A number of articles in the past, I used to be participating in one among my favourite pastimes: making up the names of non-existent statistics. What can I say? I bought into writing as a result of I like lining phrases up in humorous methods. I bought into baseball writing as a result of I like baseball. However when the 2 issues I like line up, then we’re actually cooking with gasoline.
The faux statistic in query? Whomps per whiff. You possibly can grasp what it’s instantly: how usually you completely whomp the ball, as in comparison with how usually your swing leads to nothing however a tiny gust of air and maybe an emphatic umpire response. Is that this a predictive statistic? I don’t know in any respect, however I assumed I’d attempt to see who’s good at it.
The excellent news: The nice gamers are good. I outlined a whomp as a barrel, a whiff as a whiff, after which restricted it to gamers who noticed a minimum of 500 pitches in 2023. One of the best in baseball at it? Ronald Acuña Jr., who simply put up an all-time offensive season. Neat! Second greatest? Mookie Betts, who completed second in MVP voting behind Acuña. Possibly we’re on to one thing right here. Right here’s the highest 10 by that metric:
2023 Whomps Per Whiff Leaders
One factor that I like about this statistic is that it isn’t secretly rating gamers based mostly on their plate self-discipline. Betts doesn’t swing a lot, so he doesn’t whiff a lot. Seager is aggressive however selectively so. Luis Arraez is twelfth. Lars Nootbaar is thirteenth. These two are polar opposites who nonetheless are each good hitters.
As an additional advantage, the uncooked numbers look affordable regardless of mainly being nonsense. There’s no reasoning behind the size on whomps per whiff in any respect; it’s only one factor that I divided by one other factor. However I’ve already give you some simple guidelines of thumb for particular person seasons simply by taking a look at this record. Above .300 is unimaginable. Above .200 continues to be elite; solely 23 gamers in baseball had been at .200 or larger in 2023. League common is within the .115-.120 vary, and beneath .100 is fairly dangerous. Austin Hedges checked in at .009, worst in baseball amongst gamers who barreled up a minimum of one batted ball.
This isn’t a one-year phenomenon. Listed below are the highest 15 hitters of the Statcast period relating to whomps per whiff, minimal 2,000 pitches seen:
Statcast Period Whomps Per Whiff Leaders
Yeah, this record will most undoubtedly do. It has Alvarez, maybe essentially the most harmful hitter in baseball. It has Ortiz, who may need held that crown earlier than he retired. There are selective and highly effective varieties. There are guys like Decide and Alonso who obliterate the ball on contact. Ramírez and Betts are time-traveling sorcerers able to barreling the ball up with out uncooked energy. Nootbaar is nice and I attempt to get him on each record that I can.
This statistic isn’t a straight record of the most effective hitters – Nootbaar’s on there, for instance, and he’s solely top-of-the-line hitters in baseball in my creativeness. However I believe it’s a great way of taking a look at fascinating gamers, akin to Vinnie Pasquantino. He was on the verge of a breakout earlier than getting harm final 12 months, and he would have been an enormous story coming into 2024 if the Royals had a greater workforce round him.
Extra excellent news: In the event you’re whomping rather a lot for each whiff in a single 12 months, you’re more likely to do it once more sooner or later. Extra particularly, there’s a fairly robust r-squared between 12 months one whomps per whiff and 12 months two whomps per whiff: 0.368, to be exact. For comparability’s sake, wRC+ checks in at round 0.18.
Much more promising: Just like how FIP is extra correlated with future ERA than ERA is with future ERA, whomps per whiff is extra correlated with wRC+ from one 12 months to the subsequent than wRC+ is with itself. It’s not by rather a lot, and albeit, I really feel prefer it must be by much less, as a result of this statistic is certainly not capturing every little thing there may be to find out about hitting. It’s not adjusting for something in any respect, and it’s ignoring an enormous quantity of information. Acuña noticed almost 2,800 pitches in 2023, and I solely used 327 of them to give you this statistic.
May you do higher by including a whole lot of bells and whistles? Nearly definitely. I’ve to think about that the granular barrel cutoff is sweet however not nice; you might give you another means of defining whomps that might get at extra good contact. There’s nothing about taking dangerous pitches in right here, both. However I like that this statistic is ludicrously easy. It’s not making an attempt to be DRC+ or xwOBA or predictive this or that. It’s what number of occasions you whomp for each time that you simply whiff. Extra whomps are nice. Extra whiffs are dangerous. Finish of story.
OK, nice, not fairly finish of story. I used whomps per whiff to counsel some fascinating gamers for 2024 who you may need missed. First, we’ve bought Nelson Velázquez, who hit the snot out of the ball for the Royals in a cameo in 2023. The failings in his sport are apparent: He strikes out an excessive amount of. Nevertheless it’s much less disastrous than it appears at first blush. His pitch recognition isn’t significantly dangerous, however he misses pretty usually when he swings. And people misses aren’t occurring in a vacuum; they’re occurring as a result of he’s swinging actually onerous and making an attempt to pummel the ball. I like these sorts of gamers, and suppose that the probabilities of Velázquez handing over an ideal 2024 are sneakily excessive.
Max Kepler is form of a reverse Velázquez. He’s usually missed as a result of he’s been round for a very long time, not as a result of he’s nonetheless breaking in. He’s boring, I get it. A profession 103 wRC+ over 3,800 plate appearances is the statistical equal of a sleeping emoji. However he’s bought some fascinating stuff occurring underneath the hood, had an ideal 2023, and did it by whomping the ball whereas sustaining his customary glorious plate self-discipline. Yeah, his BABIP is disappointing yearly, however think about me a Kepler believer.
Pasquantino doesn’t fairly rely as an missed participant, as a result of he’s drawn hype from FanGraphs and different numbers-y sources for some time now. However how about Dominic Canzone? He had a desultory 2023 debut in Seattle, however he did so with some spectacular peripherals. He’s an influence monster with questionable swing selections; he needs to hit every little thing to Jupiter — the planet, that’s, not the spring coaching residence of the Cardinals and Marlins in Florida. However he makes fairly good contact for somebody who bops as onerous as he does, and I’m desirous about seeing a full season of him.
A fast velocity spherical of different fascinating names, akin to this group of catchers on the prime. Sean Murphy did properly right here regardless of working out of gasoline within the second half. Scorching free brokers Mitch Garver and Gary Sánchez each graded out properly. Keibert Ruiz is a post-hype sleeper at this level, and if his protection is as dangerous because it graded out in 2023, this record received’t save him. However he has outrageous bat management and will sneak onto this record in Michael Brantley/Luis Arraez model if he performs properly sufficient behind the plate to proceed catching, and I believe that’s fascinating for a Nats workforce that actually wants the assistance.
Final however not least, I believe that this statistic does an ideal job of explaining a few of my participant crushes from current years, and I believe a number of of these guys are higher than their reputations would counsel. Tommy Pham, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Wilmer Flores are gamers so boring that you simply’d swear they had been made in a lab to play on the present iteration of the Giants. Two of them already do, and admit it, you wouldn’t be stunned if Pham finally ends up by the bay. Precise new Big Jorge Soler whomps fairly properly per whiff, too. Possibly the Giants have some intelligent inside identify for this precise statistic.
I’ll go away you to experiment with it from there. However as is generally the case after I take current stats and contort them previous a spot the place you possibly can simply discover them on a FanGraphs leaderboard, I’ve made my very own. If you wish to see a listing of whomps per whiff leaders each for 2023 and for the Statcast period, you possibly can merely click on right here. Have a enjoyable time exploring the joke statistic that really appears to be nice, and I’ll discuss to you once more quickly.
