No, James, Luis Arraez Shouldn’t Take Extra 3-1 Pitches

Final week, we obtained a mailbag query from James, whose glimpses of Luis Arraez throughout the World Baseball Basic left him in search of one bizarre trick to vault the three-time batting champion again as much as his earlier heights. I had a lot enjoyable answering the query that its phrase rely moved it out of mailbag territory (non-Jay Jaffe division, anyway) and into common article territory. The query was on the longer aspect, however right here’s an abridged model:

If [Arraez] might put on a ribbon on his wrist to discourage a foul hitting behavior, would he be capable of keep away from one thing that drags him down?

My first concept was swinging on 3-1 counts… If he spit on 3-1 pitches habitually, till opposing pitchers caught on, what proportion of them would have landed him on first? What impression would which have on his OPS & WAR, and the way would that impression his worth and employability?

Might there be different commonplace alternatives which may be equally exploited?

I notice James is asking for a extra particular reply right here, however I need to begin with the overview, as a result of at this level, I believe individuals might have forgotten that when upon a time, Arraez really had nice plate self-discipline. From 2019 to 2022 he ran a 24% chase price and a 9% stroll price. That stroll price was 5% greater than the league common. From 2023 to 2025, he had a 34% chase price and a 4% stroll price. That stroll price is now a staggering 45% beneath the league common! Over the identical interval, Arraez’s swing price on pitches contained in the zone fell from 65% to 62%. He wasn’t simply chasing extra; he was making worse swing choices throughout. That’s a whole lot of shifts within the flawed route, and though Arraez additionally minimize his strikeout price almost in half, his wRC+ dropped from 123 to 109.

As everyone knows, Arraez swings at every part as a result of there’s nothing he can’t hit, however that doesn’t imply it’s the precise name. When he places the ball in play, his wOBA is .343 on pitches within the zone and .311 on pitches outdoors it. It’d be tempting to make that wristband say, “JUST SWING AT STRIKES LIKE YOU USED TO, BUDDY.”

With that in thoughts, I began by heatmaps. I used to be interested in whether or not Arraez had gotten much less swing-happy in any specific a part of the zone. Was he simply making worse swing choices in a vacuum? Was he in search of one particular pitch extra typically? I did discover a notable shift. When you have a look at a heatmap of Arraez’s batting common in 2025, you’ll see that he was a lot better on pitches out over the plate than he was on inside pitches. Then I checked out Arraez’s heatmaps from earlier seasons. The Baseball Savant heatmaps beneath present Arraez’s BABIP. He was nice on the internal third in 2024, however that flipped in 2025.

The 2025 season was a whole about face. The heatmaps for his swing price present an analogous pattern; Arraez was much less more likely to swing at inside pitches final 12 months. He was worse everywhere in the zone, however the numbers are notably stark on the internal third. His swing price and hard-hit price dropped essentially the most, and when he put the ball in play, his batting common fell by greater than 200 factors!

It’s tempting to say that we should always put that on the wristband; inform Arraez to disregard the within pitch as a result of he’s so unhealthy with it. Nonetheless, I believe that might be a mistake. As just lately as 2024, he was nice at dealing with the within pitch. I believe the diminished swing price is telling, although it’s onerous to inform what got here first. Did Arraez carry out worse towards inside pitches as a result of he was making an attempt to swing at them much less, so when he did swing it was a mistake? Or did he minimize down his swing price towards inside pitches as a result of he was doing so badly towards them? Both approach, he clearly modified his method. It simply didn’t work. Seeing all that, I don’t assume no matter goes on Arraez’s wristband will essentially be a few specific portion of the strike zone.

With that out of the best way, I broke down Arraez’s 2025 swing charges relying on the rely, identical to James instructed. It was eye-opening. The rows are for balls, and the columns are for strikes.

It is a bit onerous to interpret, particularly as a result of everyone adjustments their method relying on the rely. To make it clearer, the subsequent desk takes Arraez’s swings price and reveals its percentile rank throughout the league, to mirror how he stacks up towards different batters. As you may see, he’s virtually all the time on the excessive finish of the spectrum. This desk accommodates 12 cells, and Arraez is within the prime or backside decile in 9 of them.

When Arraez doesn’t have any strikes on him, he’s one of many extra affected person hitters within the sport. He by no means swung as soon as at a 3-0 pitch. When he’s forward 3-1, he’s very almost essentially the most affected person hitter in your complete sport. So the wristband undoubtedly doesn’t have to remind him to put off the 3-1 pitch. He’s shedding approach too many 3-1 pitches! He’s additionally shedding the primary pitch approach an excessive amount of.

As quickly as Arraez will get a strike on him, although, he goes into swing-at-everything mode. Any time he has one or two strikes (besides in 3-1 counts), he swings over 68% of the time, greater than another certified participant in 2025. Someway he’s essentially the most affected person participant in baseball when it’s 3-0, and the least affected person participant in baseball when it’s 3-2.

Two apparent conclusions leap out from this desk. The primary is {that a} concern of strikeouts is holding Arraez again. He’s the most effective contact hitter within the sport. Nobody on earth must be extra comfy after they’re behind within the rely than Arraez. With one strike on him, he can afford to be choosier than anybody in baseball, as a result of he is aware of that even when he will get two strikes on him, he can nonetheless put the ball in play and keep away from a strikeout. Final 12 months, when he obtained to a two-strike rely, he struck out simply 7.4% of the time. Solely Steven Kwan was inside 10 proportion factors of him. He might have been so, a lot choosier and nonetheless run the bottom two-strike strikeout price within the sport.

The second conclusion is that Arraez is making an attempt to repair the issue, however he’s not going about it in the precise approach. His swing charges with no rely or when he’s forward are artificially low. He is aware of he must be extra affected person, so he simply waits and takes a strike, then flips the change. It looks as if a very disconnected, uncomfortable method. He can’t swing early as a result of he received’t see sufficient pitches, and he can’t take late as a result of he would possibly strike out. The result’s that Arraez ignores a whole lot of good pitches early within the rely and he chases a whole lot of unhealthy pitches later. It’s the worst of each worlds. His uncommon present for contact ought to give him extra choices, letting him choose a sport plan and keep on with it whatever the rely. Someway, it’s left him feeling extra constrained than another participant, letting the rely utterly dictate his method.

For that purpose, I believe that James is true concerning the wristband concept. Arraez is clearly getting suggestions about what he must do higher, but it surely’s not serving to him make good choices. It might be worsening his choices. So what can we placed on the wristband? Arraez must be prepared to take extra pitches when he’s behind within the rely – even when it means placing out a bit of bit extra – and he might stand to be extra aggressive when he’s forward. He must focus much less on contact and extra on attacking pitches that he can flip into his signature line drives. Perhaps you possibly can put “YOU CAN STRIKE OUT SOMETIMES” on a wristband, or “LINE DRIVE OR BUST!” You would strive telling Arraez that he will get to swing at two 0-0 pitches per sport and see what that does to his swing choices on the primary pitch. The very first thing I’d strive, although, is to get the constraints of the rely out of his head altogether. Every thing about these numbers says that worrying concerning the rely is hurting his swing choices, so strive placing “IGNORE THE COUNT” on a wristband and see what occurs. Perhaps it means he begins swinging on the first pitch in 85% of his plate appearances, by which case you want an entire new plan, but it surely’s value a shot.