Trevor Story’s Hunch and the By no means-Ending Saga of the Purple Sox Infield

After lacking vital chunks of the previous three seasons resulting from accidents — together with all however 26 video games final 12 months — Trevor Story has been wholesome sufficient to play in 48 of the Purple Sox’ first 51 video games. He hit nicely over the primary few weeks of the season, however currently he’s fallen right into a deep droop. With Boston struggling to climb above .500 however awash in promising younger gamers, he could wind up combating for his job.

The 32-year-old Story entered this season having performed simply 163 video games for the reason that Purple Sox signed him to a six-year, $140 million deal in March 2022. He performed simply 94 video games in 2022 resulting from a hairline fracture in his proper wrist and a contusion on his left heel, then simply 43 in ’23 after present process inside brace surgical procedure to restore a torn ulnar collateral ligament, and 26 final 12 months earlier than fracturing the glenoid rim and tearing the posterior labrum of his left shoulder. That’s not solely lots of time missed — mainly two seasons out of three — nevertheless it’s additionally time missed at a pivotal juncture in his profession. Even with out catastrophic accidents, not many gamers are the identical at 32 as they have been at 28, and the model of Story able to producing at the very least 20 homers and 20 steals whereas offering sturdy protection at shortstop could also be gone.

Via Wednesday, Story has hit for only a 65 wRC+, the seventh-lowest mark amongst AL qualifiers. That’s dangerous sufficient, however his latest efficiency seems even even worse if we merely cut up his sport log down the center, with 24 video games performed on all sides:

That’s a reasonably sad story for Story. He’s all the time been quite strikeout-prone, fanning an NL-high 191 occasions in 2017, and rating among the many NL’s prime 5 in strikeouts in every of the following two seasons as nicely, however over time, he trimmed his tendency to swing and miss, from a excessive of 34.4% in 2017 to 23.4% in ’21. He’s been above 30% in every of his injury-abbreviated seasons in Boston; his present charge is definitely his lowest in that span by an eyelash, although it nonetheless ranks third amongst AL qualifiers, and his complete of 61 strikeouts ranks first. In contrast to the 2 certified AL hitters with increased charges, Logan O’Hoppe and Byron Buxton, Story hasn’t been almost productive sufficient to disregard all of these strikeouts.

A take a look at varied breakdowns reveals that Story’s offense is mainly… breaking down. He’s chasing way more pitches than ever, swinging and lacking greater than ever, hitting the ball on the bottom greater than ever, pulling the ball lower than ever (notably within the air), and completely getting eaten alive by four-seam fastballs. Even with all of that, his general high quality of contact isn’t dangerous — nevertheless it’s been in too wanting a provide to prop up his manufacturing.

Selectivity appears to be a selected downside. When Story performed for the Rockies, he swung at 48.6% of all pitches, and 28% of these exterior the zone, charges that have been solely barely above league common. He had his ups and downs in these years, massive residence run totals and excessive slugging percentages that weren’t all the time so spectacular within the context of his residence ballpark, however for essentially the most half, his strategy labored. Over his first three seasons in Boston, he started swinging a bit extra typically (50.4% for 2022–24), however his chase charge took a much bigger leap, to 33.4%, and his manufacturing receded. This 12 months, he’s swinging at 55.6% of pitches and chasing 37.8%; the latter charge ranks in simply the sixth percentile, and the mix of these two charges suggests he’s urgent, increasing his zone and making an attempt to do an excessive amount of. And naturally, he’s lacking an entire lot. Story’s general swinging strike charge of 16.2% is over two factors increased than his 2022–24 charge with Boston (14.1%), and almost 4 factors forward of his charge with Colorado (12.4%).

In or out of the zone, Story is especially struggling towards four-seamers. He’s whiffing on 22.8% of these fastball whereas hitting simply .164 and slugging .180 towards them. His anticipated numbers towards the pitch (.182 xBA, .285 xSLG) don’t make a a lot stronger case. His Statcast run worth on fastballs (-7) is in a digital tie with Michael Toglia for the majors’ lowest.

“All of the metrics, all the knowledge that we’ve got — the bat velocity is there, his fingers are the place they’re presupposed to be. All the things seems OK,” stated supervisor Alex Cora of Story on Saturday. “The one factor we’re not doing proper now could be hitting the ball ahead.”

“Simply lacking his pitches,” Cora continued. “That’s the underside line. I do know he’s swinging loads, however he’s getting pitches within the zone and he’s fouling them off. And after that, [pitchers] get to work… 2-0, 3-1, [he] misses his pitches after which they bury him. Early on, he wasn’t doing that. He was really connecting and hitting the ball arduous. And currently it hasn’t occurred.”

To Cora’s level, Story has hit .265/.478/.460 after the rely will get to 2-0 for his profession. However this 12 months, in 19 plate appearances which have began that approach, he’s hitting simply .125/.263/.188; his 32 wRC+ in that context is the fifth lowest amongst gamers with at the very least 15 PA which have reached 2-0. Alongside those self same traces, the place he’s a profession .251/.573/.520 hitter after 3-1, he’s 0-for-6 with 4 walks and a hit-by-pitch in such conditions this 12 months, and hitting .156/.341/.281 in 41 PA when forward within the rely.

As soon as Story does make contact — at almost a career-low charge (70.8%) — issues aren’t precisely going nice. He’s hitting extra grounders than fly balls, one thing he’s by no means carried out earlier than; his 48.4% groundball charge is 14 factors above his carer mark, whereas his 1.41 groundball-to-fly-ball ratio is nearly double his 0.79 profession one. His 31.3% pull charge and seven% pulled air charge are each the bottom of his profession; the latter is lower than half of final 12 months’s earlier profession low, 14.8%. Provided that Story has hit .466 and slugged 1.717 on pulled air balls throughout his profession, you may see how that is likely to be an issue.

Given this litany, it’s at the very least a bit shocking to search out that a few of Story’s contact stats are fairly good. His 89.6-mph common exit velocity solely ranks within the forty third percentile, however his 10.2% barrel charge is within the 58th, and his 46.9% hard-hit charge within the seventieth. His bat velocity is a priority — it ranks within the twenty seventh percentile — however although he hardly ever squares up a ball (18.7%, fourth percentile), he does make some fairly stable contact. Once more, the larger downside is that he simply doesn’t make sufficient of it.

On the defensive aspect, Story has already performed extra innings at shortstop this 12 months (418 2/3) than in any season since coming to the Purple Sox; he spent 2022 at second base whereas Xander Bogaerts performed shortstop. His defensive metrics aren’t in an excellent place even throughout the small pattern (-3 DRS, -2 FRV). He has by no means posted a unfavourable DRS earlier than, and solely twice has he been within the purple with reference to his FRV. This season is a significant step down from the final two years, when he mixed for 10 DRS and eight FRV throughout 541 2/3 innings at shortstop.

Story’s struggles on either side of the ball feed into Boston’s largest downside this 12 months — an absence of manufacturing at any infield spot in addition to third base, the place the mid-February arrival of free agent Alex Bregman shook issues up in ways in which proceed to reverberate. Oddly sufficient, the way in which the dominoes are falling may assist protect Story’s job at a time when the prospect of treating him as a sunk price, or at the very least transferring him right into a bench position, has been raised by native media. He’s signed by way of 2027, and nonetheless owed about $70 million, together with $55 million after this season.

With six losses of their final 9 video games, the Purple Sox are actually 25-26, and between second base (internet 0.2 WAR), shortstop (-0.1 WAR), and first base (-0.6 WAR), they’ve been price a mixed half-win beneath alternative stage at these three spots. First base has not solely been their deepest sinkhole — the 4 gamers the crew has used there have mixed to hit .218/.286/.332 (68 wRC+) — nevertheless it’s develop into the brand new heart of the continued drama. Starter Triston Casas scuffled over the primary 5 weeks of the season earlier than rupturing his left patellar tendon on Could 2, which required season-ending surgical procedure. In some unspecified time in the future not lengthy afterwards, the Purple Sox brass requested Devers — who had been displaced from third base by the arrival of Bregman — to study first base on the fly. The slugger, nonetheless annoyed by the way in which the Purple Sox sprung DH obligation upon him however currently hitting the snot out of the ball, declined. In the meantime, Casas’ backup, Romy Gonzalez, has been out since Could 7 with a left quad contusion, and he not too long ago suffered a setback. Whereas Nick Sogard and Abraham Toro have shared the place since then, final week, rookie Kristian Campbell started understanding on the place, too.

Recall that the 22-year-old Campbell gained the second base job in spring coaching and inked a $60 million extension only a week into his main league profession. He’s nonetheless pretty new to the keystone, having performed 51 video games there within the minors and 34 in school — and it’s proven. His -8 DRS and -3 FRV each rank because the majors’ second-lowest marks of their respective classes, forward of solely the Nationals’ Luis García Jr. His offense has fallen off drastically with a 5-for-53 Could, reducing his general line to .231/.320/.378 (95 wRC+).

It’s not a carried out deal that Campbell will take over first base. “He’s studying the best way to play second base at this stage… that is nonetheless a piece in progress,” Cora stated final week. “Clearly, we’re throwing this at him, however we imagine he can really digest it. This isn’t like [Campbell] is enjoying first base tomorrow. We simply need to see the footwork, how he strikes, and go from there.”

If Campbell does take to first base, it might open the door for the crew to recall Marcelo Mayer, a 50-FV prospect who was ranked no. 57 on our Prime 100 Prospects checklist in February. The 22-year-old Mayer, the inheritor obvious to Story, performed shortstop for all however two of his skilled defensive appearances previous to this season, and dabbled at third in April, however currently, he’s begun getting second base reps at Triple-A Worcester, the place the plan is for him to play the place three or 4 video games every week. On the offensive aspect, he’s hit respectably however not exceptionally (.265/.344/.452, 109 wRC+).

“It solely is sensible to place these [developments] collectively [to see a path to the big leagues],” Mayer stated on Tuesday. “For me, [I’m] simply doing no matter I can each single day to prepare over there so when my time comes, I’m in a position to assist the crew.”

Such a plan wouldn’t preclude Mayer chopping into Story’s time at shortstop if the latter’s bat doesn’t perk up, however it might at the very least purchase the veteran time. If the Purple Sox do discover themselves in rivalry, they could find yourself dealing for a primary baseman, bumping Campbell — who has additionally performed 5 video games in heart discipline and two in left — again into an more and more crowded second base/outfield pool. That group may additionally embody 21-year-old prospect Roman Anthony (no. 2 in our February Prime 100), who’s been raking at a .316/.449/.510 (150 wRC+) clip whereas enjoying all three outfield positions at Worcester.

Story has missed a lot time since signing with the Purple Sox that our expectations of his capabilities could also be outmoded. Our rest-of-season Depth Charts projections (81 wRC+, 0.9 WAR) don’t paint a reasonably image, however proper now even these numbers could be an enchancment on his manufacturing. The Purple Sox could quickly should reckon with the truth of this chapter of the Story story.