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The Working of the Bell

February 26, 2025
in Baseball
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Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports activities

Michelle Yeoh is among the best actors working at present. How do I do know that? It’s not her 40-year profession, the 50-plus movies on her résumé, or the Academy Award in her trophy case. No, it’s the truth that she was forged within the movie adaptation of Depraved, one of the crucial beloved musicals on the planet, regardless of having no earlier vocal coaching or singing expertise. She informed director Jon M. Chu as a lot earlier than she agreed to affix the forged: “You understand Jon, I don’t sing.” With all due respect, it reveals.

If you happen to haven’t already seen Depraved, nicely, you must hurry up, as a result of the Oscars are on Sunday. On the very least, take a take heed to “The Wizard and I,” by which Yeoh sings alongside Broadway star and Academy Award nominee Cynthia Erivo. Their pairing is the vocal equal of the “unfinished horse drawing” meme. But, throughout the context of your complete movie, Yeoh makes it work. Her performing is so robust, her portrayal of Madame Morrible so full and convincing, that by the top of the film, it’s onerous to think about anybody else within the position. She may need a darkish blue slider bar within the Vocal Runs Above Common part of her Cinema Savant web page, however her general efficiency was nicely above substitute stage.

There are certainly some passionate musical theatre followers who took umbrage on the casting of a non-singer in a singing position. I don’t depend myself amongst them. I believe there’s something fantastic about the concept that somebody can use their strengths to beat their weaknesses. It’s good to know an individual doesn’t must be expert at each a part of an exercise to be altogether profitable. On that be aware, right here’s what it seems to be like when skilled baseball participant Josh Bell tries to run:

Bell wasn’t even the baserunner in that final clip, however how may I depart it out? Have a look at how far J.T. Realmuto had made it down the baseline when Bell picked up the ball:

First baseman Josh Bell fields a groundball near first base. Runner J.T. Realmuto is still quite far from the bag.

And right here’s Realmuto reaching the bag a cut up second earlier than Bell:

Runner J.T. Realmuto runs out a groundball to first baseman Josh Bell, earning an infield single.

Yeoh is an Oscar-winning actor, which suggests she will star in a film musical regardless of a weak singing voice. Likewise, Bell is a Silver Slugger-winning hitter, which suggests he can have a significant league profession regardless of being one of many worst baserunners I’ve ever seen. And I believe that’s nice.

A few months in the past, I wrote about gamers who try just one stolen base in a full, certified season. I named such a season after Paul Konerko, who holds the file for probably the most particular person campaigns that meet the factors. Nevertheless, Bell was the participant that caught with me probably the most after writing that piece. Check out this desk displaying the eight gamers in recorded MLB historical past to have 4 or extra certified seasons with precisely one stolen base try:

Most “Konerko” Seasons

*Certified seasons with just one stolen base try (profitable or not)

So far as accomplishments go, a Konerko is basically arbitrary and utterly trivial. Nonetheless, that’s a powerful listing of names. Jim Thome and David Ortiz are Corridor of Famers. Miguel Cabrera will be part of them quickly sufficient. Victor Martinez, Frank Howard, and Adrián González had been all distinctive skills in their very own proper. Konerko is a White Sox legend. In fact, it’s no mere coincidence that this leaderboard is affected by All-Stars. This can be a listing of men who racked up a ton of certified seasons, and so they earned all that enjoying time regardless of offering subsequent to nothing on the basepaths. No marvel they had been nice hitters. They’re all examples of gamers who made up for a weak point in a single space with their strengths in others.

But, Bell stands out from the pack for a handful of causes. For one, he’s nonetheless energetic, and he’s younger sufficient that he may simply add a couple of extra Konerko seasons to his tally earlier than his profession is up. He’s additionally unmistakably the worst general participant of the bunch. That’s much less a knock on Bell and extra a credit score to the others. Right here’s how Bell stacks as much as the remainder of the listing when it comes to WAR:

Konerko Leaders by WAR

Participant
Profession WAR
Seven-Yr Peak WAR
WAR By means of Age 31

Miguel Cabrera
68.8
45.3
60.9

Jim Thome
69.0
40.5
45.8

David Ortiz
51.0
32.8
26.5

Frank Howard
38.7
30.1
24.2

Adrián González
36.5
29.1
29.8

Victor Martinez
26.8
27.3
23.2

Paul Konerko
24.0
19.3
15.9

Josh Bell
9.6
10.1
9.6

This implies Bell comes the closest to the purpose at which the remainder of his expertise won’t be sufficient to compensate for his poor baserunning. Certainly, he has put up damaging Offensive Runs Above Common (Off) the previous two years as a consequence of poor baserunning numbers canceling out his barely above-average bat. In the meantime, guys like Cabrera or Thome may have insisted on making an attempt 50 steals a yr and nonetheless been worthwhile gamers.

The very last thing that units Bell aside from the others is that he’s the one one who was caught stealing in all of his Konerko seasons. That additionally makes him the one participant in recorded MLB historical past with 4 certified seasons of precisely one stolen base try and one caught stealing. Solely three different gamers have even had three such seasons. Solely 30 have achieved it twice.

Bell went 0-for-1 on the bases in 2024. He went 0-for-1 on the bases in 2023. He additionally went 0-for-1 on the bases in 2022. Sadly, he didn’t try any stolen bases in 2020 or 2021. However in 2019? He went 0-for-1. That’s actually a outstanding run of stolen base ineptitude. From 2019-24, Bell was one among 151 gamers to build up 2,000 or extra plate appearances. He was the one one with out a single stolen base. Check out his 4 makes an attempt from the previous six years for a textbook lesson on how to not steal a base:

Bell ran a bit extra recurrently throughout his first three massive league seasons. Nevertheless, he wasn’t any extra productive. From 2016-18, he went 4-for-14 (28.6%) in stolen base makes an attempt. That’s technically higher than his 0% success charge from 2019 onward. But, in keeping with weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Bell was nearly twice as detrimental on a per-game foundation in his first three seasons than he’s been within the six seasons since. Let me put that one other method: He’s the one participant (min. 2,000 PA) with none stolen bases up to now six years – and he’s nonetheless been a more practical base stealer than he was the three years prior.

All informed, Bell has produced -9.8 wSB in his profession. That’s the bottom whole within the sport in that point by greater than two runs. To place that quantity in context, take into account that Rickey Henderson was price 9.5 wSB in 1982, when he set the fashionable file with 130 stolen bases in a season. Even that legendary efficiency wouldn’t be fairly sufficient to outweigh the harm Bell has achieved on stolen base makes an attempt all through his profession.

Making Bell’s poor baserunning all of the extra attention-grabbing is the truth that he isn’t even that gradual. To be clear, he’s gradual. However he’s hardly the slowest participant within the league. Greater than 50 certified runners had a slower common dash pace in 2024:

Josh Bell’s Velocity in 2024

Dash Velocity
Dash Velocity Percentile
HP to 1B
HP to 1B Percentile

25.4 toes per second
ninth
4.75 seconds
ninth

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

In reality, Bell really used to have above-average dash pace. He isn’t the quickest man round, however pace isn’t the entire story. Merely put, he’s simply dangerous at this:

Josh Bell’s Velocity Over the Years

Yr
Dash Velocity (ft/s)
Dash Velocity Percentile

2016
27.3
sixtieth

2017
27.2
57th

2018
27.1
54th

2019
26.7
forty eighth

2020
26.2
thirty third

2021
26.2
thirty fourth

2022
26.2
twenty fifth

2023
25.9
seventeenth

2024
25.4
ninth

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

To that time, Bell’s maladroitness isn’t restricted to stolen base makes an attempt. Since his debut in 2016, he has racked up -28.1 BsR. No energetic participant has a decrease baserunning worth in that point. And the primary cause for that low BsR? Working into outs at residence.

If you happen to’re aware of Bell’s model of baseball, I’m certain you’ll be able to image him trundling down the third final analysis whereas the ball sails previous and beats him to the plate by a number of toes. Naturally, he’ll attempt (and fail) to tug off an outlandish slide to keep away from the tag. With that picture in my head, I began trying into the numbers on a hunch, and I used to be more than happy to search out I used to be 100% right. No participant has harm his groups extra by operating into outs on the plate since he broke into the league:

Most Harm Completed on Outs on the Plate (2016-24)

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Cumulative run worth on “thrown out” performs at residence plate. Doesn’t embody optimistic worth from profitable advances or damaging worth from holds.

I invite you to sit down again and luxuriate in a compilation of a few of Bell’s worst outs at residence:

Like Colin Firth in Mamma Mia and Russell Crowe in Les Misérables, Michelle Yeoh is the newest in an extended line of Oscar-winning actors to faux their method by way of a musical position. And like Miguel Cabrera and Paul Konerko, Josh Bell is the newest in an extended line of sluggers to plod their method alongside the basepaths.

Maybe Bell’s coaches, teammates, and followers have lengthy been pissed off by his baserunning, however personally, I proceed to be impressed. Bell is proof that you simply don’t must be good at all the things to be good at one thing. He’s an admirable instance of a person persevering with to attempt one thing he simply isn’t good at. And if none of that sentimental stuff strikes you, nicely, at the very least we will all admit his baserunning antics are entertaining to look at.



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