Which NASCAR Cup playoff drivers will fall within the Spherical of 12?

The second spherical of the 2025 NASCAR Cup playoffs takes the highest degree of the game by New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and can finish with an elimination race on the Charlotte Roval.

Alex Bowman, Shane van Gisbergen, Austin Dillon, and Josh Berry have didn’t advance, and whereas Motorsport.com didn’t get 100% in our first-round exit predictions, that will not cease us from giving it our greatest go for the Spherical of 12.

Senior NASCAR editor Matt Weaver received 50% appropriate as he predicted Berry and Dillon’s early eliminations, however each Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric did handle to maneuver on. Longtime information supervisor Nick DeGroot additionally received 50%, appropriately choosing Berry and Dillon, however incorrectly naming Tyler Reddick and Cindric.

The No. 2 Penske driver proved each of us incorrect, transferring on even after his Ford Mustang went up in flames within the closing laps of the Bristol cutoff race.

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Matt Weaver’s Spherical of 12 eliminations

Chase Elliott with injury, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Picture by: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures

Chase Elliott: That is the spherical the place there’s all the time one actual shock elimination. However the factor is, by Elliott’s personal summation, this is not a championship caliber program proper now. That does not imply they can not flip it on. The truth is, it’s simply as seemingly they win the championship as it’s they get eradicated. New Hampshire goes to be actually vital for the Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 crew as a result of they contended for the win at flat monitor Gateway, however that can be a unique guidelines bundle so it’s an open query which Elliott exhibits up.

Austin Cindric: There isn’t something significantly incorrect with how the Penske No. 2 crew is performing proper now however that is the spherical the place getting stage factors each time and each race, whereas additionally difficult for top-5s is vital if you begin beneath the cutline. The season-long physique of labor simply isn’t there proper now to recommend they’re, however Cindric can be a Penske automobile — surviving this spherical could also be an extended shot.

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Picture by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Pictures

Ross Chastain: Much like Cindric, the season lengthy physique of labor isn’t there, however you additionally sort of count on a win out of nowhere within the playoffs yearly. It will be fortuitous for the Trackhouse Racing No. 1 crew if it comes whereas they’re nonetheless championship eligible. It is a crew has discovered sufficient to advance to the ultimate 4 earlier than, so that you by no means low cost expertise, however that is simply the knife to a gunfight stage of the playoffs.

Tyler Reddick: The Southern 500 was a much-needed increase for the 23XI Racing No. 45 crew however they’re nonetheless not acting at their 2024 ranges and they’re beginning this spherical on the very backside of the pylon. On one hand, Toyota is exhibiting probably the most pace proper now however alternatively, Reddick and Billy Scott simply aren’t capitalizing on it usually. Their first spherical efficiency gained’t be sufficient this time round.

Nick DeGroot’s Spherical of 12 eliminations

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing Toyota

Picture by: Sean Gardner / Getty Pictures

Tyler Reddick: Reddick is an odd case. He gained the common season title in 2024, and made all of it the best way to the Championship 4, however he’s now the one winless driver left within the 2025 title struggle. Outdoors of a stellar exhibiting within the Southern 500, the No. 45 has been far off from the place he was only one 12 months in the past. If not for that exhibiting at Darlington, the Spherical of 16 might have been the top of his playoff run. Whereas his teammate continues to impress, Reddick hasn’t proven us a lot by way of pace.

Austin Cindric: Most believed Cindric could be a first-round exit, so it already seems like he’s on borrowed time right here. If he can show us incorrect but once more and transfer on into the Spherical of 8, that may be unbelievable, however the information simply do not assist it occurring. He has 5 high tens this 12 months, and a mean end of twentieth simply is not going to chop it on this spherical. 

Joey Logano, Crew Penske Ford

Picture by: Jonathan Bachman – Getty Pictures

Joey Logano: It is not an even-numbered 12 months, so Logano merely cannot win the title if you happen to imagine in popular culture numerology. However in all seriousness, this shall be a troublesome spherical for the three-time champion. Logano isn’t an awesome street course racer, so the Roval shall be a problem. The truth is, he was eradicated on this spherical one 12 months in the past — earlier than a post-race disqualification resurrected his title run. Logano is excellent at getting rather a lot out of his tools and he must be respectable sufficient at NHMS and Kansas, however he begins out beneath the cutline. Logano must achieve floor on some very quick automobiles simply forward of him, and whereas I do not count on him to go down with no struggle, this may seemingly be it for the No. 22 this 12 months.

Kyle Larson: Now, this may be a shocker, however Hendrick Motorsports simply have not been themselves up to now within the playoffs. They already misplaced Alex Bowman, and I imagine they may lose one other driver on this spherical. He has a 24-point buffer to play with, however Larson completed nineteenth, twelfth, and thirty second within the first spherical, and he hasn’t gained a race since Could. As we noticed at Bristol, Larson has additionally been making some unforced errors in current months, and one other wreck might simply finish his playoffs.

Who will barely advance?

Matt says Joey Logano: That is simply what he does. Certain, that is an odd-numbered season so his last 4 years solely come on even-numbered campaigns however that’s not authentic statistical evaluation. Till Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe discover race profitable pace once more, which may very well be any week now as a result of there’s a physique of labor to recommend they may, Logano will do what’s requested of him to maintain the warfare going even on the expense of a weekly battle. It may be right down to a few factors on the Roval however the Penske 22 will proceed to attract the ire of followers who will as soon as once more decry his lack of championship caliber statistics.

Nick says Ross Chastain: The entire information level to the Spherical of 12 being the top of Chastain’s playoff journey, however the one factor stopping me from choosing him is the tracks that make up this spherical. He gained at Kansas one 12 months in the past, and people sorts of 1.5-mile tracks are the place Chastain shines. There’s additionally a street course on this spherical, and his teammate is none apart from Shane van Gisbergen. That is going to be invaluable, however Chastain himself has certified inside the highest 5 for 3 of the final 4 street programs, which might set him up nicely to attain plenty of stage factors on the Roval. His weakest monitor shall be NHMS, and but, he scored a high ten there final 12 months — and let’s not neglect, Chastain is one in every of simply three drivers who received to participate on this summer season’s tire check on the Magic Mile. 

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