The Nationals are coming into the third full season of their rebuild, and their lackluster offseason was emblematic of a crew extra centered on the long-term image than even feigning an try at competing in 2024.
Main League Signings
2024 spend: $9.25MMTotal spend: $9.25MM
Possibility Choices
Declined $3.3MM membership choice on CF Victor Robles (Robles was arbitration-eligible and stays with the crew after agreeing to a lower-cost one-year deal)
Trades and Waiver Claims
Chosen SS Nasim Nunez from the Marlins within the Rule 5 Draft
Notable Minor League Signings
Zach Davies, Eddie Rosario, Matt Barnes, Jesse Winker, Richard Bleier, Robert Gsellman, Juan Yepez, Derek Legislation, Luke Farrell, Stephen Nogosek, Travis Blankenhorn, Spenser Watkins, T.J. Zeuch
Notable Losses
The Nationals misplaced 91 video games final season and entered the offseason with a reasonably modest $110MM dedicated to the 2024 roster. With ample room so as to add beginning pitching and gamers at numerous positions across the diamond, the stage set for some offseason dealings. Common supervisor Mike Rizzo appeared to counsel as a lot early eventually 12 months’s Winter Conferences.
“We’ve bought a number of holes to fill,” the veteran basic supervisor stated. “We’ve bought our work reduce out for us this 12 months, and I feel we’re going to take our aggressive strategy when it fits us and anticipate the market when it fits us. I feel we’re going to be busy right here. … I feel we’re going to be aggressive once more this 12 months on the lookout for a bat that may play the nook infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left discipline, or a mix of all three of these. After which we’ll resort again to getting extra pitching.”
Rizzo went on to point that he’d be snug providing a number of years to free brokers “in the fitting state of affairs.” It was an encouraging slate of feedback for Nats followers who’ve been monitoring a collection of ballyhooed prospects all through the present rebuild and regarded to the 2024 season as a 12 months that would see the crew start to show the nook.
Quick ahead a number of months, nevertheless, and plenty of of these claims ring hole. The Nationals spent beneath $10MM in free company, didn’t make a single commerce and, regardless of having the No. 5 waiver precedence in baseball, didn’t place a declare on a single participant all offseason.
Washington did certainly add some nook bats, as Rizzo alluded to, however the affect of these acquisitions doesn’t look to be notably excessive. For the second straight season, the Nats purchased low on a non-tendered former prime prospect to take over at third base. In contrast to Jeimer Candelario, nevertheless, Nick Senzel isn’t merely coming off one down season. The previous No. 2 general draft decide has by no means had a median offensive season in elements of 5 MLB campaigns. He’s a profession .239/.302/.369 hitter — about 23% worse than common, by measure of wRC+, which weights for the hitter-friendly residence park through which Senzel has spent his complete profession so far (Cincinnati’s Nice American Ball Park).
Well being has been a significant roadblock for Senzel, who’s been on the injured listing seven instances in his huge league profession (to say nothing of a number of notable accidents from his prospect days). If the Nats can lastly get Senzel wholesome, he’d hardly be the primary former prime prospect to thrive in a change of surroundings. He’s nonetheless simply 28 years previous, and the Nats will solely owe him a $2MM wage this season. If he performs properly, he’ll be a viable commerce deadline chip but in addition could possibly be a multi-year piece for Washington. As a result of he’s three weeks shy of 5 full years of MLB service, Senzel might be controllable by 2025 by way of arbitration.
The Nationals have already stated that Senzel would be the crew’s main third baseman, which displaces their very own in-house former prime prospect, Carter Kieboom. He’s out of choices and now ostensibly taking a look at a bench function. It shouldn’t come as a shock if Kieboom himself is moved in a change-of-scenery deal later this spring — even perhaps following a DFA. It’s comprehensible that the Nats really feel prepared to maneuver on from Kieboom after myriad accidents and elements of 4 unproductive huge league seasons — however it’s not less than a bit shocking that they’re doing so in favor of a participant with a really related profession trajectory so far.
Throughout the diamond, it seems Joey Gallo will get one other alternative to attempt to recapture the Rangers kind that’s more and more turning into a distant reminiscence. He’s nonetheless simply 30 years previous, however Gallo’s bat has cratered since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees again in 2021. The slugger belted 110 residence runs in simply 1716 plate appearances from 2018-21, together with a pair of 40-tater seasons, however since being traded, Gallo has a .166/.293/.396 batting line. He’s nonetheless walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and hit for loads of energy, however his already problematic strikeout charge has ballooned to 40.5% in a major pattern of 970 plate appearances.
Gallo received’t price the Nationals a lot, however at this level he’s two and a half seasons faraway from being a productive hitter. If he goes on an enormous first-half run, he might construct up some commerce worth, however even when he’s hitting moderately properly, he’ll be considered as a unstable rental whose ’21-’23 monitor report makes it powerful for a crew to give up a lot of word in a commerce.
The rest of the lineup is essentially set with in-house names. Shortstop CJ Abrams posted an unpleasant .300 OBP final season however noticed his strikeout and stroll charges enhance within the season’s second half. He’s additionally one among baseball’s most impactful baserunners, swiping a hefty 47 baggage in 51 tries, and quietly related on 18 residence runs final 12 months. There’s official breakout potential for him this season if he can proceed to construct on final 12 months’s second-half positive aspects in his Okay/BB profile.
On the opposite facet of the bag, Luis Garcia Jr. will reprise his function as Washington’s on a regular basis second baseman in what figures to be a make-or-break 12 months of types. The 23-year-old was one of many sport’s prime infield prospects earlier than making his debut as a 20-year-old in 2020, and whereas he’s proven off the premium bat-to-ball abilities that helped him garner reward (12.4% strikeout charge in ’23), he hasn’t carried out a lot else. Final 12 months’s .266/.304/.385 slash (84 wRC+) is correct according to his profession .265/.295/.395 output (85 wRC+). He’s been a sub-par defender so far and hasn’t hit for energy or supplied baserunning worth. He’s younger sufficient to take one other step ahead, but when it doesn’t occur in what’ll be his fifth season with huge league taking part in time, the Nats may need to look elsewhere for a long-term reply.
Then once more, one want solely look to middle discipline to point out the group’s endurance with homegrown skills. Victor Robles might be again for an eighth season regardless of not exhibiting a lot since a promising begin to his profession. From 2017-19, the once-elite prospect — he ranked among the many prime 10 in all of MLB at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus — hit .258/.327/.431 with premium protection. Relationship again to 2020, nevertheless, he’s a .225/.302/.313 hitter (72 wRC+) in practically 1100 plate appearances. Again issues restricted him to 36 video games final 12 months, and his sometimes wonderful defensive grades plummeted. The free agent market supplied some inexpensive alternate options (Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, previous good friend Michael A. Taylor), however the Nats opted to stay with Robles, who’ll attain six years of service in ’24 and change into a free agent subsequent winter. If he’s wholesome and performing even moderately properly this summer season, he’ll be a commerce candidate.
In proper discipline, the Nats will once more give Lane Thomas on a regular basis at-bats and hope he can construct on final 12 months’s .268/.315/.468 exhibiting. Thomas hit 28 homers, swiped 20 baggage and performed a tremendous proper discipline. He’s solely managed by 2025 and was the topic of loads of commerce chatter final summer season. That’ll possible be the case once more come July.
Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz will once more function the first catcher. Ruiz popped 18 homers, struck out in simply 10.3% of his plate appearances and hit .260/.308/.409 (93 wRC+). He’s already signed long-term beneath an eight-year extension.
Joey Meneses is prone to open the season because the Nats’ main designated hitter, however among the shine has come off the late-blooming slugger after an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2022. Menseses hit .324/.367/.543 with 13 homers in simply 240 plate appearances as a rookie in ’22. He noticed practically triple the at-bats in ’23 however nonetheless hit simply 13 homers with an general .275/.321/.401 output. For a bat-only participant, that received’t reduce it transferring ahead.
Left discipline is the one actual spot that’s up for grabs heading into the season. The Nats dished out minor league offers to Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario in hopes one can step as much as fill that spot. Rosario is the extra succesful defender and is coming off a greater 2023 exhibiting. Winker, at his peak, was the extra productive of the 2 — not less than towards right-handed pitching. Neither will price a lot in the event that they make the roster. It’s unlikely both will return a lot in a possible deadline swap, even when they’re performing properly, however the pair of veterans offers the Nats a short-term bridge to prospects like James Wooden, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III.
On the pitching facet of the roster, the Nats will successfully roll out the identical employees that produced among the worst leads to the sport final 12 months. Zach Davies, one other minor league signee, is the one addition of word. The Nats have loads of payroll house however will eschew even modestly priced upgrades within the vein of Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, each of whom stay unsigned.
That may pave the best way for a bunch of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Grey, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams to guide the crew in begins once more, pending any contributions from Davies and prime prospect Cade Cavalli, who’ll finally return from 2023 Tommy John surgical procedure — possible on a restricted workload. Washington is missing in top-end pitching prospects past Cavalli, although names like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge and Mitchell Parker might issue into the rotation in some unspecified time in the future.
The hope might be that Grey, Gore and Cavalli can all take significant steps ahead, however there’s cause to precise skepticism regardless of the previous prime prospect pedigree of every. Grey has by no means walked fewer than 10.5% of his opponents in his two and a half MLB seasons, and final 12 months’s 20.5% strikeout charge was a career-low. He lastly managed to considerably curb his highest-in-MLB residence run charge (2.30 HR/9 in ’22, 1.25 in ’23), however he did so on the expense of strikeouts and extra free passes. Gore was immensely homer-prone (1.78 HR/9) however missed bats at a robust stage and did attain a brand new career-high innings whole (136 1/3). Cavalli was considered by some scouts as a future reliever earlier than he had Tommy John surgical procedure, and he’ll now be beneath a tightly managed workload.
Regardless of Rizzo’s earlier proclamations about needing so as to add pitching assist and being keen to make multi-year gives in the fitting setting, he modified his tune dramatically only a couple months later: “I simply couldn’t discover that beginning pitcher that was going to affect us right now, for not solely the correct amount of years however the fitting wage right now,” Rizzo stated in mid-February.
It’s a puzzling assertion when every of Alex Wooden, Jakob Junis, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Martin Perez inked one-year contracts (for beneath $10MM, within the case of Wooden, Junis and Perez). Every of Kenta Maeda ($24MM), Nick Martinez ($26MM), Michael Wacha ($32MM) and Sean Manaea ($28MM) inked two-year offers with costs that might’ve stored the Nationals’ payroll within the $140MM vary, if not a bit decrease. The Nats peaked at a $197MM payroll in 2019 and had been at $135MM or extra in every season from 2014-22.
It’s an identical story within the bullpen, the place myriad arms signed short-term offers that the Nationals might accommodate. The Nats’ solely pickup was righty Dylan Floro, who has a pleasant monitor report however struggled in ’23 whereas battling a wildly unlucky .401 common on balls in play regardless of better-than-average laborious contact numbers. Floro is a superbly wise pickup, presumably even a cut price, however the Nats have such an undefined bullpen that it’s shocking he was the one one.
Between Floro and the trio of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey — all managed solely by 2025 — Washington may have loads of relievers to hawk this summer season. Veterans Matt Barnes and Richard Bleier might work their manner into that group after signing minor league offers. One other one-year pickup might’ve given them one other, although, and whereas the return on such investments isn’t of word, the Nats clearly had the payroll capability to not less than take a shot.
Maybe the final dearth of exercise stems from uncertainty concerning the way forward for the crew. The Lerner household was reportedly exploring a sale of the membership for the previous couple seasons earlier than saying in late February that these efforts had been being halted. It’s a lot possible that present possession handcuffed Rizzo and his employees in pretty vital vogue this winter, not eager to tackle long-term commitments whereas exploring a sale of the crew. Rizzo, the remainder of the entrance workplace, and possession would by no means publicly state as a lot, however it’s honest to marvel given the minimal payroll outlay and the variety of areas on the roster that stay ripe for an improve.
Whatever the reasoning, the outcomes are what they’re. The 2024 season appears to be like like one other bleak 12 months for Nats followers, one stricken by lackluster pitching performances and subpar offensive manufacturing. However the ongoing rebuild might start to bear fruit later this season, setting the stage for a extra fascinating ’25 marketing campaign. Wooden and Crews will possible be within the majors by then. Corbin might be off the books. Cavalli could possibly be each wholesome and largely freed from an innings cap. And the Nats solely have $43MM on that 12 months’s payroll, maybe setting the stage for a extra aggressive run by free company following the 2024 marketing campaign. That’s shaping as much as be a deep free agent class, headlined by previous good friend Juan Soto along with Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Alex Bregman — amongst many others. This offseason was as quiet as they arrive, however subsequent winter could possibly be extra fascinating.
