Blue Jays place gamers reported to camp this morning for the membership’s first full-squad exercise of the spring, and famous person first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a deadline of immediately for extension talks with the membership forward of his closing season below membership management earlier than free company. That deadline has come and gone, and Guerrero advised reporters (together with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) this morning that the perimeters didn’t attain a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan provides that Guerrero doesn’t intend to barter throughout the season and now expects to succeed in free company, whereas Hazel Mae relays (Video Hyperlink) that Guerrero famous he “wouldn’t shut the door” on signing if Toronto brass offered him with a “reasonable” provide.
Guerrero, nonetheless simply 25 till March 16, is likely one of the most completed younger gamers within the league and is prone to enter free company as probably the most sought-after participant accessible. A four-time All-Star with a Gold Glove award at first base and two Silver Slugger awards below his belt, Guerrero is a .288/.363/.500 (137 wRC+) hitter for his profession. That kind of offensive expertise will at all times be engaging to golf equipment in free company, however what makes Guerrero stand out as a top-of-the-class hitter is his mixture of youth and ceiling.
Few hitters within the recreation can accomplish what Guerrero has in his peak seasons; his 2021 marketing campaign was second solely to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting as he hit .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+). His 48 house runs have been tied with Salvador Perez for probably the most within the majors that yr, and his .401 on-base share led the American League whereas trailing solely Juan Soto and Bryce Harper within the NL. Steps again offensively in 2022 and ’23 raised questions concerning whether or not that otherworldly efficiency is perhaps a fluke, however Guerrero squashed these issues by roughly repeating his 2021 heroics this previous season. Guerrero slashed a sensational .323/.396/.544 (165 wRC+) in 159 video games for the Jays this previous yr, hitting “simply” 30 homers within the course of however making up for that with a career-best 44 doubles and a 13.8% strikeout charge that was the bottom of his profession. Simply 9 certified MLB hitters struck out much less usually than Guerrero in 2024, and amongst that group solely Jose Ramirez and his 39-homer marketing campaign have been capable of prime Guerrero’s .221 remoted slugging share.
Reaching free company on the heels of his age-26 season ought to make Guerrero all of the extra enticing in free company come November. Guerrero will hit the open market only one yr older than Juan Soto was throughout his personal free company this previous winter, and that younger age was essential for Soto in securing his record-shattering deal that figures to pay him $765MM over the subsequent 15 years and will max out at greater than $800MM. That huge payday got here regardless of Soto being a restricted defender within the outfield corners who doesn’t present substantial worth on the basepaths. Whereas Soto is arguably in a category all his personal as a hitter, along with his profession 158 wRC+ practically matching Guerrero’s peak seasons, his file payday remains to be nice information for the Jays’ slugger as there’s arguably no higher comparability for Soto within the league than Guerrero at his peak.
Provided that, it’s straightforward to think about the bidding for Guerrero’s providers surpassing half of a billion {dollars}. That appears to be proper round the place Guerrero set the bar in extension talks with Toronto, as reviews concerning his asking value have urged he was searching for north of $450MM. As Passan notes, Guerrero answered with a easy “No” when requested if the Blue Jays had put forth a proposal that was near his value level, and given Guerrero mentioned earlier this winter that Toronto’s provide to him previous to Soto’s take care of the Mets sat at $340MM it’s arduous to argue along with his evaluation except the membership introduced their provide considerably greater over the course of the offseason.
Given the hole between the Guerrero’s rumored calls for and the provide he mentioned the Blue Jays made, it’s hardly a shock that the perimeters didn’t work out a deal. That’s mirrored in a ballot of MLBTR readers final month, the place simply 19.49% of respondents believed Guerrero would signal long-term with the membership earlier than immediately’s self-imposed deadline. Even so, Guerrero made clear to reporters that he’d nonetheless wish to be a Blue Jay for all times at the same time as he went on to notice that Toronto will now need to compete with 29 different golf equipment for his providers on the open market. However, he additionally famous (as relayed by Matheson) his want to win a World Sequence championship along with his subsequent membership. That want to win may damage the Blue Jays’ odds of maintaining Guerrero, as they completed useless final in a crowded AL East division with a 74-88 file. They look like longshots for the postseason this yr as effectively after the Yankees and Orioles augmented their already playoff-caliber golf equipment whereas the Purple Sox put collectively a robust offseason that noticed them add a number of star gamers in Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.
As for the entrance workplace’s perspective, membership GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters shortly after Guerrero did and expressed disappointment {that a} deal didn’t get achieved, as relayed by Matheson. Atkins went on to emphasise that the membership “labored very arduous” of their efforts to return collectively on a deal and added that the “motivation” on the group’s half to maintain their famous person within the fold is “nonetheless there.” Atkins refused to get into specifics concerning numbers and contract affords however described their provide to Guerrero as one that may’ve been record-setting for the Blue Jays and made Guerrero “one of many highest paid gamers” in baseball if signed (video hyperlink by way of Mae). Atkins additionally made clear that the membership’s lack of ability to get a deal achieved with Guerrero was not a matter of assets, although that’s hardly a shock given their high-dollar bids for Ohtani and Soto the previous two winters.
Going ahead, the Blue Jays determine to proceed attempting to win throughout Guerrero’s closing yr of membership management. They’ve lengthy resisted the opportunity of commerce talks involving their star slugger and, after spending $166MM so as to add Yimi Garcia, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free company this winter whereas including one other $96.5MM in commerce by taking up the Andres Gimenez contract from the Guardians, it appears unlikely that they’d change course now reasonably than push in for 2025 and hope they will persuade Guerrero to return subsequent offseason. It’s attainable that they may revisit the opportunity of dealing Guerrero on the commerce deadline this summer time in the event that they’ve fallen fully out of the playoff image by then, nonetheless, and if shopped Guerrero could be probably the most impactful rental moved at a commerce deadline since Manny Machado in 2018.
