Luis Severino Units the Tone

There’s paint on the sector, bunting on the metal, and hoopla in our feels. It’s Opening Day little doubt. Nicely, the third one, at the very least.

Essentially the most iconic trapping of Opening Day is the fleet of wonderful beginning pitchers who take the mound. Every staff sends their finest, or at the very least, their healthiest. For some, it’s the reigning Cy Younger winner. For others, it’s a precocious prospect. These starters, true to their title, carry the burden of the brand new season of their shoulder.

Few carry a burden larger than Luis Severino’s.

The Athletics are on the cusp. They rank twentieth in FanGraphs Depth Charts projected WAR and enter Opening Day with a few 16% probability of creating the postseason, per our playoff odds. It appears unlikely that that is their yr, however they’re certainly younger and proficient and rising. It wouldn’t be too shocking in the event that they stayed within the playoff image effectively into September.

In the event that they do, it’ll be due to their lineup. It’s good. They completed tenth by wRC+ final yr and have returned largely the identical group. In his rookie season, Nick Kurtz made a case for being the sport’s subsequent nice slugger. Shea Langeliers completed with the second-highest wRC+ by a catcher at 131. Brent Rooker notched his third straight 30-plus house run season. Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom every performed effectively sufficient to earn early-career extensions, and Lawrence Butler obtained one the yr earlier than.

Our Depth Charts challenge the A’s batters 14th total by WAR, however they’re lower than a win from breaching the highest 10, proper in that subsequent tier behind the Dodgers and the handful of actually nice lineups all through baseball. It’s a playoff-worthy group.

The problem? The A’s are lopsided:

Their pitching is dangerous. They completed final yr within the backside 5 by WAR, and we challenge them no higher in 2026: Their starters ranked twenty fourth in our positional energy rankings, whereas their bullpen ranked twenty sixth. I don’t know that I’d name them horrible — they’re nonetheless a transparent rung or two above the Rockies — however there’s not a lot there to differentiate them.

To be truthful, it’s tough to challenge teams of pitchers over a season, as accidents and small samples spur attrition. The underside of the A’s workers doesn’t look a lot totally different than the underside of many staffs within the mushy center of our projections. I may completely purchase Luis Morales having a breakout season, similar to I may purchase Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale being respectable backend guys. And, , bullpens are bizarre, typically in ways in which works in your favor! Nonetheless, there isn’t somebody who’s an apparent candidate to put up above-average worth and carry this group to that subsequent, bare-minimum stage.

Besides perhaps Severino. He’s executed it earlier than.

Severino was as soon as an enormous deal, albeit practically a decade in the past. He was a extremely touted prospect, and a top-five pitcher by WAR in 2017 and 2018. He had the straightforward, basic arsenal of a man with large time stuff: a 98-mph four-seam fastball, a wipeout slider, and a changeup simply to maintain you sincere. No one threw more durable, and few struck out extra batters. In 2018, he was solely 24.

Then, as this stuff go, he obtained damage. Severino missed virtually all of 2019 with a shoulder harm. Then he missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 with Tommy John surgical procedure. He pitched fairly effectively for half a season in 2022 earlier than being sidelined with a lat pressure, then pitched fairly poorly for a half a season the next yr whereas coping with the lat pressure and an indirect pressure. He threw simply 209.1 innings over 5 years.

Severino signed a prove-it take care of the Mets earlier than the 2024 season, and he proved to be… effectively, adequate to signal a three-year take care of the A’s that December. It was a shocking transfer as a result of the A’s are notoriously stingy. However it was additionally sort of an ideal transfer as a result of the A’s wanted somebody who may doubtlessly be a frontline starter to guide the workers. And there simply aren’t many pitchers obtainable within the A’s worth vary who’ve confirmed able to posting five-win seasons, particularly ones keen to play in a minor league ballpark.

That minor league ballpark, in fact, was an enormous a part of Severino’s first season in Sacramento. He actually didn’t like pitching there, and he advised The Athletic as a lot in June.

“It’s not the identical ambiance. We don’t have a variety of followers. Our clubhouse is in left subject. So, once we play day video games, we’ve got to simply be within the solar. There’s no air-con there, too. It’s actually powerful.”

Now, I’m not going to name Severino a liar. I’m certain he actually didn’t like pitching in Sacramento. When he supplied that quote, he had a 6.79 ERA in 10 begins at house and a 3.04 ERA in eight begins on the street. That’s an enormous cut up! However Severino additionally had a 4.36 FIP at house and a 4.34 FIP on the street over the identical stretch — his basic capacity wasn’t a lot totally different. Because the season progressed, so did he; he posted a 4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 5 begins at house from July onward, in comparison with a 3.00 ERA and three.20 FIP on the street. I’m keen to chalk up a lot of Severino’s early-season house efficiency to poor luck: His .342 BABIP and 58.2% LOB price have been backside 5 amongst starters via June. That appeared to self-correct because the season wore on.

In different phrases, sure, Severino was usually worse at house, and we would count on him and the remainder of the Athletics’ workers to be worse whereas working towards what ended up being the fifth-highest park issue within the majors final yr. It’s a minor league park, it’s very heat, and the wind blows out — it isn’t simple to pitch there. However there’s perhaps an inclination to magnify the extremity of Sutter Well being Park. What we noticed in 2025 was nowhere near Coors Subject, and I feel I’d classify it as being extra of a nuisance, relatively than a barrier to a season of high quality pitching.

No, Severino’s merely respectable efficiency in 2025 was his personal doing. He posted the bottom strikeout (17.6%) and whiff (18.3%) charges of his profession. It’s a part of a years-long downward development in both class.

Why?

An excellent pitcher who declines after harm is usually coping with some form of velocity dip. That’s form of the case with Severino, but additionally not likely. Once more, he was as soon as the hardest-throwing beginning pitcher within the sport, averaging 97.6 mph on his four-seam fastball in 2018. He was right down to 96.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2025. That’s a significant distinction, however he nonetheless boasted one of many 15 quickest four-seamers in baseball final yr. In actual fact, Severino’s whiff price on the pitch jumped from 20.2% in 2018 to 21.9% in 2025 (although nonetheless shy of his 24.0% mark from 2017).

However he isn’t simply throwing four-seamers anymore:

Severino now has a up to date arsenal. He nonetheless throws a variety of fastballs, however a few of them at the moment are sinkers to righties and cutters to lefties. These are usually a bit slower. If we have a look at his common velocity on all fastballs, he was truly right down to 95.4 mph, or 2.4 mph decrease than 2018; his whole fastball whiff price final yr was simply 16.7%. Severino additionally ditched his sharp, biting slider in favor of a slower, looping sweeper. The pitch produced a mere 22.8% whiff price in 2025. It’s nonetheless a superb pitch total, and it does appear to supply poor contact (particularly popups and weak fly balls). However it’s simply not “2018 Luis Severino 37.6% whiff price” good.

Now, perhaps these tradeoffs are price it. It’s not completely truthful to check Severino in 2025 to himself from seven years in the past. It’s attainable that persevering with to throw the identical three-pitch combine wouldn’t have the identical impact as we speak because it did when he had that further, tip-top gear. However the sum whole of those modifications is a slower, extra contact-oriented strategy. Severino final yr struggled to get forward in counts and end off batters.

If that is who he’s going ahead, that’s high quality. He stays an average-ish pitcher price giving 30 begins a season to in nearly any rotation. Nonetheless, I can’t assist however really feel there’s room for one thing extra. He throws laborious, he has good command, and he’s nonetheless Luis Severino. He seemed electrical for the Dominican Republic on the World Baseball Basic, pumping upper-90s fastballs and dominating the fearsome Staff USA lineup.

What’s going to we get in 2026? Nicely, we’re about to seek out out. Severino will start his eleventh season within the majors Friday at age 32. The chances of him posting one other ace-level season are rising longer, however he wouldn’t be the primary and even probably the most unlikely pitcher to have a late-career resurgence. If he can discover that subsequent stage once more, the A’s are certain to observe. Such is the sweetness — and burden — of Opening Day.