When Geraldo Perdomo Assaults

It positive looks like the Diamondbacks knew one thing the remainder of us didn’t. Again in February, when Arizona signed shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to a four-year contract extension to maintain him round by means of the 2029 season, I wrote, “I feel the Diamondbacks are paying for ground relatively than ceiling. Nonetheless he will get there, if Perdomo retains performing like a two-win participant, the contract will work out nicely for either side.” Perdomo was coming off a knee damage and two straight seasons of completely common offensive efficiency. It might have regarded just like the Diamondbacks had been snug with that stage of manufacturing, however the 2025 season has put issues in a completely new gentle.

Perdomo has been unequivocally among the finest gamers in baseball. He leads all Nationwide League place gamers in bWAR, and if not for Shohei Ohtani, he would have an excellent argument for the MVP. Geraldo Perdomo, whom I first wrote about as a result of he was an amazing take a look at case for gamers with extraordinarily low exit velocities. Geraldo Perdomo, whose offensive strategy I summed up earlier this 12 months as, “Strive with all of your may to keep away from swinging.” Geraldo Perdomo, whose Twelfth-percentile hard-hit fee represents a career-high! That man has 6.7 WAR. That man has 19 dwelling runs after coming into this season with a mixed 14 for his main league profession, which started in 2021. That man is working a 138 wRC+ and not one of the superior numbers is saying it’s due to batted ball luck. Perdomo actually has been an amazing hitter. We’ve been all around the story. Michael Baumann has written about him twice, I’ve damaged down his breakout and documented considered one of his trademark swingless plate appearances. Now that October is close to, we have to acknowledge how massive a deal it’s that Perdomo has stored this going all season lengthy.

Perdomo has gotten larger and stronger. He’s modified his mechanics from either side of the plate. He’s by some means chasing and whiffing even lower than he did final season, and he’s by some means doing so whereas lifting the ball extra, swinging a bit more durable, and hitting the ball a bit more durable. We’ve damaged down all these factors within the articles I linked to above, so I’m not going cowl that floor once more. I’m right here to indicate you one graph that cracks me up.

That is from the final paragraph of my article again in February: “I’m so, so curious to see what it might appear to be if Perdomo had been to start out attacking the ball. He’s nonetheless younger, and I actually do assume it’s attainable that he has the capability to be greater than a mean hitter.” I’m not making an attempt to say I known as this. I undoubtedly didn’t. One sentence later, I wrote “Nonetheless, I don’t assume we must always anticipate that going ahead.” However Perdomo actually did begin attacking the ball in his personal means, so I can now present you what it appears like.

By way of common exit velocity, it doesn’t appear to be all that a lot. He’s working a career-high 87.6 mph, up half a tick from final season. That’s nonetheless solely sufficient to place him within the nineteenth percentile. Nonetheless, you already know higher than to only take a look at common EV and name it a day. His Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity jumped from 100.4 mph to 101.5. That’s a much bigger leap, however by way of percentiles, it solely strikes him from the 14th to the 18th. So, uh, that doesn’t appear to be that a lot both.

It’s spectacular that Perdomo can swing more durable, raise the ball extra with a steeper swing, and keep his absurdly excessive contact and squared-up charges. No matter the place you’re beginning out, that’s not usually how issues work. But it surely’s additionally not sufficient to earn him respect. For all the explanations within the earlier paragraph, pitchers nonetheless aren’t afraid of Perdomo, like in any respect. He ranks fifth amongst certified gamers in zone fee. He’s seen 873 pitches over the center of the plate. That’s probably the most within the recreation, and no person else is even shut. However Perdomo has the perfect hard-hit fee of his profession by a large margin, and that does matter. He’s by no means going to interrupt the ability scale, however let me present you Tom Tango’s graph for the thousandth time.

Going from a 25.8% hard-hit fee to a 31.5% hard-hit fee means crossing that threshold far more typically. Even should you’re simply barely crossing it, it’s nonetheless an enormous deal. There are far more hits on the fitting aspect of the road. The percentages have modified on all these pitchers who’re content material to let Perdomo put the ball in play. Perdomo continues to be not an enormous, highly effective man, however he’s obtained a brand new A-swing. Right here’s Baseball Savant’s distribution graph of his bat pace. That is for all swings.

Perdomo’s right-handed numbers from the 2025 season are in orange within the entrance. It’s nonetheless not as quick because the dotted line that represents the league common, and although its peak is greater than 1 mph increased than the peaks of the earlier seasons, its form doesn’t look all that completely different. It’s simply that the tails on both aspect are fatter. That’s actually noticeable on the left of the graph. Perdomo isn’t taking fewer super-weak, 57-63 mph swings than he did in earlier seasons. What he’s reduce down on are the medium-speed swings, and he’s getting off extra quick swings than ever earlier than. In different phrases, when he is aware of he has an opportunity to hit the ball laborious, he’s ensuring he does it. I do know that appears fairly delicate right here, and the distinction between the inexperienced and blue areas that symbolize his 2024 and 2025 stats batting left-handed is even smaller. However now we’re attending to the graph I actually need to present you, the one which has me cackling. Right here’s the identical actual factor, besides it solely exhibits the swings that lead to hard-hit balls.

Effectively that’s completely different! Look how far the 2025 distributions are from the 2024 ones. The blue left-handed peak is roughly 2 mph quicker than it was in 2024, and the orange right-handed peak is 5 mph quicker! Unexpectedly, Perdomo is getting his getting his cash’s price. He’s nonetheless glad to take a sluggish swing and put the ball in play – that’s why the tail on the left aspect of even this graph extends farther than in any of the earlier seasons. However not solely is he kicking into excessive gear extra typically, it’s a better gear than he ever had earlier than. Perdomo nonetheless doesn’t have the top-end bat pace to maintain up with the league common on the fitting aspect of the chart, however he’s means above that dotted distribution line till we get to 77 mph or so. He’s greater than doubled his fast-swing fee from 2024. That’s what it appears like when Perdomo begins attacking the ball, and it’s much more enjoyable than we may’ve hoped.