Through the playoffs, when it felt like each recreation concerned no less than one shut play that everybody could be speaking concerning the subsequent day, I attempted my hand at breaking down replays. I captured display screen recordings of all of the replay angles, dragged them into iMovie, and had a ball determining the precise second when a cleat grazed the plate or a glove caught the runner’s elbow. I’d wish to assume I even acquired fairly good at it, so if anyone within the Replay Command Middle over on Sixth Avenue ever wants a weekend off, I’ll gladly cowl a shift or two. If you break down footage that manner, you study that shut performs occur on a regular basis they usually’re a lot nearer than you notice. I’ve began to consider that we may do a greater job of dealing with the closest of these performs. On tags and drive performs, which make up roughly three-quarters of all replay challenges, I believe it’s time we modify the replay guidelines in order that the tie goes to the runner.
Earlier than we get too deep into my reasoning, we have to begin by addressing whether or not or not the tie goes to the runner in line with the present letter of the legislation. Whereas all of us realized that rule as kids, it’s not how the sport operates on the highest stage. As David Wade wrote in The Hardball Occasions in 2010, umpires don’t consider the tie goes to the runner. They’re taught that there’s no such factor as a tie. Both the runner beat the ball or they didn’t, and that’s that. “There aren’t any ties and there’s no rule that claims the tie goes to the runner,” stated now retired umpire Tim McClelland in a 2007 interview. “However the rule e-book does say that the runner should beat the ball to first base, and so if he doesn’t beat the ball, then he’s out.” That’s a significant league umpire declaring that the foundations say unambiguously the tie goes to the fielder. Whereas it’s true that the Official Baseball Guidelines don’t point out ties, the remainder of the quote is deceptive.
Let’s set up that, logically, each time a runner touches a base, we will break up the time into three distinct classes: earlier than, throughout, and after. That’s what McClelland was saying. The rule he was referring to was 5.06(a)(1), which leads off the part about what it means to occupy a base. It says: “A runner acquires the fitting to an unoccupied base when he touches it earlier than he’s out.” The onus is on the runner to the touch the bottom first earlier than he’s out. However how does the runner develop into out?
Rule 5.09 is titled Making an Out. It particulars the precise situations beneath which a runner is both secure or out. In different phrases, Rule 5.06(a)(1) relies on Rule 5.09. And guess what: Rule 5.09 flips issues across the different manner. Rule 5.09(a)(10) offers with drive performs for the batter. It says the batter is out if “he or first base is tagged earlier than he touches first base.” The onus is on the fielder to make the tag first. Rule 5.09(b)(6) offers with drive performs for the runner, and it says the identical factor: “He or the subsequent base is tagged earlier than he touches the subsequent base.” Backyard selection tag performs are coated beneath Rule 5.09(b)(4). The runner is out when “He’s tagged… when off his base.” If the tag comes at the very same time that the runner reaches the bottom, nicely, the runner was tagged whereas on his base, so he’d be secure.
If these have been the one three guidelines in query, I’d be strongly inclined to say that the rulebook is crystal clear. The tie goes to the runner, as a result of the runner isn’t out until the tag comes first. That’s what it says within the three easiest, most basic guidelines about what constitutes an out, and people three guidelines cowl the overwhelming majority of safe-out calls on the bases. So whereas Rule 5.06(a)(1) says the runner occupies the bottom by touching it earlier than they’re out, that doesn’t matter all that a lot, as a result of the foundations that really say what constitutes an out put the onus squarely on the fielder to make the tag first.
There’s only one downside: These aren’t the one three guidelines that point out timing. I searched the rulebook and located six different befores and afters. They’re wildly inconsistent. If a runner misses a base after which tries to return to it, a word in Rule 5.06(b)(3)(D) says the tag has to return first. Onus on the fielder. If the runner steals unnecessarily as a result of it’s ball 4, however overruns the bottom, a remark in Rule 5.06(b)(6) says they must return earlier than the tag. Onus on the runner. But when the very same state of affairs occurs as a result of the runner misses the bottom, a word in Rule 5.06(b)(3)(D) says the tag has to return first. Onus on the fielder once more. I received’t bore you with the opposite three, however my level is that when we get into the technicalities, the rulebook isn’t very constant.
No matter conclusion you may draw from this mishmash of befores and afters, it’s apparent that the foundations don’t come wherever close to saying what McClelland believes they do. An inexpensive individual may actually disagree, however my studying leads me to consider that the tie ought to go to the runner. The three large guidelines about what constitutes an out would point out that the tie goes to the runner, whereas the opposite six conditions take care of technicalities, edge instances that make up such a small proportion of the general variety of safe-out selections that they could as nicely be a rounding error.
Now, an inexpensive individual may additionally argue that that is all simply semantics. Possibly the writers of the rulebook simply used the phrases “earlier than” and “after” interchangeably, primarily based on no matter allowed them to put in writing every explicit rule within the easiest way potential. The rulebook may have talked about ties, however omitting them was virtually actually a selection. They make certain to spell out what occurs for different edge instances, like balls hitting the foul line and the very edges of the strike zone. Baseball Almanac notes that the 1875 De Witt’s Base Ball Umpire’s Information, edited by the legendary Henry Chadwick, made it clear that the tie went to the runner. “So that the participant working to first base be put out,” it says in a parenthetical, “the ball…have to be securely held by the bottom participant earlier than the bottom runner reaches the bottom. If concurrently, the bottom runner isn’t put out, the ball should positively have been held earlier than the participant reaches the bottom or the Umpire should resolve the bottom runner ‘not out.’” Different up to date sources agreed. John Thorn, MLB’s official historian, informed The New York Occasions in 2012 that the idea was in all probability by no means codified within the guidelines deliberately, as a result of “it provides the umpire one thing of an out, an excuse if he can name a tie.”
Nonetheless, it makes all of the sense on the earth that umpires are instructed to assume that manner. They’re on the sphere within the warmth of the second. They must be decisive and authoritative. McClelland acknowledged as a lot. His quote continued: “So it’s a must to make the choice. That’s why umpires are paid the cash they’re, to make the choice on if he did or if he didn’t.” Acknowledging a tie is actually an admission of uncertainty, and an unsure umpire will get eaten alive. As such, umpires are taught a mantra that sounds prefer it was coined by Eleanor Shellstrop: “When doubtful, bang him out.” Umpires must venture authority, and punching someone out is extra authoritative than calling them secure. That’s why rubbish politicians crow about how they’re powerful on crime quite than proposing the humane insurance policies which have really been confirmed to mitigate crime.
If you’re the one making the decision in a stadium filled with followers with all the things on the road, refusing to acknowledge the existence of ties is totally comprehensible, perhaps even needed. I’m simply undecided why that coverage ought to lengthen to the eliminated confines of the Replay Command Middle. This interpretation of guidelines which can be obscure – intentionally so, should you consider the league’s personal historian – may use an replace for the problem period, as a result of if there’s one factor video assessment has taught us, it’s that ties occur on a regular basis.
For the reason that introduction of replay in 2014, we’ve seen 15,744 challenges and seven,559 calls overturned, in line with Baseball Savant. It simply so occurs that Rocky Colavito retired with 7,559 profession plate appearances, so over the previous 12 years, replay has allowed us to repair one complete Colavito’s value of calls that, with the advantage of slow-motion, have been clearly incorrect.
In 2025, slightly below 52% of challenges ended with the decision being overturned, the best fee ever. For some cause, Savant doesn’t supply an extra breakdown of the 48% of calls that have been upheld. Typically the umpire pronounces that the video replay has confirmed the decision; typically they announce that the decision merely stands. The latter implies that umpire within the replay room couldn’t definitively say throughout the two-minute time restrict whether or not the decision was appropriate, “as a result of lack of clear and convincing proof.” Luckily, Shut Name Sports activities has been monitoring that individual distinction, and whereas their numbers are old-fashioned, they’re adequate to offer us some common contours. Roughly 20% of calls are confirmed, whereas 28% merely stand. That’s to say that 28% of the time, in line with an umpire whose entire job that day is to investigate shut calls within the Replay Command Middle, utilizing super-slow-motion video from the mixed crews of two broadcast groups wielding the fanciest high-speed, hi-res cameras out there, it’s nonetheless unimaginable to say for sure whether or not the runner was secure or out. That sounds an terrible lot like a tie to me! At this level, I’ll keep away from the temptation to make a detour into Zeno’s paradoxes or infinite set concept and easily acknowledge that have been it potential for us to set our cameras to an infinitely excessive body fee, we’d at all times be capable to inform which factor occurred earlier than which. However that’s by no means going to occur.
When you’ve drunk deeply from the nicely of super-slow-motion replays, you notice that some performs actually are unimaginable to name with certainty. The our bodies of the gamers concerned typically block what would in any other case be the perfect view of the tag. Because it nears the bag, the runner’s hand or cleat normally kicks up a wave of grime forward of it. This wave obscures the bottom, making it laborious to inform precisely when contact happens. It’s even tougher at house plate, the place the hand or cleat doesn’t run right into a stable base, however merely glides throughout the highest of the plate. As a result of most cameras are stationed at considerably elevated positions, and most tags are made with the fielder catching the ball excessive after which sweeping downward to make the tag, the again aspect of the glove normally blocks the view of the exact second when the entrance aspect really touches the runner. If we have been to outfit every base with an array of two,000-frame-per-second Edgertronic cameras at varied strategically-selected angles, we may certainly reduce that 28% determine down considerably, however I doubt we’d ever method zero. We are going to at all times see performs which can be, for all intents and functions, ties:
It’s one factor for umpires on the sphere to faux ties don’t exist in an effort to perform their duties with out compunction. It’s one other to make that very same assertion if you’re analyzing footage that slices every second right into a minimal of 29.97 frames and you continue to can’t inform what occurred greater than 1 / 4 of the time. At that time, you’re dwelling in denial. Ties are actual. They occur roughly 400 occasions a season, and roughly 300 of these are on forces and tag performs. That’s a pair occasions an evening.
When Main League Baseball adopted expanded prompt replay in 2014, it basically adopted the mannequin that the NFL has been utilizing since 1999. When the play is simply too near name, it defaults to the unique name on the sphere. It’s comprehensible. No person desires to undermine the umpires. Their job is hard sufficient already. It is smart to bolster their authority by implying that when doubtful, their view is the fitting one. It additionally represents the smallest departure from the best way the sport labored earlier than replay, which was a precedence again when expanded replay was launched. “We’re actually [targeting] the dramatic miss, not all misses” stated Tony La Russa, who served on the committee that established the system. But when your aim is getting calls proper, you would argue that that is the worst solution to deal with performs which can be too near name.
First, even when the umpire in New York can’t say for sure what occurred, spending a pair minutes analyzing the perfect footage out there will at all times give them a greater concept of what occurred than the umpire who acquired one crack at it in actual time. It’s simply unimaginable that it wouldn’t. Accuracy would little question be vastly improved if the replay umpire acquired the ultimate say, it doesn’t matter what their diploma of certainty, utilizing their greatest judgment similar to the umpire on the sphere.
Now let’s return to the 72% of challenges which can be settled definitively by the replay umpire — that’s the 52% of calls which can be overturned plus the 20% that confirmed. We’re setting apart the 28% which can be too near name. Somewhat arithmetic tells you that of this subset, the preliminary name on the sphere was proper 28% of the time and mistaken 72% of the time. I notice that is complicated as a result of the odds occur to be the identical, however what this implies is that when the replays are clear sufficient that the umpire in New York could make a definitive name, they’re clear in a single explicit route: the umpire is mistaken practically three-quarters of the time. And as soon as once more, these are the performs that aren’t fairly as shut! Why precisely are we deferring to the umpire on the sphere on performs which can be even nearer? As a result of that’s how the NFL does it? To spare their emotions? That final challenge really is spelled out very clearly within the rulebook: “Umpire dignity is essential however by no means as essential as ‘being proper.’” Logic says that if umpires are mistaken 72% of the time on the challenged calls which can be clear sufficient to be definitive on video, they in all probability fare even worse on the performs which can be too near name. Probably the most correct solution to deal with them is likely to be simply to reverse the decision on the sphere as a matter of coverage! Even flipping a coin would certainly be far more correct.
These are clearly capricious strategies. I don’t imply to denigrate the umpires in any manner. They’ve a very tough job, and similar to the gamers on the sphere, they’re the perfect on the earth at what they do. But it surely’s apparent that there’s a sure subset of performs that basically are too near name, even after we push previous the boundaries of human physiology and resort to probably the most superior know-how out there. And on the slightly-less-close calls, the document of the umpires on the sphere isn’t sterling, fairly probably as a result of when the play is shut, they’ve been taught to only name the runner out by default. That itself is one argument in favor of giving the tie to the runner when the replay is simply too shut. When umpires aren’t positive, they bang the runner out, which implies that on the very closest of performs, a lot of them ties that arguably needs to be going to the runner, they’re somewhat bit biased within the different route. If you need proof of that, look no additional than the truth that in 2025, 70% of the challenges on shut performs at first base have been overturned! If the earlier percentages maintain, that implies that the decision on the sphere was solely confirmed round 13% of the time!
Deciding these ties in favor of the runner would additionally push the sport within the route the league desires anyway. Annually, it could flip a number of hundred out calls into secure calls, boosting offense barely with out furthering the boom-and-bust cycle of house runs and strikeouts. It could additionally present a slight reprieve from the low-BABIP doldrums, immediately including roughly two factors to the league fee. The downstream results would encourage the thrilling elements of the sport that everybody desires to see extra of: placing the ball in play, stealing, and taking the additional base. Possibly these results could be too small for us to note each day – these ties would solely crop up as soon as each eight video games – however they might be actual and measurable.
Defaulting to the judgment of the umpire on the sphere on even harder performs makes loads of sense from a human perspective. It helped ease the sport into the period of expanded replay with out upsetting the present norms an excessive amount of. However purely by way of getting the right name, it’s in all probability the worst possibility out there, and it includes the denial of a actuality that we will all see: ties occur so much.
We’re now 12 years and several other rule tweaks into expended replay. Why not hold bettering it? The league has up to date and clarified the foundations of the replay system a number of occasions. It’s banned the shift, enlarged the bases, carried out the pitch clock, and restricted pickoff makes an attempt. It’s implementing an ABS problem system for balls and strikes this yr. I believe it’s honest to say that Main League Baseball is not simply involved concerning the dramatic miss.
Lastly, I can’t deny that having the sport conform to what we have been all taught as youngsters has knowledgeable my opinion. The tie would lastly go to the runner, and that will really feel proper. To that finish, I’d word that it’s not simply followers who consider the tie goes to the runner. Watch a number of challenges and I assure that you simply’ll hear one of many broadcasters point out it as a matter in fact. The play-by-play individuals have spent their complete careers calling baseball. Practically all the shade commentators are former gamers who’ve spent their complete lives in and across the recreation. They’ve producers and researchers of their ear. And so they consider that the tie goes to the runner! It’s fairly potential that the umpires – together with the true sickos, in fact – are the one ones on the opposite aspect of this argument. So whereas this will likely really feel like a dramatic shift, it could additionally simply carry the foundations into alignment with how practically all of us, each inside and out of doors the sport, already perceive them to work.
