Pitching analyst Lance Brozdowski has been on Brandon Woodruff for the reason that Brewers right-hander returned from a 2023 shoulder surgical procedure on July 6. Brozdowski has written about Woodruff twice, first breaking down the ways in which he seems like a special pitcher this season. His second piece was titled “How Is Brandon Woodruff Doing This?” I’d like to essentially dig in and reply that query, each as a result of when Brozdowski asks a query it’s normally a very good one and since Woodruff’s numbers actually are complicated. As Michael Baumann famous a couple of weeks in the past, Woodruff’s return coincided nearly precisely with Milwaukee’s current unbeatable stretch. “If Woodruff is effectively and really again,” Baumann wrote, “for my cash he’s an even bigger add than any starter who’s more likely to get moved on the deadline.” Woodruff has gone 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, and a 34.9% strikeout price over his six begins, and he’ll probably be an enormous a part of the staff’s playoff rotation, however whether or not he’s again remains to be very a lot an open query.
Earlier than we get into every thing, we should always discuss Woodruff’s arsenal, which a minimum of for a short while regarded fairly totally different this season. A month in the past at Brewer Fanatic, Matthew Trueblood analyzed Woodruff’s repertoire throughout his minor league rehab task, and wrote that in an effort to achieve success, “Woodruff might want to reinvent himself.” The pitcher appeared to agree, a minimum of at first. This season within the majors, he has thrown a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, cutter, curve, and sweeper. The cutter is new, with the sweeper changing his conventional slider. Nevertheless, he hasn’t thrown the sweeper since his second begin (probably as a result of it was the second sport in a row the opposite staff homered on the pitch), and he’s additionally drastically lowered his cutter utilization over his final two begins. He’s additionally practically evened out his fastball utilization. In recent times, Woodruff led along with his four-seamer, however now he’s throwing it 34% of the time and his sinker 31%, main with the sinker towards righties and the four-seamer towards lefties. His curveball is down to five% and his changeup has held regular at 17%. In different phrases, Woodruff is throwing a fastball 65% of the time, and that quantity jumps to 77% of the time for those who depend the cutter:
Let’s begin with the explanations for suspicion, and please word that this part makes up 5 full paragraphs. Luck is an enormous part right here. Woodruff is at the moment working a .143 BABIP and a 100% strand price. Eight of the 9 earned runs he’s allowed have come on dwelling runs. These are massively unsustainable numbers. The league averages a .289 BABIP and 72.5% strand price. Although he’s spent his complete profession pitching in entrance of a superb Milwaukee protection, Woodruff has by no means run a BABIP under .269 or a strand price above 82% (besides in 2023, when he solely made 11 begins). It doesn’t matter what else occurs, we should always anticipate his BABIP so as to add a minimum of 100 factors and his strand price to drop by a minimum of 20% going ahead.
Woodruff’s fastball velocity is down considerably, which isn’t precisely sudden after shoulder surgical procedure. From 2019 to 2022, he averaged 96.4 mph on his heater. Earlier than he acquired harm in 2023, he was all the way down to 95.9 mph. Thus far this season, he’s at 93.1 mph. In accordance with Baseball Savant, meaning he went from being within the eighty fifth percentile in 2022 to the twenty ninth percentile this season. He’s gone from having plus velocity to having – uh, is there a scouting phrase for the alternative of plus? – let’s say unplus velocity. It was a energy; now it’s a weak point. There’s no method for us to know whether or not Woodruff will get a few of that velocity again over the long-term. Shoulder surgical procedure is an enormous deal, and as a 32-year-old, we’d’ve anticipated him to have misplaced some velocity by now anyway. Perhaps it received’t come again in any respect, or perhaps it should come again finally, however we positively shouldn’t anticipate him to be sitting 95 mph by October.
Woodruff has additionally misplaced important motion on most of his pitches. His four-seamer each rises and runs lower than it did in 2023. So does his changeup. His curveball drops much less, and his sinker runs much less and rises extra. As you would possibly anticipate, the stuff fashions will not be thrilled about slower pitches that transfer much less. In 2023, PitchingBot gave Woodruff’s stuff a 54 grade, whereas Stuff+ had him at 108. This season, these numbers are 41 and 96. Apart from the brand new sweeper he’s thrown simply seven occasions, each fashions suppose all of his pitches are worse than they have been in 2023.
Actuality appears to agree with the fashions. Woodruff’s 25.9% chase price is his lowest since 2018. His groundball price has completely cratered, from proper round 38% in 2022 and 2023 to 26% this season. Not solely is he permitting batters to hit the ball within the air, he’s permitting them to drag it within the air. That’s essentially the most harmful sort of contact there may be, and amongst pitchers who’ve allowed a minimum of 50 balls in play, Woodruff’s 23.4% pulled air ball price places him within the 92nd percentile, in a nasty method. His 9.1% barrel price is the best of his profession. Batters have a median bat pace of 72.8 mph towards him, a mark that ranks tenth highest among the many 438 pitchers who’ve thrown a minimum of 400 pitches to date this season. Batters are seeing the ball and swinging from their heels.
We must also point out the competitors. Woodruff has confronted the Marlins and Nationals twice, the Mets as soon as, and the Mariners as soon as. For the reason that begin of July, the Marlins, Mets, and Nationals have been three of the worst offenses in baseball, respectively rating twenty fourth, twenty fifth, and twenty seventh in response to wRC+. The Marlins and the Nationals rank twenty fourth and twenty seventh in dwelling runs this season, so it’s fairly disconcerting once they’re those making you look homer-prone.
Alright, that’s the tip of the part. These are all the explanations to fret that what Woodruff has executed to date is unsustainable. Now it’s time for the explanations to consider, and the very first thing I’d prefer to level out is that Woodruff was ranging from a really excessive stage. He’s been a genuinely nice pitcher for years now, so though all these numbers I simply informed you about are worse than they’ve ever been, in addition they aren’t saying he’s rubbish now. Stuff+ sees him as proper round common, and PitchingBot expects him to have a 3.57 ERA, considerably higher than the 4.12 mark that starters across the league have averaged this season.
Woodruff has additionally had his share of unhealthy luck to go together with the nice this season. Thus far, 17.1% of his fly balls have gone for dwelling runs, the best price of his profession. Now, he’s earned these homers – Statcast thinks he ought to have 6.5 homers quite than seven – however that doesn’t imply they’re not affecting his BABIP not directly. A part of the explanation Woodruff’s BABIP is so low is that when batters have hit the ball onerous towards him, they’ve hit it out of the ballpark, and people homers don’t contribute to BABIP. In the event you throw out the house runs, his xwOBA of .262 is among the many lowest within the league, and his common exit velocity of 85.9 mph can be superb. So whereas his BAPIP remains to be unsustainably low, there’s a minimum of a bit much less luck concerned than you would possibly initially suppose.
Let’s have a look at Woodruff’s stroll and strikeout charges subsequent, as a result of they’re each wonderful. Regardless of the lowered stuff and the decrease chase price, his whiff price is correct round his profession common, and his 20.9% known as strike price is the most effective of his profession by a large margin. So is his 69% first strike price. Because of this, his 34.9% strikeout price is the most effective of his profession, as is his 4.7% stroll price. If Woodruff can preserve these numbers the place they’re, he’ll be a very good pitcher even when he retains giving up homers and his BABIP bounces as much as regular ranges.
Nonetheless, I’m truthfully undecided how he’s incomes so many whiffs contained in the zone when his stuff seems a lot worse, and I’m undecided how he’s incomes so many known as strikes. Right here’s my greatest guess, although. The known as strikes are coming nearly totally from his fastballs. Collectively, the four-seamer and the sinker have a 24% known as strike price. They’d by no means even hit 20% in any earlier season. In the event you simply have a look at pitches throughout the strike zone, that quantity jumps to 33.5% this season, as soon as once more a profession excessive by a big margin. I’m positive to some extent it has to do with the groups Woodruff has performed – the Marlins and the Nationals rank twentieth and twenty fifth respectively in swing price towards fastballs within the zone – nevertheless it might additionally should do along with his pitch combine. Whereas the lack of motion and velocity is undoubtedly a nasty factor, Woodruff’s four-seamer and sinker now have a spot of 10 inches by way of horizontal break, the farthest aside they’ve ever been. Add within the occasional cutter, and hastily, when a batter picks up velocity out of the hand, that is the pitch motion they’ve to fret about:
The four-seamer goes straight, the sinker fades, and the cutter cuts. In different phrases, the ball might journey in both path. That’s a recipe for hesitation and known as strikes, and it may very well be the explanation that Woodruff’s whiff and putaway charges on each his sinker and four-seamer are the best they’ve been in years. The cutter doesn’t grade out effectively in response to stuff fashions, however that doesn’t imply that it’s not making Woodruff’s different fastballs look even higher.
In the same vein, it’s not supreme that Woodruff’s sinker has extra rise, however that does create extra vertical separation between it and his changeup. Comparatively talking, the changeup immediately has extra drop, which might assist clarify the pitch’s dominance this season. It’s a small pattern, however to date, it has a 38% whiff price and only a 5.9% hard-hit price.
Woodruff has at all times been an fascinating pitcher. He’s so fastball heavy, and he’s not afraid to throw his four-seamer low within the zone. I’m actually curious to see what he does subsequent. It’s nonetheless so early for him. Will he convey again the sweeper that regarded so promising? Will he preserve phasing out the cutter? Will he throw the changeup extra usually now that it seems so dominant? Will he be capable of preserve pounding the zone along with his fastballs, and can hitters proceed to take them for strikes? As Michael Trzinski wrote at Brewer Fanatic final week, if Woodruff can preserve this up, he seems like a real Comeback Participant of the Yr candidate. The Brewers have a harder stretch forward of them, and as of proper now, it seems like his subsequent begins will come towards the Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Rangers. That’s a a lot more durable highway than he’s traveled to date. It might be unreasonable to anticipate Woodruff to maintain working a 2.29 ERA, however I don’t suppose we all know what an affordable expectation seems like simply but.
