Options, Options: Cody Bellinger Returns to the Cubs

For as sturdy as his 2023 marketing campaign had been, and for as properly positioned as he was on this winter’s market, Cody Bellinger‘s free company was all the time hampered by questions of sustainability. His debut season with the Cubs adopted two unsettlingly unhealthy years with the Dodgers, and the metrics underlying final season’s resurgence have been comparatively modest relative to his manufacturing, elevating the likelihood if not the chance of regression. In gentle of these points, whilst he positioned third on our Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist heading into the offseason and reportedly sought a contract as excessive as $250 million, it appeared fairly possible he’d come away with significantly much less. He did, agreeing to return to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal, one which comprises opt-outs after the primary two seasons, and one which was nonetheless pending a bodily as of this writing.

Successfully, this can be a pillow contract, negotiated by the agent who created the time period, Scott Boras. The 28-year-old Bellinger will get the chance to point out that his 2023 efficiency was no fluke, with two probabilities earlier than his age-30 season to safe a a lot greater payday. He’s assured $30 million in 2024, with salaries of $30 million in ’25 and $20 million in ’26 if he hasn’t exercised his opt-outs, in line with ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Bellinger got here to the Cubs after an eventful 10-year run within the Dodgers’ group, one which started when the son of former utilityman Clay Bellinger was drafted within the fourth spherical out of an Arizona highschool in 2013. He hit 39 dwelling runs whereas successful NL Rookie of the 12 months honors in 2017, and smacked 47 homers two years later whereas taking dwelling the NL MVP award. His well timed hitting and spectacular fielding throughout the 2020 postseason helped the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988, however a type of well timed hits precipitated his fall. Celebrating what proved to be the decisive dwelling run in Sport 7 of the 2020 NLCS in opposition to the Braves, the exuberant Bellinger dislocated his proper (non-throwing) shoulder after bashing forearms with teammate Enrique Hernández. He underwent arthroscopic labrum surgical procedure after the World Sequence, began slowly in spring coaching, after which within the fourth sport of the season suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula, knocking him out for eight weeks. Unable to seek out his rhythm as he recovered from each shoulder and leg points, he hit a ugly .165/.240/.302 (47 wRC+) with -1.0 WAR in 350 plate appearances, although he confirmed indicators of life throughout the playoffs when he adopted a shortened swing with decrease hand placement; he hit .353/.436/.471 (146 wRC+) throughout 39 plate appearances in 12 postseason video games. Whereas he obtained off to a strong begin in 2022, he couldn’t keep it regardless of endlessly tinkering together with his swing. Distinctive protection in heart discipline stored him within the lineup, however he hit simply .210/.265/.389 (83 wRC+) with 1.8 WAR, and was nontendered following the season.

Lower than three weeks later, Bellinger agreed to a one-year take care of the Cubs, one which paid him $12.5 million for 2023 with a $1 million bonus for successful NL Comeback Participant of the 12 months honors (which he did) and a $5 million buyout on a $25 million mutual possibility for ’24. He declined his finish of the choice in addition to the $20.325 million qualifying supply he acquired, and entered the market as the highest free agent place participant, behind solely pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto on our checklist.

For Bellinger, final 12 months’s change of surroundings proved to be simply what the physician ordered. Reuniting with Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly and assistant Johnny Washington, each of whom he had labored with within the Dodgers’ system, Bellinger centered on adjusting his mechanics, significantly with reference to his hand placement and again hip, permitting him to make use of his decrease physique higher. He additional tailored his method by pulling the ball with much less frequency than at any time since his rookie season, and shortening his swing with two strikes to give attention to contact. The outcome was his finest season since 2019, as he hit .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers and 20 steals in 130 video games — he missed practically 4 weeks with a left knee contusion — whereas reducing his strikeout charge from 27.3% to fifteen.6%. Coupled with strong protection in heart discipline, his 4.1 WAR tied for Twentieth within the NL and was the second-best displaying of his profession.

Bellinger’s intent is price noting when digging into his underlying metrics, as he sacrificed some energy in trade for contact en path to the bottom exit velocity, barrel charge, and hard-hit charge of his profession:

Bellinger’s barrel charge positioned in simply the twenty seventh percentile, his exit velo within the twenty second percentile, and his hard-hit charge within the tenth percentile. He outdid his anticipated slugging proportion by 91 factors, and his anticipated wOBA by 43 factors; each gaps ranked third within the majors amongst batting title qualifiers (502 PA). Then again, his .279 AVG and .312 wOBA with two strikes ranked second and seventh within the majors, thanks largely to his consistency in accumulating hits regardless of gentle contact, a subject that MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and our personal Esteban Rivera each investigated.

All of that created one thing of a puzzle for Bellinger’s suitors — most prominently the Blue Jays (thought-about the favorites to signal him as of mid-December) and Giants, with the Mariners and Yankees additionally related to him through rumors. Bellinger’s deal all the time appeared unlikely to method the new air of the $200 million-plus Borasphere, however in our Prime 50 train, Ben Clemens projected him to get a six-year, $150 million contract, and our crowdsource anticipated a six-year, $144 million one. Different shops went even greater.

Because the Blue Jays dragged their ft this winter, the Giants turned to Jung Hoo Lee, and the Cubs refused to behave like a large-market crew, Bellinger’s anticipated market by no means totally materialized, with the aforementioned points undoubtedly enjoying an element, as properly. By ZiPS, he did properly to get as a lot as he did:

ZiPS initiatives only a three-year, $70 million contract for that forecast, per Dan Szymborski, although maybe that’s not shocking on condition that Bellinger has had only one good season out of the final three. Based mostly on the percentile breakdowns, it seems the system offers him solely a few 10% to twenty% likelihood of matching or exceeding final 12 months’s efficiency:

Bellinger most likely doesn’t should match his 2023 numbers to justify opting out, and he does have two probabilities to determine when to enter the market once more. Nonetheless, a mediocre 2024 adopted by a powerful ’25 would most likely go away groups with related inquiries to those they confronted this winter.

As for a way he suits into the Cubs, the important thing phrase is flexibility. The crew already had Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, each coming into their age-29 seasons and on multi-year offers, set for the outfield corners. Previous to Bellinger’s re-signing, Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Twentieth-ranked prospect on our Prime 100 checklist, appeared more likely to take over because the Chicago’s common heart fielder. A 2020 first-round decide acquired from the Mets within the Javier Báez commerce on the ’21 deadline, Crow-Armstrong hit a mixed .283/.365/.511 (127 wRC+) in 73 video games at Double-A Tennessee and 34 video games at Triple-A Iowa. He went simply 0-for-14 with three walks and two sacrifice hits in a cup of espresso with the Cubs, although to be truthful, he began simply three of the 13 video games during which he appeared. He’s thought-about an elite heart fielder who’s fearless on the basepaths and will produce at the least common energy. “If he can plug that gap over time, he’ll be a five-tool famous person,” wrote our prospect crew of Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin. “Extra possible, he’ll have some 20-25 homer seasons amid a ton of strikeouts and a low OBP, with peak years resembling Mike Cameron’s (although virtually definitely to not that degree of annual consistency).”

Given Crow-Armstrong’s age (he turns 22 on March 25) and modest quantity of upper-level expertise, it all the time appeared doable that he would begin the season within the minors earlier than rejoining the Cubs. Now it might seem much more possible. If he hits his approach again to the majors in a rush, the Cubs might use him in heart discipline and play Bellinger at first base, the place lefty-swinging rookie Michael Busch was slated to be the starter or at the least the lengthy half of a platoon with righty Patrick Knowledge. The 26-year-old Busch, no. 84 on our prospect checklist, is taken into account a bat-only prospect who final performed first base usually at North Carolina, and who could also be higher suited to DH obligation. Alternately, Bellinger has expertise in each left discipline (315.1 innings, although none since 2018) and proper (989 innings, the majority of them in 2019), and Happ has expertise at each defensive place besides shortstop and catcher, although he hasn’t performed the infield since 2021, when he totaled 36 innings, principally at second base. Additionally within the class of transferring elements is Christopher Morel, who final 12 months noticed time in any respect three outfield positions plus second base, shortstop, and third base; he was projected to get the majority of the work at DH but additionally to be within the third base combine together with Nick Madrigal. Suffice to say that new supervisor Craig Counsell may have choices for how you can piece his lineup collectively, and {that a} clearer image might emerge throughout spring coaching.

By way of our Depth Charts projections, right here’s a comparability of how the state of affairs regarded earlier than the signing and instantly after, by way of estimated plate appearances:

When it comes to general enjoying time, the true loser of the Bellinger deal is Mike Tauchman, a succesful heart fielder who hit .252/.363/.377 (107 wRC+) final 12 months, with Crow-Armstrong, Madrigal, and Knowledge additionally dropping substantial time. Remember the fact that all of that is based mostly on finest guesses simply as exhibition season has opened, and earlier than the Cubs have even confirmed the deal. Rather a lot might nonetheless change.

Notably with the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, and Reds every projected to win between 79 and 85 video games, the NL Central is anticipated to be a dogfight. Any impactful addition may very well be the distinction between reaching the postseason — one thing the Cubs haven’t achieved since 2020 — and staying dwelling. By bringing again Bellinger, the crew has given itself a greater shot at enjoying in October with out assuming an enormous long-term danger. Bellinger, for his half, will get to return to a snug state of affairs with a contending crew, whereas additionally realizing that he can play his approach into an even bigger contract. It will likely be fascinating to see how this all unfolds.