The Massive Brief

Having lived by way of the Nice Mounted-Gear Increase-Bust Cycle Of The Early twenty first Century, I’d prefer to say I emerged stronger consequently, however sadly this isn’t true. If something the expertise has deeply traumatized me, as a result of I do know all too effectively that regardless of how excessive we could also be flying we will come crashing down once more at any second. That’s why as everybody else runs round fortunately graveling as if the great instances won’t ever finish I can’t assist feeling as if this entire factor has “bubble” written throughout it:

I requested the AI to generate a picture for “This Entire Gravel Factor Has Bubble Written All Over It” and that’s what I obtained. Nice, gravel with bubbles in it. Is there even a tread sample for that? Fast, any person ask Jan Heine!

However sure, there are indicators that the gravel bubble is about to burst. For instance, tastemaker Ultraromance (broadly acknowledged because the Warren Buffet of Jorts) is now providing a bespoke mid-reach brake street bike:

Hey, a few of us have been driving mid-reach street bikes earlier than they have been cool:

Nonetheless, clearly the medium-reach street bike is poised to turn out to be the brand new gravel bike.

However to essentially know the place gravel stands it’s essential to go the place the rubber meets the street–or the gravel, or the bubble-infused gravel–and that’s Craigslist. See, the bike trade and its mouthpieces within the media let you know solely what they need you to consider, however it’s on Craigslist the place you get to see what’s actually occurring. That’s why I created the BSNYC GMI:

So what’s been occurring since then? With spring across the nook, are riders growing their gravel holdings, or are they divesting? Properly, a easy seek for “gravel” on the New York Metropolis Craigslist is kind of revealing. For instance, it yields this Pinarello Dyodo:

Severely, Pinarello made an electrical gravel bike, and so they named it the “Dyodo?”

Huh, I had no concept that’s what “Raphus cucullatus” meant. If I needed to guess, I’d have thought it was Latin for “The Crotch of the Rapha:”

[Two Raphi cucullati side by side.]

Anyway, I wished to study extra in regards to the Pinarello Dodo, so I discovered a evaluation:

I suppose they discovered it heavy:

As a Rivendell rider I’m aghast that anybody would contemplate 28lbs hefty in any respect, not to mention too hefty to trip with out a motor. Hey, right here’s an thought for Pinarello: what a couple of bike that weighs underneath 20lbs and has no motor in any respect? I guess that will be tremendous quick!

Any individual ought to look into that.

Anyway, in line with the evaluation the Dodo price $8,000 when it was new, and this one’s listed for $4,150. That’s almost a 50% haircut, and with driving season imminent no much less! And that’s not the one e-gravel bike on Craigslist, both:

Be mindful a brand new Turbo Creo SL Comp Carbon EVO (I’m out of breath simply typing that) prices over $7,000:

Which will appear excessive, however consider it’s not solely a Turbo, but additionally an SL and an EVO! Specialised are actually going all-in on the car-inspired phrase salad naming conventions, aren’t they? Regardless, that is one other assisted bike provided at a steep low cost, so clearly the underside is falling out of the electro-gravel market.

However what in regards to the different finish of the spectrum? How are metal gravel bikes with mechanical shifting going? Properly right here’s a Velo Orange Move Hunter:

It was constructed by Bernie!

Apparently I’m imagined to know who that’s. In fact I do know who Velo Orange is, however in case you don’t they’re the Bizarro Soma:

And right here’s one other Move Hunter, constructed in a different way however equally priced:

When analyzing the market, it’s essential to contemplate why persons are promoting, and on this case the proprietor needs higher tire clearance:

I can see that the vendor is on the fence, and if I have been his advisor I’d inform him to carry. Tires are getting too large, and the upcoming medium-reach brake development is a transparent indicator that the marketplace for large tires is about to contract. Issues have been getting too large for too lengthy, and I think the entire large tire factor is quickly going to blow utterly off the rim and depart buyers coated in sealant, economically talking.

As for the gravel conversion market, the state of it’s all the time an essential indicator, and presently indicators aren’t good:

The vendor notes that “inquiries asking whether or not that is nonetheless accessible will probably be ignored,” which suggests he’s irritated that he’s nonetheless obtained it, which suggests the market is clearly stagnant.

Additionally, is there anyplace on the earth the place an aluminum Trek is uncommon?

And talking of Treks…

…it’s “gravel bike prepared:”

Is there any bike that’s not gravel prepared at this level? Definitely classic tobacco collaboration (tobacollabo?) bikes are:

See?

And so are classic automotollabo bikes:

See?

Gravel mania already and we’re barely into March. Get out whilst you nonetheless can!