Singled Out: Mariners Uncover Fact in Opening Week

The outcomes are more true than ever.

The Mariners didn’t report a single of their first two video games of 2026. No workforce had ever accomplished that in main league historical past. In truth, solely eight groups have ever gone back-to-back video games with out a single, based on MLB.com’s Sarah Langs.

The reason being apparent. The Mariners didn’t hit a single as a result of they didn’t put the ball in play fairly often. And albeit, how may they? Guardians pitchers threw lower than 40% of their pitches within the zone, and the Mariners had been compelled to put off them, drawing walks in 13.6% of their plate appearances throughout these two video games. When the Guardians did enter the zone, the Mariners struggled to make contact, putting out 35.8% of the time. Which means solely 34 (50.8%) of their plate appearances ended with a batted ball. And since the Mariners make use of a variety of sluggers, six of these batted balls flew over the fence.

That left simply 28 balls in play that might have fallen for singles. Most had been grounders wolfed up by top-of-the-line infields within the majors. The remaining had been fly balls and popups simply snagged in Seattle’s cool, small outfield (T-Cellular Park suppresses BABIP nearly in addition to it encourages strikeouts). Three balls did finally land in play for hits — they simply occurred to go for further bases.

Cal Raleigh collected the Mariners’ first single within the third inning of Saturday’s sport. It was his first ball in play of the season, after beginning the yr 0-for-8 with eight strikeouts and a stroll. That is really a pleasant piece of irony that Raleigh, of all folks, can be the one to choose up the primary single. He swings onerous, up and to the pull aspect, and it’s uncommon to see him plop one into heart. Practically half his plate appearances in 2025 resulted in one of many three true outcomes. He even had a 12-game stretch in July with out a single, double, or triple, registering a .000 BABIP throughout 54 plate appearances. Was this a droop? Removed from it. He drew 9 walks and hit six homers to submit a 127 wRC+ over these two weeks. He’s develop into one among a number of exemplars for the three true consequence strategy (and aesthetic):

That’s a listing any participant wish to be on, however there is perhaps a bit extra competitors to prime it this yr. The speed of three true outcomes has exploded throughout the league within the early going this season, leaping from 33.7% in 2025 to 37.1% by the primary tranche of video games in 2026. If it had been to carry, that will be the very best mark ever. Nonetheless, we’re just one week into the season, and issues will change. How?

The primary purpose three true outcomes are up is strikeouts are up. The league strikeout fee sits at 24.5%, which might be the very best mark for a full season. That is attention-grabbing. The league’s strikeout fee appeared to plateau in 2019 after many years of progress. It even shrunk just a few ticks lately, as batters countered growing velocity and fashionable bullpen utilization with new efficiencies of their very own. But it surely appears they weren’t fairly ready for the leap in means pitchers displayed within the first week:

Now, the pattern is extraordinarily small, and it’s biased for a variety of causes. For example, it consists of information from every workforce’s greatest beginning pitchers, and we’ll see pitcher efficiency go down as attrition mounts and groups flip to lesser choices. This pattern additionally consists of extra relievers than it should come July, as groups are reluctant to let their beginning pitchers go deep into video games this early within the season. We haven’t seen the form these metrics will absorb 2026.

As an example this, I discovered the seven-day rolling common for all these metrics throughout the pitch-tracking period utilizing the pitch-level information out there from Baseball Savant. Velocity tends to spike instantly, drop, after which slowly climb all through the summer season.

The identical is true of whiffs, though the rise doesn’t occur till the very finish of the season, as groups start managing their bullpens prefer it’s the playoffs:

I don’t count on the present strikeout atmosphere to carry all yr, and I count on batters to slowly catch up, as they at all times do. That mentioned, what we’ve seen so far in 2026 remains to be fairly excessive. The league’s four-seamer velocity of 94.9 mph is the highest-ever mark over any seven-day stretch. The league’s whiff fee of 27.9% is tied with the primary week of 2025 for the very best ever over any seven-day stretch. The league’s strikeout fee will not be fairly the very best ever, nevertheless it’s very shut. These figures aren’t outliers by any means and are solely notable to the thousandths-place decimal, however there’s no less than a little bit of early sign that we haven’t discovered the ceiling on all this.

The primary week of 2026 additionally represents the very best seven-day stroll fee since 2009 at 9.8%. Now, it’s not that bizarre to see whiffs and velocity trending up, as a result of they’ve been trending up for some time now. However walks? Walks aren’t trending. They’ve been fairly danged constant on the plus-or-minus 8% for years and years. I believe we’re prone to see this fee self-correct over the following few weeks:

What’s attention-grabbing, nevertheless, is simply how poor pitchers’ intention has been up to now. Greater than a 3rd of pitches have been thrown within the chase and waste areas — these areas up to now out of the zone they’re not often known as strikes (0.1% in 2025). This is able to signify a large enhance over another yr within the pitch-tracking period. I can’t do the identical weekly evaluation with zone charges, and my assumption is that this isn’t extraordinary in small samples. However the historic fee of walks will proceed till pitchers hone in, possible ahead of later.

The ultimate reality, after all, is dwelling runs. In contrast to the stats above, dwelling runs begin low and develop all through the season because the climate will get heat and the ball carries extra:

I don’t see something notable, large or small, within the fee of plate appearances ending in a house run (2.8%), nor the speed of fly balls turning into dwelling runs. I additionally don’t see proof that the balls are juiced this yr (although my solely qualification to make that assertion is my means to search out the drag dashboard on Baseball Savant).

That mentioned, the league’s contact profile within the first week is attention-grabbing. Whereas batters have proven considerably extra swing-and-miss, the contact they do make is extremely prone to be within the air and to the pull aspect. Not solely that, however the barrel fee on these pulled flies is at an all-time excessive. I’m undecided whether or not that may result in extra homers because the season goes on — these charges have trended up for years, whereas dwelling run charges haven’t. However I believe this means batters are persevering with to vary their strategy, aiming for the shallowest a part of the park and away from the traditionally wonderful defenders in heart area.

OK, to recap: 1) Strikeouts are up, and although they are going to in all probability come down, the pattern remains to be considerably notable; 2) walks are approach up, however will in all probability come down, assuming pitchers can discover the zone; and three) homers are regular, even when batters appear to be making an attempt very onerous to hit them. The primary week of 2026 represents the very best fee of plate appearances ending in a 3 true consequence since… the ultimate week of 2025. We’re, roughly, right here:

The Mariners have hit many singles since these first two video games. It was a weird feat made extra possible by the present state of the majors: Guardians pitchers prevented the zone, Mariners hitters swung for the fences, and good defenders took what remained. But it surely needs to be clear that, even in a contemporary atmosphere, such an occasion is way from the norm. There are nonetheless loads of singles in baseball, nonetheless loads of motion. The game will not be dying. In truth, wanting on the checklist above of gamers with essentially the most three true outcomes, I type of assume we like this fashion of play.