The 2025 Method 1 season might be the most effective in a technology. Virtually half the sector of 20 drivers heading into the season opener in Australia can dream of title glory.
That is based mostly on the outcomes of the 2024 championship — an unexpectedly shut season the place Pink Bull initially dominated, earlier than McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes completed robust.
These 4 groups and 7 of their eight drivers shared all of the victories from the 24 races final 12 months. These had been the best totals for race-winning groups and drivers because the 2012 and 2021 seasons.
However because the 2025 marketing campaign will get underway, the brand new season might even be higher than the final.
“This season ought to be epic and even nearer,” Zak Brown, the McLaren group’s chief government, mentioned on the F1 75 Reside occasion in London final month.
“Each race final 12 months, whereas the highest 4 groups had been all the time on the entrance, there all the time appeared to be somebody that was capable of disrupt,” Brown mentioned. “So, I anticipate that to be taking place once more. I wouldn’t be stunned if there have been greater than 4 groups that received this time.”
Nevertheless it’s not simply on the entrance of the sector the place the 2025 season is anticipated to be tight. The six groups with slower vehicles had been additionally evenly cut up final 12 months. In the long run, all of them scored factors, and Stake F1 Crew Kick Sauber made its automobile sooner on the finish of the 12 months, the place it completed final within the constructors’ standings.
In qualifying for the 2024 season finale in Abu Dhabi in December, the time hole between the quickest of the 20 vehicles (Lando Norris of McLaren) and the slowest (Jack Doohan of Alpine) was simply 0.803 seconds. On the season opener in Bahrain in March, the qualifying hole between quickest and slowest vehicles was 1.039 seconds.
The shortage of rule modifications on automobile designs that groups should work round this 12 months is one issue that would end in even nearer racing. This reduces the probability that any group will discover a breakthrough half to make their vehicles significantly sooner.
“Yearly rules don’t change, it will get nearer and nearer — that’s simply the best way it’s all the time labored,” Norris mentioned final month. “It already acquired fairly shut on the finish of final 12 months, and also you already began to see the center pack, which is a lot of the grid other than the highest 4 groups, catching up and getting nearer.
“I solely anticipate that to be much more the case on this season.”
However not everybody, nonetheless, is getting carried away. Max Verstappen of Pink Bull, who beat Norris for the 2024 drivers’ title, mentioned, “It’s good for the game if it’s thrilling,” however emphasised how the groups are likely to masks the true efficiency of their vehicles forward of the primary race every year.
“It could be good, nevertheless it’s unimaginable to reply proper now,” he mentioned. “You’ll be able to speculate about it, nevertheless it’s only a waste of power to consider that but.”
Pierre Gasly of Alpine agreed with Verstappen.
“Deep inside me, I hope the sector is extraordinarily tight,” Gasly mentioned. “However I don’t wish to be upset if we come to Australia and all of the sudden we have now rival groups flying.”
However he predicted, due to the mix of how 2024 ended and the automobile design stability, that “on paper, it will likely be a type of seasons” the place margins could be very small among the many groups.
If this does show true, there may be the potential that Method 1 will get a yearlong title battle between a number of groups for the primary time since 2021.
Though Ferrari battled Pink Bull at the beginning of 2022 and McLaren and different groups pressured Pink Bull late final 12 months, 2021 was the final time two groups had been evenly matched from begin to end.
That 12 months, it was Pink Bull versus Mercedes, led by Lewis Hamilton. However, if 4 groups or extra do have interaction for the 2025 title, it will likely be probably the most aggressive championship battle since 2010, when Pink Bull, Ferrari and McLaren had been the contenders. 4 drivers from these three groups had the potential to win heading into the ultimate race. Pink Bull and its star driver then, Sebastian Vettel, finally triumphed.
Norris mentioned, “You’re in all probability going to have this season with winners that aren’t top-four groups, that aren’t McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes or Pink Bull.”
“Which is nice for Method 1,” he added.
However George Russell of Mercedes insisted that “if you take a look at how dominant McLaren had been within the second half of final 12 months, doubtless they’re the favorites going into this 12 months.”
That’s as a result of McLaren received 5 of the ultimate 12 races in 2024, probably the most of any group, and beat Ferrari and Pink Bull for the constructors’ championship.
All of the groups should additionally address the extra problem of planning their 2026 vehicles to new, and really completely different, design guidelines which can be coming. On the similar time, they need to make sure that their 2025 vehicles nonetheless get sooner.
All of them have a finite quantity of assets to attain this stability inside Method 1’s monetary guidelines, generally known as the fee cap.
“I feel why it’s going to be so attention-grabbing is whoever continues to develop will in all probability win the championship, however you’ll pay the worth in 2026,” Russell mentioned.
“So, groups who come out of the blocks and see it’s an in depth battle, they may proceed to develop. However we additionally noticed it in 2021. Mercedes stopped creating and fine-tuned the automobile and located large efficiency within the second half of the 12 months.
“Naturally, all the time in that ultimate 12 months of rules,” he continued, “it turns into shut, however I nonetheless anticipate McLaren to be proper on the forefront.”
