The Playoff Odds Assume This Season Is Boring

How probably do you suppose the Reds are to make the playoffs? I’m not asking you to guess what our Playoff Odds say about them. I’ll inform you that within the subsequent paragraph. I’m asking you to place your personal quantity on it, based mostly on what you realize and take into consideration each the Reds and the playoff image. They’re 59-54 with 49 video games to play. They’re three video games again of the Padres for the ultimate Wild Card spot and 4 behind the Mets for the second spot. Acquired a quantity in your head? Then we’re prepared for an additional paragraph.

Thanks for taking part in. As of this writing, our Playoff Odds give the Reds a 12.4% likelihood of reaching the postseason. I think about that feels just a little gentle to no less than some folks. Baseball Reference provides the Reds a 36.3% likelihood of creating the playoffs. They’re inside 4 video games of each the Mets and the Padres. They’re additionally inside 5 video games of the Phillies, the first-place crew within the NL East. If the Reds hold taking part in like they’re taking part in and any a kind of groups has a late-season swoon, they’re in. Based on Pythagorean Win-Loss expectancy, they need to have the identical report because the Mets proper now and a greater report than the Padres. They only added on the deadline. Hunter Greene seems like he’ll be again quickly, and Elly De La Cruz certain seems just like the type of participant who can put a crew on his again for a pair weeks and carry it over the end line.

Then once more, I’m certain that quantity feels excessive to some folks. You’ll be able to perceive why the numbers don’t just like the Reds. Baseball Reference provides them such a excessive likelihood as a result of it ignores roster composition, and, properly, the Reds have a weaker roster than the groups forward of them. They rank twenty second in place participant WAR, they usually didn’t add as a lot on the deadline because the Phillies, Mets, or Padres. In actual fact, in keeping with ZiPS, they really turned 3.2% much less prone to make the playoffs when the deadline mud settled, due to doubts about Ke’Bryan Hayes and presumably as a result of the opposite groups added a lot extra. They’ve had the fifth-easiest schedule in baseball up to now within the season, they usually’ve received the hardest schedule in baseball from right here on out. They’ve overperformed their xwOBA by six factors, the second-highest such hole in baseball. Not solely do our projections have the Reds lacking the playoffs, they’ve them ending at 82-80, one sport above .500 for the season and 7 video games behind the Padres within the standings.

This text isn’t meant to be a referendum on the Reds. I’ve been specializing in them up to now as a result of they’re the one crew within the Nationwide League whose Playoff Odds are between 10% and 85%. Let me say that one other means. With a 12.4% likelihood of creating the playoffs, they’re someway the closest crew within the Nationwide League to 50%. Right here’s what that appears like in a desk (particularly, the skinniest desk you’ll ever see right here at FanGraphs). Beneath is the whole Nationwide League, leaving out all groups with odds above 97% or beneath 3%, since they appear like kind of certain issues. That is the whole playoff image.

That doesn’t depart loads of groups, and even this group of 5 splits into two very apparent classes. It’s a battle over two spots, and the second-place crew has an fringe of about 75 share factors on the membership in third. We’ve received the Mets and Padres in line to get the ultimate two Wild Card spots, after which we’ve received all people else. The Giants and Cardinals simply bought on the deadline. Even they’re not giving themselves an opportunity. The Reds and Padres are the one groups between 90% and 10%. If the Reds make the playoffs, will probably be a giant shock, no less than in keeping with the robots who see the long run.

Issues are extra equitable within the American League, but it surely’s nonetheless awfully stratified. The Pink Sox are at present 2 1/2 video games forward of the Yankees within the Wild Card standings, however Boston has the third-best Playoff Odds (78.8%) of the groups not in first place, behind New York (85.1%) and Seattle (80.0%). The projections see the Rangers because the crew prone to find yourself simply out of the image. The drop-off between the Pink Sox and the Rangers is 40.6 share factors, from 78.8% to 38.2%. Boston’s odds are greater than twice as excessive!

This isn’t regular. On this date final yr, six completely different groups had Playoff Odds between 40% and 60%. Two groups met that standards on this date in 2023 and three groups in 2022. This yr, the fourth season of this new prolonged Wild Card format, it’s zero. Our Playoff Odds return to 2014, and even within the outdated Wild Card format, we by no means received up to now within the calendar with no groups between 40% and 60%. In actual fact, there have been no less than two groups in that state of affairs in each season besides 2019. That is shaping as much as be the least aggressive playoff race in current reminiscence. In idea, this new playoff format ought to make the postseason extra accessible for extra groups. The bar for entry shouldn’t be a lot above .500, and many groups normally hang around proper round .500. Perhaps this yr is an outlier, or perhaps it’s what we must always come to anticipate going ahead, with the league cut up up so neatly into tremendous groups and tremendous tankers, patrons and sellers. In case you promote on the deadline, you’ll be able to inform your followers you’re constructing for the long run. In case you simply miss the playoffs, you simply failed, and it’s possible you’ll not get all of the credit score you deserve for attempting.

Earlier than I depart you, I ought to give the plain reminder that these are simply projections. They’re good, however they’re not good. Numerous unexpected issues will occur. The Rangers look able to making a run. The Reds have a one-in-8.1 likelihood of creating the playoffs, and extra inconceivable issues occur on a regular basis. The Tigers had a 0.2% likelihood of creating the playoffs on this date final yr, and you’ll nonetheless purchase T-shirts commemorating what occurred subsequent. Even when nothing modifications, there’ll nonetheless be battles. The Mets and the Phillies may duke it out till the final sport of the season within the NL East. The AL East has three groups with an actual shot. The Brewers and Cubs may make it shut within the NL Central, and the Astros and Mariners may do the identical within the AL West. A few of these races will have an effect on who will get a bye and who doesn’t. Will probably be thrilling. However none of that implies that the projections don’t present us with significant info. So far as who’s making the playoffs and who isn’t, it’s been no less than 11 years since we’ve seen so little suspense at this level within the calendar.