After Saturday’s Remaining 4 delivered in spades, No. 1 seeds Florida and Houston are set to sq. off within the NCAA event’s nationwide championship recreation on Monday night time.
Florida overcame a nine-point first-half deficit to down Auburn with a dominant second half, whereas Houston pulled off a really inconceivable comeback within the ultimate eight minutes to knock off a Duke staff that entered the weekend because the overwhelming favourite to win all of it.
How They Received Right here
Houston
The place are you able to even begin with what transpired on Saturday night time? Down 59-45 with 8:34 remaining, the Coogs seemed useless.
Over the following eight minutes, Houston fought simply laborious sufficient to provide itself a puncher’s probability with below a minute to go. Should you may even name it that. Down 67-61 with 0:42 remaining, ESPN’s win likelihood calculator gave Houston a meager 7.7 % probability to tug of the comeback.
Then, all hell broke free. Houston’s full-court press despatched Duke right into a state of shell shock and the Coogs went on a go-ahead 7-0 run in 15 seconds to take a 68-67 on a pair of J’Wan Roberts free throws with 0:19 remaining.
Houston held Duke to a single made discipline objective within the final 10:31 of the sport. Six days earlier, it held Tennessee to simply 15 factors within the first half, an all-time low for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in NCAA event historical past. Protection wins championships and Houston has, bar none, the most effective protection in school basketball.
Kelvin Sampson is making his first look within the nationwide championship recreation in 32 seasons as a high-level Division I basketball coach. Sampson first introduced Oklahoma to the Remaining 4 in 2002, the place the Sooners misplaced within the semifinals as 7-point favorites in opposition to a No. 5 seed Indiana staff taking part in Cinderella. He returned 19 years later for the primary time with Houston in 2021, however the Coogs have been blown out by eventual champion Baylor.
When Sampson took over the Houston program in 2014, it was nationally irrelevant within the AAC and a shell of what it was within the Phi Slamma Jama days. There’s a video of Sampson strolling round campus shortly after his rent, exchanging fist bumps for guarantees from college students that they’d attend the basketball staff’s residence opener.
Simply over a decade later, Houston is the premier program within the Large 12 and taking part in in its first nationwide championship recreation since Hakeem Olajuwon fell brief in opposition to Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in 1984
Florida
Florida entered the season an entire afterthought in nationwide championship discussions. The Gators have been ranked twenty first within the preseason AP Ballot and entered the season with +6000 odds to win the nationwide championship, in the identical ballpark as Rutgers and Xavier groups that missed the NCAA Event totally.
39-year-old Florida coach Todd Golden has gone from ending below .500 in his maiden voyage with the Gators in 2022 to main this system to its third nationwide championship recreation look three seasons later. Golden additionally navigated the Gators by way of a traditionally loaded SEC event, a feat arguably as troublesome as successful the NCAA event this season, given how a lot of a gauntlet the convention was.
Walter Clayton Jr. has emerged because the star of this yr’s event, incomes rightful Kemba Walker comparisons after mentioning how Walker’s 2011 run with UConn impressed him.
Clayton scored 34 factors to guide Florida again from an eight-point halftime deficit in opposition to Auburn on Saturday. Clayton Jr. additionally scored 30 factors in Florida’s insane comeback in opposition to Texas Tech within the Elite 8, thus turning into the primary participant since Larry Hen in 1979 to attain 30+ factors in each the Elite 8 and the Remaining 4 (in accordance with ESPN Stats and Information).
Through @ESPNStatsInfo: Walter Clayton Jr. is the primary participant with back-to-back 30-point video games within the Elite Eight and nationwide semifinals since Larry Hen in 1979.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) April 6, 2025
Florida has proven all through the event you could by no means really matter them out. The Gators have been down 10 factors with simply over 5 minutes remaining in opposition to Texas Tech earlier than Clayton Jr., Thomas Haugh and Alijah Martin one way or the other led all of them the best way again.
The Gators seemed largely out of it within the first half of their Remaining 4 win over Auburn, however they have been utterly dominant within the second half. They outscored the Tigers, 41-27, within the body for what ended up being a six-point win.
Keys To The Sport
Florida
The Gators are going to wish Clayton Jr. to play just like the first-round NBA draft choose he’s hoping to be in April. The final two video games have confirmed that regardless of all the surrounding expertise, this staff goes as Clayton Jr. goes.
Houston confirmed it might probably deal with the nation’s highest-rated offense in Duke, holding the Blue Devils to simply 70 factors, so Florida’s No. 2 ranked offense isn’t going to overwhelm the Cougars. This recreation goes to return right down to a few-minute-long stretch within the second half, the place Clayton Jr. will both put the bow on his Kemba-like run or Houston will stifle him prefer it did Duke and Tennessee.
Houston
Cliche, however the Cougars must play their finest defensive recreation of the season. Whereas the Duke recreation proved they’ll suffocate the nation’s top-ranked offense, Duke doesn’t have a scorer as efficient as Clayton Jr. is, particularly within the largest moments. If Houston can maintain him from going one in every of his signature second-half runs, it has a fantastic probability of successful this factor.
Championship Sport Prediction
Duke might have gotten all of the hype because the traditionally nice staff going into this weekend, however the fact is Houston was all the time proper there with them in that regard. After Saturday’s win, the Cougars now have the next KenPom score than 26 of the final 27 nationwide champions and enter the nationwide championship recreation on an 18-game successful streak.
Florida’s lethargy at instances on this event has frightened me. The Gators have confirmed that no lead is secure in opposition to them, however Houston is a staff that may flip a few possessions and not using a basket right into a seven-minute scoring drought. I feel the Cougars maintain Clayton Jr. human for essentially the most half and win this one 75-70 or in that vary.
