder of the strike zone, however nobody would ever try this), even when you’re actually Mike Trout.

So we’ve established that the low-outside strike is tough to hit. It took 500 phrases, however we’re right here now. The warmth map under belongs to James Wooden, and it’s a part of the rationale we’re speaking about pitching folks low and away. The numbers on this warmth map present run worth per 100 pitches, and so they present why Wooden is the poster boy for problem down and away.

After a season and a half within the majors, Wooden is the proud proprietor of 4.6 WAR, a 125 wRC+, and one of the crucial explosive swings within the recreation. That’s superb. He’s simply 23 years outdated. He appears like he shall be nice for no less than one other decade. He’s additionally the proprietor of this significantly lopsided warmth map. He’s affected person to a fault, which implies that he’s wonderful on pitches outdoors the strike zone. He’s nice when he can get his lengthy arms prolonged or when he can drop his bat head on the ball. However throw him one thing, something down and away however nonetheless contained in the zone, and he turns right into a (very imposing) pumpkin.

Should you’re a daily FanGraphs reader or only a fan of the Nationals (or Padres), you’ve probably recognized the e book on Wooden since lengthy earlier than he really debuted in Washington. He’s actually huge. He hits the ball actually exhausting. He hits it on the bottom. He whiffs lots too. Main league pitchers knew the e book as nicely, and so they most undoubtedly noticed some earlier model of that warmth map the second the Nationals known as Wooden up in July 2024.

I can say that for sure as a result of although he was only a 21-year-old rookie, 24.2% of the pitches Wooden noticed had been situated in these three blue bins. Amongst gamers who noticed no less than 1,000 pitches, that was the very best fee in baseball (switching the facet of the plate round for right-handers, in fact). In 2025, that fee fell to 23.8% and Wooden fell to 3rd place, behind Dansby Swanson (24.5%) and Tommy Pham (24.2%). What these numbers imply is that from the second he debuted, pitchers have recognized that the one strategy to assault Wooden was to remain the hell away from his gigantic bat. Purpose for the surface nook, hold it low, and hope for one of the best.

In a slim sense, that technique has been wildly profitable, as these three blue bins can attest. In 2025, 457 gamers noticed no less than 100 pitches inside these bins. Wooden’s 50% swing fee ranked 376th, that means he took far more known as strikes than the typical participant. When he did swing, his 28.7% whiff fee was tied for 426th place, that means that he ended up with far more swinging strikes than the typical participant. When Wooden put the ball in play, he was extra profitable than the typical participant, due to course he was. Although that’s the spot the place he has his lowest bat velocity, lowest exit velocity, and lowest launch angle, he nonetheless hits the ball so exhausting that it may possibly’t assist however discover grass. He ran a .418 wOBACON on these pitches. However that’s not sufficient to mitigate all these additional strikes.

In a broader sense, that plan has its limits. Aiming for the nook in opposition to a participant as affected person as Wooden implies that while you miss, you’ve bought the next probability of lacking the zone solely, and Wooden is so affected person that he’ll make you pay for it. When you’re behind, it’s a must to hit the center of the zone. Extra importantly, that is one thing of a desperation transfer. For years now, the pattern throughout the league has been towards throwing the ball proper over the center and trusting your stuff to do the remainder. The concern of grooving a pitch to Wooden is driving pitchers towards an older, much less profitable recreation plan. Wooden is dangerous at dealing with that pitch, however so is each hitter on earth. He’s seeing so many pitches there as a result of in opposition to a hitter like him, all of the choices are suboptimal. Wooden might not get to the following stage as a hitter till he can discover a strategy to cowl extra of the strike zone, however he’s younger and he’s nonetheless studying. He might nicely get there. Within the meantime, he’s nonetheless putting concern into the hearts of pitchers, and so they’re doing their finest to keep away from him.