This is smart, no less than on the floor. Stevenson is dependable. He does what he does. He controls house. He limits exchanges. He wins rounds in a manner that leaves little or no residue. From a betting perspective, that’s comforting. Chaos is dear. Stevenson is anti-chaos.
Lopez, in the meantime, has been priced like an inconvenience. Not a mirage. Not a entice. Only a drawback that may be managed with self-discipline and endurance. And in case you are the form of one who prefers their fights to unfold in neat, predictable chapters, that in all probability feels proper.
And but.
Lopez has spent a lot of his profession being the fighter everybody thinks they’ve found out proper up till the second he does one thing that makes them really feel silly for having thought that. His greatest performances have tended to reach when expectations had been low and certainty was excessive. He doesn’t thrive on being trusted. He thrives on being underestimated.
There may be additionally the small matter of how fights are literally scored, which is one thing all of us faux is clear till it all of a sudden is just not. Stevenson wins time. Lopez wins moments. That distinction is simple to dismiss till you watch judges erase three tidy rounds as a result of one spherical ended with seen harm. Judges are human. They reply to drive. They at all times have.
At junior welterweight, Lopez doesn’t appear like a customer. He seems to be sturdy. He seems to be comfy. He doesn’t must win each change. He wants one. That’s not a cushty equation for a fighter whose whole attraction rests on conserving fights calm.
There may be additionally the query of timing, which the percentages don’t account for as a result of odds wouldn’t have reminiscence. Stevenson remains to be changing into this model of himself at 140. Lopez already is aware of how his energy behaves right here. That information doesn’t assure something, however it does make errors dearer.
Loads of sensible folks nonetheless like Stevenson. Terence Crawford reportedly does. Max Kellerman actually does. I’m not shocked by that, and I’m not calling them fallacious.
What sticks with me is the quiet resistance. Fighters say it’s nearer than the road suggests. Followers are wanting on the odds and squinting. That feeling that the mathematics could also be tidy, however the struggle will not be.
I’m not predicting an upset. I’m saying that each time Lopez will get priced like this, it tends to finish with folks explaining afterward why they need to have identified higher.
